Orbiter-Forum  

Go Back   Orbiter-Forum > Far Side of the Moon > Spaceflight News
Register Blogs Orbinauts List Social Groups FAQ Projects Mark Forums Read

Notices

Spaceflight News Share news, stories, or discussions about government and private spaceflight programs; including ESA, ISS, NASA, Russian Space Program, Virgin Galactic, & more!

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 04-26-2012, 02:25 AM   #91
Hartmann
Orbinaut
Default

The last time that i saw something like this was when Howard Hughes builded USNS Glomar Explorer with the porpouse to extract Manganese modules from the sea floor .This cover story became very influential, spurring many others to examine the idea. But it was a secret plan to recover K-129 , a soviet submarine lost in April 1968.

I hope that this could be for real and not a marketing operation or something like this.


Hartmann is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
Old 04-26-2012, 02:59 AM   #92
Mandella
Space Cultist
 
Mandella's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hartmann View Post
 The last time that i saw something like this was when Howard Hughes builded USNS Glomar Explorer with the porpouse to extract Manganese modules from the sea floor .This cover story became very influential, spurring many others to examine the idea. But it was a secret plan to recover K-129 , a soviet submarine lost in April 1968.

I hope that this could be for real and not a marketing operation or something like this.

Ya know, if they've detected a monolith out there on an asteroid, and this is the cover story to get Floyd and HAL out there to look at it...

Fine. We take what we can get.

Mandella is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2012, 01:40 PM   #93
RGClark
Mathematician
 
RGClark's Avatar
Default

In regards to the reason for this endeavor, several studies have shown many of the important metals for high technology such as platinum at present global growth rates, especially in the emerging economies such as China, will be depleted within decades:

Earth's natural wealth: an audit
23 May 2007
NewScientist.com news service
David Cohen
http://www.science.org.au/nova/newsc.../027ns_005.htm

If these reports are true, and there is some uncertainty in the estimates, then such asteroid mining missions might turn out to be not amusing topics of discussion, but actual necessities.


Bob Clark

Last edited by RGClark; 04-27-2012 at 12:12 PM. Reason: clarity
RGClark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2012, 01:44 PM   #94
Urwumpe
Certain Super User
 
Urwumpe's Avatar

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RGClark View Post
 In regards to the reason for this endeavor, several studies have shown many of the important metals for high technology such as platinum at present global growth rates, especially in the emerging economies such as China, will be depleted within decades:
I would be careful with extrapolations. Some century ago, people estimated that in the year 2000, we would be living below meters of horse excrement.

Also your study ignores the development of platinum recycling - a lot of the platinum is actually in old cars and can be recycled, though with a hefty price.
Urwumpe is online now   Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
Old 04-26-2012, 01:46 PM   #95
T.Neo
SA 2010 Soccermaniac
 
T.Neo's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Asteroid Mining No Crazier Than Deep-Sea Drilling, Advocates Say
I don't know much about deep-sea drilling, and I don't think anyone really knows that much about how to mine asteroids at this point, but that sounds like a pretty bad analogy to me. The environment they're working in is totally different, the resources they're trying to extract have a totally different nature, the hardware on the asteroid has to face an entirely different set of challenges and needs entirely different solutions.

Not to mention the fact that getting your hardware to the work site is a whole lot more expensive. Sinking stuff is so cheap that people do it even when they don't want to.
T.Neo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2012, 02:07 PM   #96
Urwumpe
Certain Super User
 
Urwumpe's Avatar

Default

Also, even the deepest point of the ocean is now just 2 hours away - in two hours we can't even reach the moon currently.
Urwumpe is online now   Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
Old 04-27-2012, 08:46 AM   #97
Sky Captain
Orbinaut
 
Sky Captain's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by T.Neo View Post
 I don't know much about deep-sea drilling, and I don't think anyone really knows that much about how to mine asteroids at this point, but that sounds like a pretty bad analogy to me. The environment they're working in is totally different, the resources they're trying to extract have a totally different nature, the hardware on the asteroid has to face an entirely different set of challenges and needs entirely different solutions.

Not to mention the fact that getting your hardware to the work site is a whole lot more expensive. Sinking stuff is so cheap that people do it even when they don't want to.
I think they were comparing deep sea drilling to asteorid mining because both operations are extremely challenging and require massive multi billion initial investment to turn profit, the profit part being big unknown in case of asteorid mining. In both cases major mistakes and screwups also cost billions to fix.
Deep sea drilling had the advantage it developed incrementaly, people didn't immediatly go from land drillling to deap sea drilling requiring fully robotic operations. They started in shallow waters easily accesible to human divers and then gradually built up technology and experiance to access gas and oil reserves located in deep ocean.
In case of asteorid mining even first steps are multi billion endeavours and probability of multi billion failure very high because nothing like that has ever done before.
Sky Captain is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
Old 04-27-2012, 12:31 PM   #98
RGClark
Mathematician
 
RGClark's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Urwumpe View Post
 I would be careful with extrapolations. Some century ago, people estimated that in the year 2000, we would be living below meters of horse excrement.

Also your study ignores the development of platinum recycling - a lot of the platinum is actually in old cars and can be recycled, though with a hefty price.
True. And that article seems to imply the uncertainty in the estimates is due to how the producers are reporting their stocks and expected remaining mine-able ore. So clearly it must be determined how accurate these reported amounts are, i.e., if there really is impending scarcity or if the mine companies are reporting scarcities to artificially keep the prices high.

Bob Clark
RGClark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-27-2012, 12:35 PM   #99
Urwumpe
Certain Super User
 
Urwumpe's Avatar

Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RGClark View Post
 True. And that article seems to imply the uncertainty in the estimates is due to how the producers are reporting their stocks and expected remaining mine-able ore. So clearly it must be determined how accurate these reported amounts are, i.e., if there really is impending scarcity or if the mine companies are reporting scarcities to artificially keep the prices high.

Bob Clark
Or even the opposite, like we have the phenomena of peak oil in data, despite producers claiming exactly the opposite.

Also, you should not regard "Business as Usual" as a good base for extrapolations... markets adapt pretty fast, especially in time frames beyond one decade. And asteroid mining is just the most expensive form of getting such minerals.
Urwumpe is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2012, 08:24 AM   #100
RGClark
Mathematician
 
RGClark's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RGClark View Post
 True. And that article seems to imply the uncertainty in the estimates is due to how the producers are reporting their stocks and expected remaining mine-able ore. So clearly it must be determined how accurate these reported amounts are, i.e., if there really is impending scarcity or if the mine companies are reporting scarcities to artificially keep the prices high.

Bob Clark
But with some of these key minerals predicted to run out within two decades clearly this is something that needs to be determined definitively. Maybe we need to send in UN inspectors into their accounting departments and into their actual mines like we send in inspectors for rogue nuclear states.

In any case, here are some peer-reviewed papers that discuss this issue:

Metal stocks and sustainability.
R. B. Gordon*,
M. Bertram†,‡, and
T. E. Graedel†,
PNAS January 31, 2006 vol. 103 no. 5 1209-1214.
Quote:
Abstract
The relative proportions of metal residing in ore in the lithosphere, in use in products providing services, and in waste deposits measure our progress from exclusive use of virgin ore toward full dependence on sustained use of recycled metal. In the U.S. at present, the copper contents of these three repositories are roughly equivalent, but metal in service continues to increase. Providing today's developed-country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward.
http://www.pnas.org/content/103/5/1209

An impending platinum crisis and its implications for the future of the automobile.
Chi-Jen Yang
Energy Policy.
Volume 37, Issue 5, May 2009, Pages 1805-1808.
Quote:
Abstract
The global demand for platinum has consistently outgrown supply in the past decade. This trend likely will continue and the imbalance may possibly escalate into a crisis. Platinum plays pivotal roles in both conventional automobile emissions control and the envisioned hydrogen economy. A platinum crisis would have profound implications on energy and environment. On the one hand, inadequate platinum supply will prevent widespread commercialization of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. On the other hand, expensive platinum may enhance the competitiveness of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-powered electric cars. Policymakers should weigh the potential impacts of a platinum crisis in energy policy.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...01421509000457

And of course also if such scarcity estimates are valid, then this clearly would have a major impact on the question of the profitability of the space mining ventures.


Bob Clark
RGClark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-28-2012, 08:29 AM   #101
Urwumpe
Certain Super User
 
Urwumpe's Avatar

Default

But also on the consumer behavior
Urwumpe is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2012, 01:13 PM   #102
orb
O-F Administrator
Ninja
 
orb's Avatar

Default

SPACE.com: 2,000 Apply for Jobs Building Asteroid-Mining Robots
orb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2012, 03:13 PM   #103
RGClark
Mathematician
 
RGClark's Avatar
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RGClark View Post
 ...
And of course also if such scarcity estimates are valid, then this clearly would have a major impact on the question of the profitability of the space mining ventures.

Bob Clark
Planetary Resources co-founder Eric Anderson talks to Science Friday here:

APR. 27, 2012
Mining Quarries Millions of Miles from Earth.
http://www.sciencefriday.com/segment...rom-earth.html

Interestingly he says at present world usage growth rates, several of the important metals for high technology such as platinum will run out within decades.

This article also says the platinum group metals will run out on short time scales:

Go Beyond Gold and Look at Silver and Platinum.
by ARI CHARNEY on MARCH 12, 2012
http://www.investingdaily.com/14823/...r-and-platinum


Bob Clark

Last edited by RGClark; 05-15-2012 at 03:17 PM.
RGClark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2012, 04:50 PM   #104
Mandella
Space Cultist
 
Mandella's Avatar
Default

I might sound petty of me to note this, but after going through the (sparse) info Planetary Resources provides, it would appear that James Cameron is but a high profile mouthpiece for the group, not the guy "launching" the business. He's not even listed as an investor, but as an "adviser."

I wonder if they are paying him, or if he's just in it for the publicity?
Mandella is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2012, 05:18 AM   #105
Alfastar
да
 
Alfastar's Avatar
Default

I think more the second. Also, I think this '' asteroid mining company'' never reach a meter in space.
Alfastar is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

  Orbiter-Forum > Far Side of the Moon > Spaceflight News


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 06:45 PM.

Quick Links Need Help?


About Us | Rules & Guidelines | TOS Policy | Privacy Policy

Orbiter-Forum is hosted at Orbithangar.com
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2007 - 2012, Orbiter-Forum.com. All rights reserved.