[News] Is James Cameron launching an asteroid mining company? (Planetary Resources thread)

[Hartmann]

The last time that i saw something like this was when Howard Hughes builded USNS Glomar Explorer with the porpouse to extract Manganese modules from the sea floor .This cover story became very influential, spurring many others to examine the idea. But it was a secret plan to recover K-129 , a soviet submarine lost in April 1968.

I hope that this could be for real and not a marketing operation or something like this.

[Mandella]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hartmann

 The last time that i saw something like this was when Howard Hughes builded USNS Glomar Explorer with the porpouse to extract Manganese modules from the sea floor .This cover story became very influential, spurring many others to examine the idea. But it was a secret plan to recover K-129 , a soviet submarine lost in April 1968.

I hope that this could be for real and not a marketing operation or something like this.

Ya know, if they've detected a monolith out there on an asteroid, and this is the cover story to get Floyd and HAL out there to look at it...

Fine. We take what we can get.

[RGClark]

In regards to the reason for this endeavor, several studies have shown many of the important metals for high technology such as platinum at present global growth rates, especially in the emerging economies such as China, will be depleted within decades:

Earth's natural wealth: an audit
23 May 2007
NewScientist.com news service
David Cohen
http://www.science.org.au/nova/newsc.../027ns_005.htm

If these reports are true, and there is some uncertainty in the estimates, then such asteroid mining missions might turn out to be not amusing topics of discussion, but actual necessities.


Bob Clark

[Urwumpe]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RGClark

 In regards to the reason for this endeavor, several studies have shown many of the important metals for high technology such as platinum at present global growth rates, especially in the emerging economies such as China, will be depleted within decades:

I would be careful with extrapolations. Some century ago, people estimated that in the year 2000, we would be living below meters of horse excrement.

Also your study ignores the development of platinum recycling - a lot of the platinum is actually in old cars and can be recycled, though with a hefty price.

[T.Neo]

Quote:

Asteroid Mining No Crazier Than Deep-Sea Drilling, Advocates Say

I don't know much about deep-sea drilling, and I don't think anyone really knows that much about how to mine asteroids at this point, but that sounds like a pretty bad analogy to me. The environment they're working in is totally different, the resources they're trying to extract have a totally different nature, the hardware on the asteroid has to face an entirely different set of challenges and needs entirely different solutions.

Not to mention the fact that getting your hardware to the work site is a whole lot more expensive. Sinking stuff is so cheap that people do it even when they don't want to.

[Urwumpe]

Also, even the deepest point of the ocean is now just 2 hours away - in two hours we can't even reach the moon currently.

[Sky Captain]

Quote:

Originally Posted by T.Neo

 I don't know much about deep-sea drilling, and I don't think anyone really knows that much about how to mine asteroids at this point, but that sounds like a pretty bad analogy to me. The environment they're working in is totally different, the resources they're trying to extract have a totally different nature, the hardware on the asteroid has to face an entirely different set of challenges and needs entirely different solutions.

Not to mention the fact that getting your hardware to the work site is a whole lot more expensive. Sinking stuff is so cheap that people do it even when they don't want to.

I think they were comparing deep sea drilling to asteorid mining because both operations are extremely challenging and require massive multi billion initial investment to turn profit, the profit part being big unknown in case of asteorid mining. In both cases major mistakes and screwups also cost billions to fix.
Deep sea drilling had the advantage it developed incrementaly, people didn't immediatly go from land drillling to deap sea drilling requiring fully robotic operations. They started in shallow waters easily accesible to human divers and then gradually built up technology and experiance to access gas and oil reserves located in deep ocean.
In case of asteorid mining even first steps are multi billion endeavours and probability of multi billion failure very high because nothing like that has ever done before.

[RGClark]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Urwumpe

 I would be careful with extrapolations. Some century ago, people estimated that in the year 2000, we would be living below meters of horse excrement.

Also your study ignores the development of platinum recycling - a lot of the platinum is actually in old cars and can be recycled, though with a hefty price.

True. And that article seems to imply the uncertainty in the estimates is due to how the producers are reporting their stocks and expected remaining mine-able ore. So clearly it must be determined how accurate these reported amounts are, i.e., if there really is impending scarcity or if the mine companies are reporting scarcities to artificially keep the prices high.

Bob Clark

[Urwumpe]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RGClark

 True. And that article seems to imply the uncertainty in the estimates is due to how the producers are reporting their stocks and expected remaining mine-able ore. So clearly it must be determined how accurate these reported amounts are, i.e., if there really is impending scarcity or if the mine companies are reporting scarcities to artificially keep the prices high.

Bob Clark

Or even the opposite, like we have the phenomena of peak oil in data, despite producers claiming exactly the opposite.

Also, you should not regard "Business as Usual" as a good base for extrapolations... markets adapt pretty fast, especially in time frames beyond one decade. And asteroid mining is just the most expensive form of getting such minerals.

[RGClark]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RGClark

 True. And that article seems to imply the uncertainty in the estimates is due to how the producers are reporting their stocks and expected remaining mine-able ore. So clearly it must be determined how accurate these reported amounts are, i.e., if there really is impending scarcity or if the mine companies are reporting scarcities to artificially keep the prices high.

Bob Clark

But with some of these key minerals predicted to run out within two decades clearly this is something that needs to be determined definitively. Maybe we need to send in UN inspectors into their accounting departments and into their actual mines like we send in inspectors for rogue nuclear states.

In any case, here are some peer-reviewed papers that discuss this issue:

Metal stocks and sustainability.
R. B. Gordon*,
M. Bertram†,‡, and
T. E. Graedel†,§
PNAS January 31, 2006 vol. 103 no. 5 1209-1214.

Quote:

Abstract
The relative proportions of metal residing in ore in the lithosphere, in use in products providing services, and in waste deposits measure our progress from exclusive use of virgin ore toward full dependence on sustained use of recycled metal. In the U.S. at present, the copper contents of these three repositories are roughly equivalent, but metal in service continues to increase. Providing today's developed-country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward.

http://www.pnas.org/content/103/5/1209

An impending platinum crisis and its implications for the future of the automobile.
Chi-Jen Yang
Energy Policy.
Volume 37, Issue 5, May 2009, Pages 1805-1808.

Quote:

Abstract
The global demand for platinum has consistently outgrown supply in the past decade. This trend likely will continue and the imbalance may possibly escalate into a crisis. Platinum plays pivotal roles in both conventional automobile emissions control and the envisioned hydrogen economy. A platinum crisis would have profound implications on energy and environment. On the one hand, inadequate platinum supply will prevent widespread commercialization of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. On the other hand, expensive platinum may enhance the competitiveness of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-powered electric cars. Policymakers should weigh the potential impacts of a platinum crisis in energy policy.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...01421509000457

And of course also if such scarcity estimates are valid, then this clearly would have a major impact on the question of the profitability of the space mining ventures.


Bob Clark

[Urwumpe]

But also on the consumer behavior

[orb]

SPACE.com: 2,000 Apply for Jobs Building Asteroid-Mining Robots

[RGClark]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RGClark

 ...
And of course also if such scarcity estimates are valid, then this clearly would have a major impact on the question of the profitability of the space mining ventures.

Bob Clark

Planetary Resources co-founder Eric Anderson talks to Science Friday here:

APR. 27, 2012
Mining Quarries Millions of Miles from Earth.
http://www.sciencefriday.com/segment...rom-earth.html

Interestingly he says at present world usage growth rates, several of the important metals for high technology such as platinum will run out within decades.

This article also says the platinum group metals will run out on short time scales:

Go Beyond Gold and Look at Silver and Platinum.
by ARI CHARNEY on MARCH 12, 2012
http://www.investingdaily.com/14823/...r-and-platinum


Bob Clark

[Mandella]

I might sound petty of me to note this, but after going through the (sparse) info Planetary Resources provides, it would appear that James Cameron is but a high profile mouthpiece for the group, not the guy "launching" the business. He's not even listed as an investor, but as an "adviser."

I wonder if they are paying him, or if he's just in it for the publicity?

[Alfastar]

I think more the second. Also, I think this '' asteroid mining company'' never reach a meter in space.