Artificial object in trans-lunar orbit will impact Earth Nov 13

[Soheil_Esy]

Fri, 23 Oct 2015 12:26:18 +0200

An unusual re-entry is in store for Nov 13.

Object WT1190F discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey (a Near Earth Asteroid
survey) on Oct 3, and (as it turns out) observed earlier in 2013 and 2012, is
predicted to impact Earth near 6:19 UT on Nov 13, south of Sri Lanka near lat
5.625 N lon 81.452 E.

Google map:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/5...53499,274516m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0

This object is not an asteroid but an artificial object in a trans-Lunar,
earth-centered orbit with perigee currently at 5732 km and apogee at 607 773 km
(1.6 Lunar Distance).

It is currently not known from what launch this object is, but orbit and orbital
behaviour clearly affected by SRP point out it is artificial, i.e. it is a
rocket stage of a Lunar or interplanetary mission.

more info here:

http://neo.ssa.esa.int/

...and in this pseudo-MPEC by Bill Gray:

http://projectpluto.com/temp/mpec7.htm

[B]Orbital elements:  UDA34A3 = UW8551D = WT1190F
[/B]   Perigee 2015 Nov 13.268103 +/- 3.8e-5 TT =  6:26:04 (JD 2457339.768103)
Epoch 2015 Nov 13.2 TT; AMR 0.01058 +/- 0.000433 m2/kg       [URL="http://www.projectpluto.com/find_orb.htm"]Find_Orb[/URL]
M 358.747177 +/- 0.0007             (J2000 equatorial)
n  18.395972658 +/- 3.55e-5         Peri.  191.864216 +/- 0.0016
a306752.6589 +/- 0.394              Node    72.946410 +/- 0.0016
e   0.98131269 +/- 9.16e-7          Incl.   13.245864 +/- 0.00037
P  19.57d                  [URL="http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Sizes.html"]H[/URL] 31.3   G  0.15   U  5.9
q 5732.380971 +/- 0.288    Q 607772.9369 +/- 0.505
75 of 114 observations 2015 Sept. 19-Oct. 22; mean residual 0".357

IMPACT at 13 Nov 2015 6:19:14.15 lat +5.62515 lon E81.45221

http://projectpluto.com/temp/mpec7.htm

WT1190F comes back: ESA NEOCC watching rare reentry

22 October 2015

An object discovered on 3 October 2015, temporarily designated WT1190F by the observers, will enter the Earth's atmosphere on 13 November. It was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey (http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/css).

Hi-res GIF
WT1190F observed on 9 October 2015 with the University of Hawaii 2.2 meter telescope on Mauna Kea, Hawaii.

The object is in Earth orbit, with a period of about three weeks. Its orbit is quite well known because it was also observed twice in 2013 by the same survey team. This long observational coverage is sufficient to model its trajectory with good accuracy and obtain two interesting results.

First, the object is likely man made. The motion of this body over about two years can be modelled in detail only if the effects of solar radiation pressure are taken into account. The intensity of this solar push is proportional to the object's area-to-mass ratio, which can therefore be estimated, providing an indirect clue to its density. It turns out that this body has a mean density that is about 10% that of water. This is too low to be a natural space rock, but it is compatible with being a hollow shell, such as the spent upper stage of a rocket.

The second, and even more interesting result, is that the object will re-enter Earth's atmosphere in a few weeks, around 06:20 UT on 13 November 2015. The object is quite small, at most a couple of meters in diameter, and a significant fraction if not all of it can be expected to completely burn up in the atmosphere. Whatever is left will fall into the ocean about 100 km off the southern coast of Sri Lanka. Its mass is not sufficient to cause any threat to the area, but the show will still be spectacular, since for a few seconds the object will become quite bright in the noon sky.

During the next few weeks ESA's NEOCC will organize observational campaigns to collect as much data as possible on this object. The goal is twofold; first, the object is interesting to better understand the re-entry of satellites and debris from high orbits. Second, it provides us with an ideal opportunity to test our readiness for any possible future events involving an asteroid, since the components of this scenario, from discovery to impact, are all very similar.

http://neo.ssa.esa.int/

:hide:

 

[N_Molson]

Well, one less space debris. Good.

 

[Urwumpe]

Does somebody already know the size of it?

 

[jedidia]

Object WT1190F discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey

:lol:

 

[steph]

Does somebody already know the size of it?

Just in case it's not artificial? :lol:

 

[Urwumpe]

Just in case it's not artificial? :lol:

Rather for ever finding out which stage it is :lol:

 

[dman]

Possible Ascent Stage from Apollo 10....??

Apollo 10 was final test flight in May 1969 before moon landing in July 1969

Apollo 10 LM descended to within 47,000 ft (14 km) of lunar surface before
returning to Command module for return to earth.

The LM descent stage was left in lunar orbit eventually crashing into surface
do to gravitational differences in the moon (masscon)

The Ascent stage was fired into heliocentric orbit after docking with Command module

 

[boogabooga]

It was only observed going back to 2012, so I would guess something more recent.

GRAIL, Chang'e 2 or Chandrayaan-1 perhaps?

One could go look at the staging architecture of the various interplanetary missions over the last 5 years or so as well. Anything that made its final boost using a small solid or under its own propulsion is a candidate for stranding an upper stage in HEEO.

 

[MaverickSawyer]

Chandrayaan-1 would be a very likely candidate, then. They used an onboard kick motor over the course of a month to leave Earth orbit, if memory serves...

 

[asbjos]

But

It turns out that this body has a mean density that is about 10% that of water

I don't think a spaceprobe has a mean density that low, so I think it is an empty rocket stage.

 

[boogabooga]

I mean the debris from those missions, not the probes themselves.

 

[Kyle]

Should be easy enough to identify what this is (it's obviously a spent upper stage) based on any spectrographic evidence they'll be able to get. That's how J002E3 was identified to be a spent S-IVB stage, specifically the one from Apollo 12.

 

[ISProgram]

Possible that Object WTF is in fact the ascent stage of Apollo 10's LM Snoopy.

A bit doubtful IMHO.

EDIT: Corrected the link.

 

[kerlix]

Is there any chance of figuring out what it is once it gets closer? Or will it remain unknown?

 

[Urwumpe]

Is there any chance of figuring out what it is once it gets closer? Or will it remain unknown?

There are some chances, especially if the reentry is filmed or debris is found.

But not too many, specific differences of the upper stages are hard to find.

We can only be sure that it was not the upper stage of the LCROSS mission.

 

[n122vu]

"Enough of this anomaly . What is this thing?"

 

[Andy44]

"Enough of this anomaly . What is this thing?"

Happy? :hello:

 

[dman]

Possible that Object WTF is in fact the ascent stage of Apollo 10's LM Snoopy.

A bit doubtful IMHO.

EDIT: Corrected the link.

Object WT1190F, discovered on Oct 3rd by the Catalina Sky Survey and due to impact the earth on Nov 13th is probably the Apollo 10 lunar ascent stage "Snoopy".

 

[Col_Klonk]

It's a millipede walking across the lens..:thumbup:

 

[Frilock]

So....did we ever figure out what it was?