News COVID-19 pandemic

What will happen after the Corona epidemic?

  • The population of Asia will be reduced, accelerating the sustainable development.

    Votes: 14 30.4%
  • The major civilizations will collapse.

    Votes: 12 26.1%
  • The human race will end.

    Votes: 20 43.5%

  • Total voters
    46
  • Poll closed .
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Urwumpe

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People on the other side would state, well the figures were worse at the beginning, and turned out not to be that bad. Isn't the yearly fatalities from flu still over 500,000.


If the flu would give you yearly fatalities of 500,000, you should really consider getting a working health care system... Thats a IFR of 0.15%, about five times higher as in the rest of the world (0.04%). When a really bad influenza virus is going around, we get 70,000 deaths in EU, despite having about 100,000 citizens more than the USA.



Also, the CDC says something else about the seasonal flu:



https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

BTW, the (rather high) global estimate for the IFR of COVID-19 is 1.04%. Which includes countries with really poor health care system. Yes, if your health care system would be that bad, this means 1% of the US population will die in the pandemic. Thats almost 3.5 million people.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098780v1
 
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Quick_Nick

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Arizona cases are exploding.
ICU beds filling, ventilator use and intubations per day rising to new highs.

Statewide lockdown measures ended May 15 without any phasing.
We've been sitting at #48 in testing.

This is looking bad even without the coming effect of protests and gatherings.

For a brief time ahead of the reopening, researchers at the two major universities in the state were ordered to pause their work on COVID-19 modeling and had access cut off to some data.
 

Artlav

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Makes me worry what's up next here in Moscow.
We aren't anywhere near the end of it, but most of the restrictions have been lifted yesterday against doctor recommendations. Numbers have been jumping down suspiciously too.
Looks like the plan is to make a show of normality at all costs before the voting on July 1st.
 

Urwumpe

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Numbers are slightly climbing up here, was spiking already at R=1.1 on Tuesday, but the seven-day fit is still at R=0.86

We have a small outbreak in a hospital in Dortmund, but otherwise there is little new happening so far.

A contact tracing app should be available this week, German IT experts already made a review of its open-source code for mobile client and server and had been quite favorable of it, especially that it was implemented by SAP and T-Systems in such a short time while also conforming to all standards and best practices. They did not see any privacy violations in the current implementation, but they expect little effect if only few people are using the app.

https://github.com/corona-warn-app

Some BBC about the differences between German app and UK App:

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52650576
 
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tl8

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Numbers are slightly climbing up here, was spiking already at R=1.1 on Tuesday, but the seven-day fit is still at R=0.86

We have a small outbreak in a hospital in Dortmund, but otherwise there is little new happening so far.

A contact tracing app should be available this week, German IT experts already made a review of its open-source code for mobile client and server and had been quite favorable of it, especially that it was implemented by SAP and T-Systems in such a short time while also conforming to all standards and best practices. They did not see any privacy violations in the current implementation, but they expect little effect if only few people are using the app.

https://github.com/corona-warn-app

Some BBC about the differences between German app and UK App:

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52650576


We have around 5 million downloads out of 25 million people. So far the app has not picked up any contacts that the manual contact tracing didn't find.


That said, we have the first case that went to the protests so that is an interesting line of data.
 

Urwumpe

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The German R for the past seven days is now up to 1.04. Hardly surprising that it exceeds one, but still better than expected. It climbs slower than feared.
 

romanasul

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I understand that the European Union are planning to allow international arrivals from July 1?
 

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Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital (of Paris) conducted research according to whom people with smoking patches are less likely to get sick COVID-19

picture.php
 

C3PO

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Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital (of Paris) conducted research according to whom people with smoking patches are less likely to get sick COVID-19

Most COVID-19 fatalities are patients with compromised respiratory system. How many of them would be smokers?

Statistics is a tool, NOT a solution! :facepalm:
 

Notebook

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Some good news:

A cheap and widely available drug can help save the lives of patients seriously ill with coronavirus.
The low-dose steroid treatment dexamethasone is a major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus, UK experts say.
The drug is part of the world's biggest trial testing existing treatments to see if they also work for coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281
 

Urwumpe

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The official number of downloads of the Corona Warn App, according to the government after 24 hours: 6,453,606 installations.

1/10 of Whatsapp in Germany, and about 1/10 what would be considered a optimal spread.

A pretty good start.
 

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...there are still some relevant numbers of Android devices that do not fulfill the minimal specification (Version 6), which might unfortunately result in "lower than possible" numbers[1]:
9.0 (Pie)|37.1% 8.0-8.1 (Oreo)|21.9% 7.0-7.1 (Nougat)|13.1% 6.0 (Marshmallow)|10.7% 5.0-5.1 (Lollipop)|8.5% 4.4 (KitKat)|3.7% 10 (Android 10)|3.4% 4.1-4.3 (Jelly Bean)|1.3% 2.3 (Gingerbread)|0.2% 4.0 (Ice Cream Sandwich)|0.2% 3.0-3.2 (Honeycomb)|0.0%

13.9% (of Android users) are currently unsupported.
For Apple I guess the numbers are somewhat equal.

However "down-porting" the App to be usable without specific OS-Support (BTLE in background specifically) is hard.

Side-Note: These numbers are rough, as having Android 6 alone is not enough - Android 6 with BTLE support is required...

[1] Source: Connect
 
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Urwumpe

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Generally you can say: Any smartphone older than 2015 is too old for the protocol.
 

jedidia

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I have never owned a single cellphone that would have been younger than five years by the time I acquired it... :shifty:
 

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Not such a major breakthrough. Dexamethasone and other steroids are commonly used for control of inflammatory conditions and pneumonias. It's far from a cure, but some people respond well to it and it enables some to recover that would otherwise succumb to pneumonia.

It's a "major breakthrough" because someone in the media found out that it was a treatment, and needed to generate the clicks. It's not a new game-changer, but a weapon in the existing arsenal.
 

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I never said it was any of that, just good news.
 
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