News Kolavia Flight 7K9268 (Airbus A321-231) crashes on Sinai peninsula

[Urwumpe]

Right now, there is little information about the aircraft and the last events of the aircraft around, what is known is, that it was a charter flight with 217 passengers and seven crew members, mostly Russians, which had been leaving Sharm el-Sheikh just 23 minutes before the crash. The plane was heading to St. Petersburg. Accord to RT, the last call was the captain of the aircraft requested a new course for an emergency landing in Cairo.

The aircraft was an Airbus A320-231, was 18 years old and registered as EI-ETJ. It uses two IAE Model V2533-A5 engines.

https://www.rt.com/news/320217-russian-plane-off-radars/

http://www.flightradar24.com/data/airplanes/ei-etj/#7d986d3

The homepage of the airline is down, can't say if it is because of the crash or just how things should have been on the weekend.

http://www.kolavia.ru

 

[Notebook]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34687139

 

[IronRain]

Unconfirmed, but still...

BREAKING Officers at the plane crash site say voices of trapped passengers could be heard http://ift.tt/1PboZKx - @NewsHazbail

 

[Urwumpe]

Unconfirmed, but still...

I have some doubts there, but hey, miracles happen.

---------- Post added at 08:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:12 AM ----------

As expected - all persons onboard are dead, the plane has broken into two parts on crash.

The IS claims to have shot down the plane, but that is highly doubtful. Also the plane was in 9000 meters altitude when the problems started, far above weapons that any terrorist or IS supporter could have in Egypt...aside of the fact that IS supporters in Egypt are not that popular.

---------- Post added 11-01-15 at 05:21 PM ---------- Previous post was 10-31-15 at 08:03 PM ----------

The aircraft has broken up already in the air, the debris is in multiple locations and a corpse of a passenger had been found 8 km away from the main debris field.

 

[fred18]

The aircraft has broken up already in the air, the debris is in multiple locations and a corpse of a passenger had been found 8 km away from the main debris field.

This suggests a mid air explosion, doesn'it? but I read that the pilot asked for emergency landing, while a mid air explosion wouldn't have given him anytime even to think about it.

 

[Urwumpe]

This suggests a mid air explosion, doesn'it? but I read that the pilot asked for emergency landing, while a mid air explosion wouldn't have given him anytime even to think about it.

Well, it is hard to say what caused it, because there are multiple possibilities. For example, it was noted in the history of the aircraft, that it suffered a tail-strike more than a decade ago and required repairs on the aft bulkhead.

Also the maintenance state of the aircraft was reported to be very poor.

That the pilot called an emergency has been denied by the Egyptian officials today, there had been no calls of the crew.

 

[fred18]

Well, it is hard to say what caused it, because there are multiple possibilities. For example, it was noted in the history of the aircraft, that it suffered a tail-strike more than a decade ago and required repairs on the aft bulkhead.

Also the maintenance state of the aircraft was reported to be very poor.

That the pilot called an emergency has been denied by the Egyptian officials today, there had been no calls of the crew.

Oh didn't know that the emergency was denied. Therefore also an explosive decompression caused by a broken repaired bulkhead can be an option.

 

[Urwumpe]

Oh didn't know that the emergency was denied. Therefore also an explosive decompression caused by a broken repaired bulkhead can be an option.

Yes. But also a bomb on-board. Turbine failure. Even simple structural failure on some absolutely innocent part would be possible.

We can only exclude some scenarios, because the plane would be flight-worthy for a much longer time then.

---------- Post added 11-02-15 at 01:05 PM ---------- Previous post was 11-01-15 at 05:49 PM ----------

And the usual game has started. The airline claims that the aircraft was perfectly fine and the pilot could not have been causing the crash, and that only mechanic influence from outside could have caused the crash.

Preliminary information from the accident board contradicts this, the outside influences have been ruled out.

The airline also claims that something from outside has prevented communication of the crew with the ground, the accident board does not agree to this.

What also has been confirmed by both sides: The engines of the aircraft had been overhauled only one week ago in Moscow.

Also, it seems like the aft section of the aircraft separated first during the break-up and was on fire, since there is fire damage reported, also it was the most southern part of the debris.

 

[jedidia]

The IS claims to have shot down the plane, but that is highly doubtful. Also the plane was in 9000 meters altitude when the problems started, far above weapons that any terrorist or IS supporter could have in Egypt...aside of the fact that IS supporters in Egypt are not that popular.

The prefered islamistic method of shooting down planes usually consists of weapons ON the plane, not below it, so I wouldn't rule it out completely...

 

[Urwumpe]

The prefered islamistic method of shooting down planes usually consists of weapons ON the plane, not below it, so I wouldn't rule it out completely...

Well, the Islamist rumor actually says that the IS-allied terrorist groups in Egypt have conquered a SA-6 Gainful/2K12 Kub.

But I have strong doubts there, especially since you don't use such a system by randomly punching buttons.

---------- Post added at 03:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:35 PM ----------

The final seconds of tracking data is even more confusing:

The ground speed decreased in about 30 seconds from 400 knots to 60 knots!

 

[ISProgram]

Seems like it stalled...?

 

[Urwumpe]

Seems like it stalled...?

Or the FBW went to hell. Or something in the pitch channel failed.

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

Well, the Islamist rumor actually says that the IS-allied terrorist groups in Egypt have conquered a SA-6 Gainful/2K12 Kub.

But I have strong doubts there, especially since you don't use such a system by randomly punching buttons.

---------- Post added at 03:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:35 PM ----------

The final seconds of tracking data is even more confusing:

The ground speed decreased in about 30 seconds from 400 knots to 60 knots!

Would an aft bulkhead explosive decompression a la JAL123 and CAL611 caused such a large phugoid action? :hmm:

 

[fred18]

Could it be the explosive decompression of the aft bulkhead that cut off the pitch controls? the plane could have pitched almost vertically very fast, and the drag force could have cut it in 2

 

[Urwumpe]

Would an aft bulkhead explosive decompression a la JAL123 and CAL611 caused such a large phugoid action? :hmm:

Not like that - the airspeed does not oscillate, which would cause a phugoid.

We need to look for something that takes out two engines and electricity in 30 seconds. Like that, a bomb is possible, but unlikely (it would have been a really surgical strike). And a SAM can be ruled out.

 

[jarmonik]

If the data is accurate there seems to be a sharp spike in altitude right below the orange line. Looks like the plane rotated around pitch axis very fast. That can't happen like that as long as the plane has wings and tail. If the graph is coming from a radar then, of course, some samples could come from a different sections if the plane broke apart.

 

[SolarLiner]

If the data is accurate there seems to be a sharp spike in altitude right below the orange line. Looks like the plane rotated around pitch axis very fast. That can't happen like that as long as the plane has wings and tail. If the graph is coming from a radar then, of course, some samples could come from a different sections if the plane broke apart.

What bothers me in this graph is that the Vertical Speed doesn't seem to correlate with the altitude graph ... or I'm missing something?

 

[TachyonDriver]

Approximately at the time the rate of Descent increases, the ground speed DECREASES... if the plane went into a dive, then the crew would have to throttle back and use spoilers, flaps etc. to at least not have the speed increase, but to have the speed decay so much IN ADDITION to the rapid descent seems a little strange ... mind you, at cruise speed, any amount of flap deployment will rip them off surely??

Like any air crash we discuss and debate the possible causes until the truth is found.

EDIT - hang on - just a thought the graph is showing GROUND SPEED..

Take it to an extreme - a powerful fighter jet say even the good old English Electric Lightning..It takes off, full afterburner...ground speed increases... once the plane is up to speed the pilot pulls back on the stick and goes into a vertical climb.... result: speed OVER THE GROUND is almost ZERO.. but he's on his way to 30000 feet at several hundred knots AIRSPEED.

Could this be a reason for some of the anomalies??

 

[SolarLiner]

Could this be a reason for some of the anomalies??

Assuming telemetry is accurate enough; the altitude only drops by ~4000 ft, which would make this theory impossible.

 

[jarmonik]

What bothers me in this graph is that the Vertical Speed doesn't seem to correlate with the altitude graph ... or I'm missing something?

I am confused by that as well, during the last 20s graphs do not correlate. Also, the graph shows a climb of 7'000 ft/s followed by descent of same magnitude. Radar getting echoes from debris ? Something going on that's creating a fake doppler effect ?