News COVID-19 pandemic

[Linguofreak]

Yes I think its unreasonable to hope a vaccine to be available before 1 or 2 years. And yes that's very long.

In France, the restaurant industry is slowly dying. In other places too, but in France well... its a symbol. Of course the state is helping a lot but the future remains very dark : social distancing is IMHO incompatible with the mere concept of the "small french restaurant" which is what attract people. Also those restaurants typically have one small room, make little margin and they simply won't be profitable with an half-empty room (and more likely three-quarters empty). Also summer is obviously the time of the year where they make profit, and it is now more and more obvious that tourism will be extremely reduced. International tourism will be almost non-existent, and even within the country there will be restrictions. Add to that that most people won't be in a mood to go out and spend money. So yes it really looks grim. Will the state be able to support the industry for 1 or 2 years ? If yes, the cost will be enormous, if not the cost will also be very high as a significant part of the economy will just stop to exist and unemployment will skyrocket. :shrug:

We may well not have a vaccine or cure within a year or two, but I'm very skeptical that social distancing measures will remain in place for that long. I figure around July or August, if full lockdown measures are still in place, we'll be on the verge of the economy breaking in ways that have a significant cost in lives, and at that point either society will back down and take the excess disease casualties, or things actually will break and at that point governments will be dealing with so many crises that they will no longer be able to enforce quarantine.

But if asymptomatic rates are really as high as some studies are indicating, then we'll probably hit the herd immunity point well before then, and lockdowns will likely have been relaxed.

 

[N_Molson]

I'm also very skeptical about social distancing, especially in countries like France, Spain, Italy (latin culture) where individual discipline isn't a cultural value. It clearly works in Asia where the individual sacrifices himself for the society, and maybe it can work in Scandinavia and Germany too. What is certain is that the average guy from Marseille won't suddenly behave like the average guy in Beijing.

 

[APDAF]

Given that the world might be on the verge of a depression that could be worse than 1929 and some nations might be banning exports of food I could see something like a second arab spring happening.

 

[richfororbit]

CNN had an article with which the world food programme gave a high figure of more than one hundred million going hungry in the world, obviously the most poorest countries as a result of the virus keeping societies locked down and so on.

 

[Notebook]

https://www.reactionengines.co.uk/n...mponents-frontline-nhs-and-healthcare-workers

Good for RE.

Not much other news happening. A new short glossy promo, but nothing else.

 

[Urwumpe]

26 Million people lost their job and applied for unemployment insurance in the USA since the beginning of April. For comparison, the total workforce in the USA was at a record 164 million people in February.

 

[Notebook]

ummary
WHO reveals 'deeply concerning' estimate that half of European Covid-19 deaths occurred in care homes

US unemployment claims hit 26.4 million - more than 15% of the workforce

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been addressing lawmakers in Berlin
Mrs Merkel says Germany is ready to make "significantly higher" contributions to the EU budget

It comes as EU leaders are expected to sign off on a rescue package for countries hardest-hit by the crisis

China reports no new Covid-19 deaths for the eighth day in a row

Big Night In - a star-studded BBC fundraising telethon - takes place from 19:00 BST in the UK on Thursday

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52391597

 

[4throck]

the average guy from Marseille won't suddenly behave like the average guy in Beijing.

[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NiP_5Bwc-o"]McDonald's Lovers Queue For THREE HOURS! After Local Branch Reopens In France During COVID_19 - YouTube[/ame]

:rofl:

(don't know if its true or not, perhaps our french friends can confirm ?)

 

[mahdavi3d]

 

[jgrillo2002]

this is truly the stuff from nightmares. we have dived down to insanity because of this damn bug. Hope all of you are well.

 

[Urwumpe]

Top 5 Most PROMISING drugs for Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Lung Doctor's Insight - YouTube

How old is this video? Most of those had been found to have little effect.

 

[N_Molson]

(don't know if its true or not, perhaps our french friends can confirm ?)

Confirmed, but note that those cars are waiting for the Mc Drive, the room was closed. I'm certainly not surprised. :facepalm: Well, as long as they stay inside the cars, I'd say the risk is limited... Yeah, people are fed up already and its been only 6 or 7 weeks...

 

[girrl]

99.98 survival if you haven't noticed

99.98% of the full population will survive.
Death from corona will be just 0.02% of the population (max).

I am sorry for you in that case. But 98% of all humans will survive it. :dry:


Or in other words: Corona is as deadly as manned spaceflight.






Possible, but China does a lot to contain it again all odds. So far its not too bad, compared to SARS.




Here is a very good and up-to-date german FAQs by the German Robert-Koch-Institut, the German federal agency for disease control:


https://www.rki.de/SharedDocs/FAQ/NCOV2019/FAQ_Liste.html

 

[dbeachy1]

99.98 will survive.
Death from corona will be just 0.02% of the population (max).

Urwumpe was saying that 98% of people who catch Coronavirus will survive it -- he was replying to this (highlight added):

I heard that both India and China are affected by the Corona disease. Like the 4th stage of cancer, this cannot be cured! OMG, I will die in this disease once I affected!!

 

[Urwumpe]

99.98 will survive.
Death from corona will be just 0.02% of the population (max).

Don't be too optimistic there. We have no idea how many people it really can kill. But 0.02% maximum of the population is far too low, if you just look at the numbers of Sweden for example, which mostly ignored the virus until it was too late. The excess mortality of Sweden is now a multiple of what it is in an average year and we have no sign yet, that the peak has been reached.

https://www.euromomo.eu/



AND: 0.02% of the population of Germany means 16640 deaths due to COVID-19. Bad news, we are already at 5000 confirmed deaths - many die without even being tested. Unless we are very lucky with our testing, the true number of deaths likely already exceed the 16000. And even if we are lucky, the epidemic is not over yet. We will get about twice the current number alone in the first wave.

 

[Linguofreak]

Or in other words: Corona is as deadly as manned spaceflight.

Yeah, but the view isn't anywhere near as lovely, nor do you get the experience of freefall.

 

[Urwumpe]

Yeah, but the view isn't anywhere near as lovely, nor do you get the experience of freefall.

Yeah, also surviving it does not mean its fun to have it, while surviving a spaceflight is a great experience...

 

[girrl]

Its not how many catches it, that is important. What percentage of the entire population is going to die, that is what is important.

So its 0.02% of all humans, max.

Don't be too optimistic there. We have no idea how many people it really can kill. But 0.02% maximum of the population is far too low, if you just look at the numbers of Sweden for example, which mostly ignored the virus until it was too late. The excess mortality of Sweden is now a multiple of what it is in an average year and we have no sign yet, that the peak has been reached.

https://www.euromomo.eu/



AND: 0.02% of the population of Germany means 16640 deaths due to COVID-19. Bad news, we are already at 5000 confirmed deaths - many die without even being tested. Unless we are very lucky with our testing, the true number of deaths likely already exceed the 16000. And even if we are lucky, the epidemic is not over yet. We will get about twice the current number alone in the first wave.

 

[mahdavi3d]

How old is this video? Most of those had been found to have little effect.

Video is dated Apr 23, 2020 !
Am I wrong or the only one that announced as a failure more recent than yesterday is remdesivir ? (BBC : Hopes dashed as coronavirus drug remdesivir 'fails first trial)

 

[Urwumpe]

So its 0.02% of all humans, max.

How did you calculate this number?



And why are you insisting on it, even if the observed number for many countries suggests that the lethality is much higher?


Italy for example, has a population of 60 million and 25549 confirmed COVID-19 deaths (Among the small subset of the population that was actually tested).



That means: Already with just the tested deaths, the number exceeds 0.04% of the whole population of italy. And that despite physicians in Italy trying their best to save as many patients as possible against all odds.

---------- Post added at 11:56 ---------- Previous post was at 11:53 ----------

Video is dated Apr 23, 2020 !
Am I wrong or the only one that announced as a failure more recent than yesterday is remdesivir ? (BBC : Hopes dashed as coronavirus drug remdesivir 'fails first trial)

If I remember correctly, all those medicaments had been suggested already in April, and did show little effect to cure the disease at that point, but the hope was there that they could at least save some patients or be used if better treatments are not available anymore.



The number of different symptoms that COVID-19 causes means that a large number of medications are needed just to manage the symptoms - especially the multiple organ failures. But that does not mean that it cures COVID-19. It just manages to keep you alive until your own immune system can help.