Launch News (FAILURE) Telkom-3 and Express MD-2, Proton-M/Breeze-M, August 6/7, 2012

[N_Molson]

So the Proton could be grounded for months ? :shifty:

 

[SiberianTiger]

So the Proton could be grounded for months ? :shifty:

I'd say ground it for the rest of the year and order enough Block-DM's to satisfy obligations made to the customers, while paying a delay compensation to them. Then make a reworked version of Briz and recertify it for flight on several launches.

This way we'd have lost less than we will.

Remember my word.

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

Cause of the failure

http://www.ilslaunch.com/newsroom/news-releases/failure-review-oversight-board-frob-concludes-investigation

The Failure Review Oversight Board (FROB) concluded the review of the Russian State Commission report on September 11 concerning the root cause of the Russian Federal Telkom-3/Express MD-2 mission failure which occurred on August 7. The FROB agreed with the Russian State Commission that the root cause of the failure was due to a component of the pressurization system that was not manufactured to specifications. This caused a shutdown of the Breeze M Main engine by the Breeze M flight control system 7 seconds into the planned 18 minute and 5 second 3rd burn.

The corrective action plan for all Breeze M upper stages that was established by the Russian State Commission and Khrunichev State Research and Space Production Center (KhSC) was also approved by the FROB. This includes stringent quality oversight of all rework procedures, testing, support equipment, and personnel, both at the KhSC production facilities and in Baikonur. In addition, ILS and KhSC will develop specific initiatives to enhance the unified Quality Management System (QMS) that is installed and operating at all KhSC production facilities.

http://www.spacenews.com/launch/proton-set-return-flight-oct-carrying-intelsat-is-23.html

.......

Briefing reporters here during the World Satellite Business Week conference organized by Euroconsult, McKenna said a Russian government commission looking into the Aug. 6 failure, which left Russian and Indonesian telecommunications satellites in useless orbits, has clearly identified the failure’s cause and remedial action.

The Breeze-M upper stage failed to deliver sufficient thrust on the third of its planned ignitions because of a small metallic orifice inside a fuel line that was not manufactured according to specifications, McKenna said.

The component was built by Polyot of Omsk, Russia, in a manufacturing plant owned by Khrunichev Space Center of Moscow, which is Proton’s prime contractor and for the last several years has assembled most Proton subcontractors under its management.

McKenna said the defective pressurization-line component was built by Khrunichev until 2011, when it was moved to Polyot in 2011 as part of a general reorganization of Proton assembly.

The Polyot-built component has flown on several flights without failing, a fact that McKenna said helps explain why the defect, which he said was due to a misunderstanding at Polyot of how the part should be built, escaped Polyot and Krunichev review tests.

Given that the defect only occurred at certain pressure thresholds, McKenna said, it was not picked up as the component was tested with Khrunichev oversight.

.........

 

[tl8]

A (very basic) quality control issue :blink:

Even a graduate engineer knows about that...

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

A (very basic) quality control issue :blink:

Even a graduate engineer knows about that...

Well, if the Russians can load too much LOX onto a rocket, such moments of "d'oh!" are not out of the question...... :uhh:

(Then again, it's not only limited to the Russians: see the Shuttle/Delta/Atlas/Titan failures of 1986-87, the Delta/Titan failures of 1997-99, and the failure of the Mars Climate Orbiter.....)

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

Alert: Briz-M exploded in orbit!

Remember the dormant Briz-M from this launch that Roscosmos chief Popovkin once said "It won't explode!" (can't find the link right now)?

Well it did a week ago. :facepalm:

You might let people know who are interested in such things that for the

last 3 days I've been investigating a major satellite break-up with well-known

astronomer Rob McNaught. The event occurred on 16 October when Rob,

as part of his regular near-earth asteroid survey work, serendipitously

observed dozens of fragments passing through his very narrow field of

view telescope (Siding Spring Observatory, New South Wales, Australia).

Based on his astrometry, I positively identified the culprit as the

Breeze-M R/B upper stage that was supposed to launch Telkom 3 and

Express MD2 into GEO back in August (USSPACECOM #38746). Rob

observed over 70 individual fragments moving in mostly parallel

orbits that matched the location (to within 0.5 degrees cross-track),

direction and velocity that #38746 ~should~ have had, except that most

of the fragments showed up about 5 minutes early. A subsequent

targeted search for #38746 one day later by Rob (cued by me) turned

up nothing, adding confidence to the identification.



Given that this Breeze-M rocket body was nearly full of fuel (it shut down

after only a 7-second burn, stranding the two satellites in useless orbits),

it is not that surprising that it would eventually explode. I'm still calculating

when the break-up had to have occurred, but my suspicion is that Rob

McNaught imaged the aftermath only a few hours after explosion. My

guess is that it broke up near perigee due to the elevated aerodynamic

stresses at that point in the orbit. Perigee occurs on a descending node

in the northern hemisphere around 30 degrees latitude. Rob's observation

was close to 180 degrees away in mean anomaly (i.e. close to apogee on

the ascending node).



Surprisingly, USSPACECOM has not reported this breakup, nor has it

cataloged any new fragments as a result of the breakup. Certainly

McNaught has excellent data from which he and I will be able to

construct dozens of TLEs for the brighter fragments, many of which

are flashing at very high rates.

http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2012/0190.html

 

[N_Molson]

Do you know the PeA of the cloud of debris ? (meaning, is there any hope they will re-enter before thousand years ?)

 

[Urwumpe]

Do you know the PeA of the cloud of debris ? (meaning, is there any hope they will re-enter before thousand years ?)

There is no single PeA. Every fragment has its own orbit, with some being below the initial orbit, others had been boosted into higher orbits by the fragmentation. The resulting plot of the distribution in orbit period is called Gabbard diagram.

It is not sure if the stage fragmented by itself or if it was hit by other space debris.

But: A few tons of hypergolic rocket fuel getting released would even in space have caused quite some fireworks. Doubtful that this was not observed. I would say the stage was inert, but only the launch provider really knows that. If the rocket stage was unable to shutdown properly, it was not inert.

 

[MattBaker]

orb linked this article earlier (page 2).

Russia’s Briz-M booster, which failed to put two satellites into their target orbit, is likely to keep flying in space for up to five months before sinking into the thicker layers of the atmosphere, a rocket industry source told RIA Novosti on Wednesday.

So in August it was expected that the reentry is around January, now it depends on the change of the orbit the explosion did. Additionally the atmospheric drag of small parts would be lower, so it takes longer for them to fall down.
My concern is that the orbit passes all LEO-objects, ISS included, we already have the fun with the debris of other destroyed satellites...

 

[SiberianTiger]

Additionally the atmospheric drag of small parts would be lower, so it takes longer for them to fall down.
My concern is that the orbit passes all LEO-objects, ISS included, we already have the fun with the debris of other destroyed satellites...

I think the drag-to-mass ratio for debris is generally much bigger than for a whole thing... The problem is that the part of debris were likely ejected to orbits with higher perigees and therefore a longer lifetime than originally.

 

[Urwumpe]

Additionally the atmospheric drag of small parts would be lower

Wrong. At the same density, smaller parts would have more acceleration due to drag (if you double the size, the mass increases by 8, but the surface by 4). Fragments of a tank just rarely have the same mass per volume as an intact tank. But even then, you have to differ, which part you are observing. Predicting the decay of a fragmented space debris is terribly complicated and only extrapolation of the available observations.

The bad thing is simply: It will cross the ISS orbit and it will until then already have spread out by a few degrees. A long distance shot gun shot.

I have no information about the actual number of fragments in each size class.

---------- Post added at 05:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:52 PM ----------

I find this pretty interesting in the context:

http://www.zarya.info/Gallimaufry/120707ProtonFailure.php#plot

The stage was definitly inert, the propellant and pressure dump happened as can be seen in the plot of the decay rates. (Not sure how much DV this maneuver produced, would need to know more about the process there, it is a bit low for the expected amount of fuel.)

I will try getting better information this week, maybe I can find out if somebody more professional can confirm the fragmentation event.

 

[gwiz]

I will try getting better information this week, maybe I can find out if somebody more professional can confirm the fragmentation event.

It's official. The following message is on the USSTRATCOM Space-track website:

JFCC SPACE is currently working to characterize
the 16 October 2012 break up of a rocket body (Catalog # 38746)
and assess the impact of the debris field to objects on orbit. We will
continue to provide notification of potential conjunctions and update
the Satellite Catalog via established processes.

 

[Urwumpe]

It's official. The following message is on the USSTRATCOM Space-track website:

JFCC SPACE is currently working to characterize
the 16 October 2012 break up of a rocket body (Catalog # 38746)
and assess the impact of the debris field to objects on orbit. We will
continue to provide notification of potential conjunctions and update
the Satellite Catalog via established processes.

Yeah, I try to get also some confirmation from ESAs ESOC, they are usually pretty active there.

 

[orb]

Spaceflght Now: Rocket explosion raises worries over space debris

SPACE.com: Shattered Russian Rocket Spawns Space Junk Cloud

Universe Today: Exploded Rocket Fragments Could Endanger ISS and Future Missions