Question Just a simple question...

[dsb]

hi everybody!

i often remember the amazing manned missions in the past and these days there is nothing like this (except iss-transfers).
yes, iss is a fulltime manned mission and absolutely great but what i mean is something big like Space Shuttle and alle the incredible projects before.

so that took me to the point to shout out a question online:

HERE IT IS

do you think like me or am i alone with all these memories and wishes for the future?

bye and greetings!

 

[ADSWNJ]

We are between Shuttle and the new manned space era, so things feel a bit flat. But we are also in the era of commercial spaceflight, with amazing things happening as SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Orbital ATK and friends bring innovation to the market. Meanwhile we have ion thruster spaceflights, solar monitoring flights, landers still roaming around Mars, Jupiter 'Juno' flybys, Saturn 'Cassini', satellite signals from outside the solar system, Bigelow space modules, ... I could go on.

We live in amazing times, and it's only just getting started! Deep space telescope next year, two manned flight vehicles, Falcon Heavy, water on the Martian equator, interest in a lunar base again, and more countries getting involved in space flight. May they continue to go in peace for all mankind...

 

[Urwumpe]

Also, the shuttle is generally a too good idea to not come back. It just was a few years early and pulled out of prototype status too soon. A bit more patience would have been needed.

Even with modern VTOL rockets becoming a reality, I doubt that they can really match a gliding horizontal landing in terms of crew comfort and safety.

There will be a next shuttle. And it will be better than anything else seen before.

 

[Wolf]

Also, the shuttle is generally a too good idea to not come back. It just was a few years early and pulled out of prototype status too soon. A bit more patience would have been needed.

Even with modern VTOL rockets becoming a reality, I doubt that they can really match a gliding horizontal landing in terms of crew comfort and safety.

There will be a next shuttle. And it will be better than anything else seen before.

That would be great! Have you got some insider at NASA... or you mean SSU?

 

[Urwumpe]

That would be great! Have you got some insider at NASA... or you mean SSU?

Elon Musk told me that during a conference at the Google moon base.

 

[Wolf]

Elon Musk told me that during a conference at the Google moon base.

:thumbup:

 

[Thorsten]

There will be a next shuttle. And it will be better than anything else seen before.

Actually, judging by the rate problems on the planet start piling up and politicians start pushing for the entirely wrong solutions, we're lucky if there will still be a civilization on the planet 20 years from now.

Considering that I fervently hope these days that the officer who carries the nuclear code for the US president has the good judgement to say no and refuse the order if push comes to shove....

 

[Urwumpe]

Actually, judging by the rate problems on the planet start piling up and politicians start pushing for the entirely wrong solutions, we're lucky if there will still be a civilization on the planet 20 years from now.

I won't go into discussing politics on O-F (I'm on cold turkey there, and its better that way) and I don't think we'll ever leave this planet by arguing whose idiot trumps the others idiot.

Just so much: We have survived for millions of years by the plain fact, that among all the loud and annoying idiots, many good silent people did the best they can.

I doubt I can show my children a really better world in 20 years... but hey, maybe its at least a minor improvement.

 

[Thorsten]

We have survived for millions of years by the plain fact, that among all the loud and annoying idiots, many good silent people did the best they can.

We weren't billions of humans and growing and for the vast majority of that time we didn't have nukes or even gunpowder. The tools to wreck the planet we only acquired the last 100 years or so. And we've made fairly good use of them so far.

Otherwise - I actually didn't want to discuss concrete politics or who's the greater idiot - but I do think these days it's not a given there'll be a civilization capable of spaceflight in 20 years from now and that is a message worth bringing across.

Or, in other words - the fact that the Shuttle no longer flies is not a relevant problem for the vast majority of humans.

Edit: Anyway, if the post above is too much politics or too controversial, I'm okay to see it deleted.

 

[PhantomCruiser]

I think a winged orbiter is in the somewhat near-future. If the DreamChaser gets funded (privately or otherwise), it'll be a welcome addition to the inventory of spacecraft we have.

 

[Urwumpe]

But I do think these days it's not a given there'll be a civilization capable of spaceflight in 20 years from now and that is a message worth bringing across.

Why? Lets pick the news of August 1997: Is there any objective reason to assume it was better twenty years ago? We had even a tiny bit more nukes back then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events/August_1997

Algerian Civil War? Are you even remembering today that it happened? 20 years ago, Steve Jobs returned to Apple. Who did believe then that Apple would be the most valuable IT company today?

What about spaceflight in 1997? In 1997, the Ariane 5 was still a massive failure without a successful launch. Today we discuss the Ariane 6 during a much longer Ariane 5 career as ever expected. Its still the benchmark.

I can only make one reliable prediction: In 20 years, I will be either slowly getting old, or I'll have died young.

 

[Wolf]

I think a winged orbiter is in the somewhat near-future. If the DreamChaser gets funded (privately or otherwise), it'll be a welcome addition to the inventory of spacecraft we have.

On the other hand a new wing Orbiter would be for LEO missions and it looks NASA and other agencies are focusing on Mars/Moon programs.
I wonder if they will ever have the budget to sustain both projects...

I am also curious and maybe some wizard here can enlight me: do we have the technology now to make a better, safer and less expensive Space Shuttle? What would be the tech specs required to make it more reliable and cost effective then the old one?

 

[Urwumpe]

On the other hand a new wing Orbiter would be for LEO missions and it looks NASA and other agencies are focusing on Mars/Moon programs.

Remember: For getting everywhere, you need to get to LEO first anyway. A first launch to ejection is possible, but not much better.

A good LEO shuttle is not hindering exploration, it means you can specialize spacecraft more.

I am also curious and maybe some wizard here can enlight me: do we have the technology now to make a better, safer and less expensive Space Shuttle? What would be the tech specs required to make it more reliable and cost effective then the old one?

First of all: The old one was the first one. We learned billions of good and bad experiences from it. Those are invaluable.

Second: Technology progressed a lot in many fields since the STS. Take computers. Telecommunication. The STS was the first attempt at a reusable heat shield, now we have more options. Hydraulics for commercial aircraft already exceed the performance of the Space Shuttle hydraulics by far, by being stronger, lighter and cheaper than anything possible in 1974.

Additive manufacturing AKA 3D printing was practically unknown then, except to few really nerdy engineers. Today we can make even the primitive chemical rocket engines much lighter and more reliable by printing parts in shapes, that had been plainly impossible back then. Same for classic composite structures - what you thought is the bottom how light a structure can be 20 years ago, is today too heavy.

And yes, who could have thought 20 years ago, that a commercial company by some then unknown dude who helped founding Paypal 19 years ago is the first organization to test a Full-Flow Staged Combustion powerhead with significant thrust and cryogenic propellants today?

 

[Thorsten]

Why? Lets pick the news of August 1997: Is there any objective reason to assume it was better twenty years ago? We had even a tiny bit more nukes back then.

I think there is, yes. It's been a long time since political leaders threatened each other verbally with nuclear strikes for starters. Combine this with the fact that neither of said leaders is known to be the rational, quiet type who would never act out of an impulse and you get a worrisome picture.

Add to this the observation that partially due to the conduct of present-day academia, partially due to an incentive-system that doesn't actually encourage thorough science and partially due to other circumstances science is losing credibility rapidly. Yet, if the arguments for climate change are perceived as being 'made up' - what about arguments against a nuclear war? It seems even claiming that Earth is flat is fashionable these days.

In the past years, several democratic countries have turned to authoritarian leaders, affecting people I'm friends with - who also thought their life would pretty much go on as it used to and who now fear imprisonment or the increased violence in their respective societies.

It's not the number of nukes or of democratic countries that's indicative of something bad on the horizon - it's that many trends have reversed.

Anyway, I'll stop this here since I don't want to de-rail the thread completely. If you prefer, we can discuss this elsewhere.

 

[Urwumpe]

It seems even claiming that Earth is flat is fashionable these days.

Yes - and the question is: What is it? The art of rhetoric, in a form of mundane, trivial literature? Or physics?

I think this is in the best case just that first choice. A modern form of internet art.

Nobody who has a problem that needs to be solved will assume the world is flat... unless he is tower architect.

 

[dsb]

thanks for your answers - yes, as 'ADSWNJ' said there are a lot of other very interesting missions actually, but at least manned spaceflight is flat.

we will not be able to change anything but the minimum i could make is to set my comment online instead of doing nothing :tiphat:

let's hope that the actual plans will not be rescheduled to later dates (as it was the last years).