News The weather modification thread

[Soheil_Esy]

China's Nanchong shoots artificial rainfall rockets to relieve high temperature

2015-08-08

Staff members shoots artificial rainfall rockets into the sky in Nanchong City, southwest China's Sichuan Province, Aug. 8, 2015. Local meteorological bureau shot 15 rockets into the sky in the afternoon of Aug. 7 so as to relieve high temperature and drought.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2015-08/08/c_134494735.htm

Probably the most incredible ob I've ever seen. Bandar Mahshahr, Iran today: Temp: 109F (43C) Dew Point: 90F (32C).

https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/626726398883950592


August 4, 2015

The air felt like an exceptional 73 C (163 F) in Bandar Mahshahr, Iran, on Friday, and no relief is expected in the foreseeable future.

Due to extreme heat and humidity, Bandar Mahshahr registered an apparent temperature of 68 C (154 F) on Thursday. "That was one of the most incredible temperature observations I have ever seen and it is one of the most extreme readings ever in the world," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani.

However, such an exceptional apparent temperature outdid itself on Friday.

The combination of an actual temperature of 115 F (46 C) and a dew point temperature of 90 F (32 C) pushed the apparent temperature to 163 F (73 C) Friday afternoon local time. This reading would have been even higher if a breeze was not blowing, a factor in the calculation of the apparent temperature.

"A strong ridge of high pressure has persisted over the Middle East through much of July, resulting in the extreme heat wave in what many would consider one of the hottest places in the world," stated Sagliani.

"Around the Persian Gulf, where water temperatures are in the lower to middle 90s (30s C), the extreme heat combines with incredibly high humidity to produce astounding apparent temperatures," Sagliani continued in regards to the exceptional feeling heat around Bandar Mahshahr.

"As the land heats up around the Persian Gulf, the air rises quickly and rushes inland from the Gulf, creating an onshore wind that pulls humid air sitting over the waters into coastal communities," he added.

Water temperatures in the Persian Gulf are running a bit above normal, contributing to even higher than normal humidity.

"Believe it or not, it is always very humid in these places surrounding the Persian Gulf during the summer, but the nature of the extreme heat wave is causing some of the highest combinations of heat and humidity ever observed," he continued.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/no_foreseeable_relief_after_ir/51091128

Corrected Sunspot History Suggests Climate Change since the Industrial Revolution not due to Natural Solar Trends

7 August 2015

The Sunspot Number, the longest scientific experiment still ongoing, is a crucial tool used to study the solar dynamo, space weather and climate change. It has now been recalibrated and shows a consistent history of solar activity over the past few centuries. The new record has no significant long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated. This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot be attributed to increased solar activity. The analysis, its results and its implications for climate research were made public today at a press briefing at the International Astronomical Union (IAU) XXIX General Assembly, currently taking place in Honolulu, Hawai`i, USA.

The Maunder Minimum, between 1645 and 1715, when sunspots were scarce and the winters harsh, strongly suggests a link between solar activity and climate change. Until now there was a general consensus that solar activity has been trending upwards over the past 300 years (since the end of the Maunder Minimum), peaking in the late 20th century — called the Modern Grand Maximum by some [1].

This trend has led some to conclude that the Sun has played a significant role in modern climate change. However, a discrepancy between two parallel series of sunspot number counts has been a contentious issue among scientists for some time.

The two methods of counting the sunspot number — the Wolf Sunspot Number and the Group Sunspot Number [2] — indicated significantly different levels of solar activity before about 1885 and also around 1945. With these discrepancies now eliminated, there is no longer any substantial difference between the two historical records.

The new correction of the sunspot number, called the Sunspot Number Version 2.0, led by Frédéric Clette (Director of the World Data Centre [WDC]–SILSO), Ed Cliver (National Solar Observatory) and Leif Svalgaard (Stanford University, California, USA), nullifies the claim that there has been a Modern Grand Maximum.

The results, presented at the IAU XXIX General Assembly in Honolulu, Hawai`i, today, make it difficult to explain the observed changes in the climate that started in the 18th century and extended through the industrial revolution to the 20th century as being significantly influenced by natural solar trends.

The sunspot number is the only direct record of the evolution of the solar cycle over multiple centuries and is the longest scientific experiment still ongoing.

The apparent upward trend of solar activity between the 18th century and the late 20th century has now been identified as a major calibration error in the Group Sunspot Number. Now that this error has been corrected, solar activity appears to have remained relatively stable since the 1700s [3].

The newly corrected sunspot numbers now provide a homogenous record of solar activity dating back some 400 years. Existing climate evolution models will need to be reevaluated given this entirely new picture of the long-term evolution of solar activity. This work will stimulate new studies both in solar physics (solar cycle modelling and predictions) and climatology, and can be used to unlock tens of millennia of solar records encoded in cosmogenic nuclides found in ice cores and tree rings. This could reveal more clearly the role the Sun plays in climate change over much longer timescales.

The new data series and the associated information are distributed from WDC-SILSO [4].

Notes

[1] Note that the trend being discussed here is over longer periods than the familiar 11-year solar cycle.

[2] The Wolf Sunspot Number (WSN) ranks as the oldest time series in solar terrestrial physics still in use today, having remained untouched for over 160 years. Established by Rudolf Wolf in 1856, the method is based on both the number of groups of sunspots and the total number of spots within all the groups.

In 1994 the question began to arise as to whether the WSN was the correct method of constructing a historical sunspot record. The limitations of early telescopes meant that it was easy for smaller spots to be missed. With this in mind, a new index was established in 1998: the Group Sunspot Number (GSN), which is easier to measure and goes all the way back to the measurements done by Galileo, Thomas Harriot and Scheiner. This index was based solely on the number of sunspot groups. Establishing this system performed a valuable service by finding and digitising many sunspot observations not known or used by Wolf and his successors, effectively doubling the amount of data available before Wolf’s tabulations.

Unfortunately, the two series disagreed seriously before about 1885, and the GSN has not been maintained since the 1998 publication of the series. The GSN also revealed a pattern of continually rising solar activity, beginning in the 18th century and culminating in a Modern Grand Maximum in the latter part of the 20th century, which Wolf’s method does not suggest. Overall, the discrepancies were too large and the applications (solar dynamo, climate change, space climate) too prominent for the two systems to continue to exist in disagreement.

[3] They remain within a constant amplitude range for the normal 11-year cycle.

[4] WDC-SILSO is located in Brussels and is the current curator of the Sunspot Number time series and associated data products. It is a member of the World Data System of the International Council for Science (ICSU), dedicated to the preservation and distribution of large and/or long-duration reference datasets in all domains of science (https://www.icsu-wds.org/).

Large JPEG
Graphs demonstrating improved agreement between Old and New Sunspot Numbers. The top graph shows the level of disagreement between the old Wolf Sunspot Number (blue) and the old Group Sunspot Number (red). The lower graph demonstrates the increase in similarity between the two after being recalibrated.

Large JPEG
The Newly Calibrated sunspot Group Number over the last 400 years. A graph showing the sunspot Group Number as measured over the past 400 years after to the new calibration. The Maunder Minimum, between 1645 and 1715, when sunspots were scarce and the winters harsh is clearly visible. The modulations of the 11-year solar cycle is clearly seen, as well as the 70–100-year Gleissberg cycle.

http://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau1508/

 

[Urwumpe]

Ah... the famous Chinese weather modification program. The best example how you can make money from studying the climate history of your country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sichuan#Geography

Especially, since they fired the rockets only hours before a strong typhoon would make landfall in China (Which did not reach this province but caused record damages in eastern china due to catastrophic rainfall)

 

[Soheil_Esy]

Authorities seed clouds to douse giant chemical tank explosion at Rizhao Port

July 16th, 2015

Chemical tank with liquid hydrogen caught fire and exploded at Port of Rizhao, China. Into the fire fighting of the giant explosion were engaged 300 fire fighters and 50 trucks. The local authorities are seeding clouds to force raining in the scene of the accident to assist with firefighting. The chemical tank is located in Lanzhao Port Area and rented and operated by the local petrochemicals company Rizhao Shida Technology, which has total 300,000 DWT of cargo in the port. The explosion caused evacuation of the people living nearby and workers at Rizhao Steel factory, which is located in the region. The fire is not yet under control and the shore brigades are fighting with it. The local authorities started investigation for the root cause of the fire, but according to preliminary information the cooling system failed and after warming the tank exploded and fire erupted. During the accident there were no seriously injured people.

The liquid hydrogen is the liquid state of the element hydrogen, which is naturally in the molecular H2 form. To stay in such condition the liquid hydrogen need to be cooled at temperature below -252 degrees Celsius. The liquid hydrogen is a common liquid rocket fuel, in enriching the fuel cells, in neutron scattering and etc.

Port of Rizhao is deep-water seaport located on the southern shore of Shandong Peninsula on the Yellow Sea. It has 46 berths in Lanzhao Port Area and Shijiu Port Area. Port of Rizhao has annual throughput of 284 million metric tons. It is 10th busiest port in China.

http://www.newsmaritime.com/2015/chemical-tank-with-liquid-hydrogen-exploded-in-port-of-rizhao/

Video

[ame="http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e75_1437053986"]LiveLeak.com - Massive Explosion at Chinese PetroChemical Plant[/ame]

 

[Urwumpe]

If they tried the same kind of firefighting in Tianjin, it explains why the important port (tenth biggest in the world) near Beijing is now leveled due to the massive explosions yesterday.

Is there some kind of competition in China for maximum naivety?

 

[Soheil_Esy]

Atmospheric greenhouse gas release build-up reaching critical level

15 August 2015

After only two centuries of irresponsible European industrialisation, and as this industrialisation is today globalized thanks to centuries of forced colonization, atmospheric greenhouse gas release build-up seems now reaching a critical level. It appears that it becomes for the first time, a self-sustaining chain reaction type phenomenon. The higher the atmospheric temperature increases, the faster the Arctic methane is released. The release of methane from seas and soils in permafrost regions of the Arctic results in a positive feedback effect, as methane is itself a powerful greenhouse gas.

S☫heil_Esy

Mysterious crater in northern Siberia is turning into a lake


July 14, 2015

A Russian scientific expedition has concluded that a gigantic crater discovered in summer 2014 in the Yamal Peninsula in Western Siberia has begun turning into a lake. Over the past year the crater has filled with water and is now 10 meters deep.

Scientists had earlier suggested that the mysterious crater, which was found in 2014, would turn into a lake. Vasily Bogoyavlensky, the head of the expedition and a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oil and Gas, told RBTH that several Arctic seas might have resulted from similar circumstances.

Researchers have also proposed a new hypothesis: that the origins of most round-shaped tundra lakes on the Yamal Peninsula are linked to thermal gas. According to Bogoyavlensky, the process takes place on territories where there is paleo-congelation and the presence of underground ice. As a result of climate change, hills are emerging on these territories up to two kilometers in diameter and dozens of meters high.

“They look quite exotic against the flat tundra landscape,” Bogoyavlensky said. “Gradually, under the influence of high temperatures these hills disappear and form craters. A year ago, following the emergence of the Yamal crater, we learned that they can also explode.”

In 2014, three expeditions were dispatched to study the crater. All of them came up with different theories as to the origins of the phenomenon. The first one was proposed by scientists from the Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics in Novosibirsk.

According to these researchers, the zone where the crater is situated is located at the junction of two large faults that cross the peninsula. They think that the environment was heated by warmth coming up from the Earth’s core along the cracks in the crust, as well as from above due to the warm summer temperatures in 2014. There was also an emission of gas hydrates, which are present on the peninsula both deep underground and on the surface. The scientists believe that these are the same processes that occur in the Bermuda Triangle.

Where are the craters located?

The biggest crater is located approximately 30 kilometers from Bovanenkovo (70°26’17.00″N 68°19’27.00″E), on the territory of a large gas deposit. The hole's diameter is about 40 meters, but it is gradually increasing. Indirect signs indicate that the orifice could have appeared in spring 2014 or fall 2013.

The second crater (69°9’56.22″N 74°34’14.87″E), which, just like the third was noticed by deer herders, is located near the Antipayuta settlement and most likely appeared in September 2013.

The third oone (70°9’58.57″N 82°20’2.20″E) was discovered in April 2012, but only recently became well known. The second and third orifices are similar in dimension: their diameter is about 15 meters.

One of the "new" crater is located 10 kilometers from the deposit in Bovanenkovo.

http://asia.rbth.com/science_and_te...ern_siberia_is_turning_into_a_lake_47723.html)

 

[Ravenous]

After only two centuries of irresponsible European industrialisation,

Ouch. Were those your words or did you quote them from some other source?

 

[steph]

So the syberian craters pop up (no pun intended) again. Still, has there any definitive cause been established? The inner walls seem to indicate some sort of high pressure (at least to my untrained eye), but there's also a theory about ice somehow creating them.
Though, blaming it on "irresponsible european industrialization" is probably due to the recent Putin anti-western trend. We're all in this together, after all.
It's nasty, nonetheless. If it becomes a trend, it would be pretty much the most visual and disturbing effect of global warming so far.

 

[Urwumpe]

Ouch. Were those your words or did you quote them from some other source?

Don't overestimate it. For some regions of the world, everything west from Jerusalem is Europe. Even the USA is not a big country on its own continent, its a tiny island near Europe, a tiny bit west of England and Ireland.

And seriously. We DID start the fire. It brings little to object there.

 

[N_Molson]

England actually was the very first to lit the industrial revolution. And James Watt was the first to use a reliable steam machine. You can always find someone to blame, but that won't help a lot solving the issue.

What we have to fear the most is that giant "bubbles" of CH4, which is massively stored in the bottom of oceans or underground in tundra regions massively pop up to the atmosphere. And those holes scarily looks like it. That isn't pretty.

With enough CH4 into the high atmosphere, Earth can potentially turn into another Venus. The greenhouse effect would be terrible, temperature would rise enough to boil up oceans, releasing enormous amounts of steam into the atmosphere. Then the "pale blue dot" will become another yellowish one.

I fear for our childrens/grandchildrens, really. So let's get those space programs running, we're going to need them as a species, because there will be no borders in such a scenario... :2cents:

 

[Urwumpe]

England actually was the very first to lit the industrial revolution. And James Watt was the first to use a reliable steam machine. You can always find someone to blame, but that won't help a lot solving the issue.

Not just reliable - also effective. A lot of the ecological problems are just about poor efficiency. You can't really blame Europe for needing some decades to invent some more efficient technology. China for example is producing more CO2 in one year now, than England during the whole 19th century. The CO2 emissions grew at a pretty slow rate until 1945... and then it exploded a bit. And it increased way more extreme after 2000.

I think it is the lack of using such technologies.

 

[N_Molson]

Also China has probably more inhabitants today than the world had in the 19th century. Things have exploded there too. And they rely heavily on coal.

And still, being stucked in a traffic jam near a big city industrial zone isn't a pleasant experience, even in the most industrially advanced countries in 2015. I can believe it's a bit different in Germany, as the automobile industry is iconic there and the economy is still OK, but over there most people drive 10-20 years-old (which 95% are diesel) cars, that are not exactly eco-friendly. It's a matter of money. Mine is 20 years-old (but is amongst the 5% that drink unleaded gas - which is a good 15% more expensive at the pump -).

There's also the fact that the countries in Europe that can afford it try to produce in China as much goods as possible, in order to cut costs - and as a side effect, as heavy industry gets rarer, environnement improves -. So I'd say that european governments are very hypocritical about this, yes. The only thing that really has been done those last years is the construction of (85% nuclear)-electric tramway lines in some big cities, including Paris. Which creates traffic jams as share streets with cars...

And in the same time there are diggings in the East of France (hello Germany ! ) to begin to store deep underground radioactive garbarge from powerplants. But as bad as it is, it won't contribute to global warming. Probably not :shifty:

United States (or Russia) are a bit different : there, leaders don't pretend to be environnementalists.

 

[Urwumpe]

And still, being stucked in a traffic jam near a big city industrial zone isn't a pleasant experience, even in the most industrially advanced countries in 2015. I can believe it's a bit different in Germany, as the automobile industry is iconic there and the economy is still OK, but over there most people drive 10-20 years-old (which 95% are diesel) cars, that are not exactly eco-friendly. It's a matter of money. Mine is 20 years-old (but is amongst the 5% that drink unleaded gas - which is a good 15% more expensive at the pump -).

Oh its not pleasant here as well, but then, the problems are more on the psychological end here now. Wolfsburg for example has only very few older cars (like the iconic Mercedes cars that every male with turkish background needs), because nearly everybody here works for Volkswagen and gets a lot of rebate from Volkswagen for buying a new car. Many cars here are barely older than 2 years. (Its not Detroit here)

But if you are for example watching Berlin, the cars look more like your description, and so are the traffic jams. but then in Berlin, you only drive a car, if you really need to. The public transportation network there is partially unreliable, but extremely service oriented. You can get from A to B faster by X-line Bus and metro, then by your own car. (And for short distances: Faster by bike)

In response to your exporting heavy industry argument, you must say that our outsourcing to China likely improved the efficiency of the Chinese industry more than anything else. We have high standards for our regular products that we produce in China and we export those standards there. Much worse is what happens to things that have no European standards yet. For example recycling electronic junk, which is done in India often in a very inefficient and extremely polluting and health-damaging way.

 

[jedidia]

We have high standards for our regular products that we produce in China and we export those standards there.

No offense, but I've seen reports about how well those standards are being kept... True, usually still higher than your average Chinese industry, but they usually fall somewhat short of "considerate of the environment" - or the people, for that matter.
I knew a guy who did internal supervision for the chinese branch of a swiss company. He usually needed therapy after an extended trip :shifty:

 

[Urwumpe]

No offense, but I've seen reports about how well those standards are being kept... True, usually still higher than your average Chinese industry, but they usually fall somewhat short of "considerate of the environment" - or the people, for that matter.
I knew a guy who did internal supervision for the chinese branch of a swiss company. He usually needed therapy after an extended trip :shifty:

Depends on what you mean. If you mean stuff you buy at Ebay or Alibaba - yes, low price meets low standards.

But don't forget, that quite a lot of stuff, that has to meet higher standards, is also produced in China quite successfully. Even washing machines from China are now sold here, and they are not much worse than German ones.

Yes, likely around 80% is the typical low quality China junk, that usually ends in Asia or is sold domestically in China. And junk is meant to be literally. Chinese students in Germany are buying our powdered milk as if it is Apple stocks, because Chinese powdered milk is still considered hazardous.

But don't underestimate them - they are smart humans, too. Some century ago, German products had been junk and during the time it took to create "Made in Germany" as legislation for a warning sign on products, German products improved, also largely to the arrogance of the British industry and economic politics. Suddenly it became clear, that the junk was produced in England and the good products in Germany.

I would never ignore the possibility, that "Made in China" could one day be the same as "Made in Germany".

 

[Soheil_Esy]

As Seas Rise, NASA Zeros In: How Much? How Fast?

Aug. 26, 2015

Seas around the world have risen an average of nearly 3 inches since 1992, with some locations rising more than 9 inches due to natural variation, according to the latest satellite measurements from NASA and its partners. An intensive research effort now underway, aided by NASA observations and analysis, points to an unavoidable rise of several feet in the future.

The question scientists are grappling with is how quickly will seas rise?

“Given what we know now about how the ocean expands as it warms and how ice sheets and glaciers are adding water to the seas, it’s pretty certain we are locked into at least 3 feet of sea level rise, and probably more,” said Steve Nerem of the University of Colorado, Boulder, and lead of the Sea Level Change Team.

http://www.nasa.gov/goddard/risingseas

Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

11 Sep 2015

Abstract

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.

Climate scenarios and time series of ice loss.

Sea-level commitment from Antarctic ice loss.

Rate of sea-level rise.

States of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 10,000 years.

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/8/e1500589.full

North Korea Pavilion at World Expo Milan

June 9, 2015

The pavilion sat among a cluster of countries with smaller exhibits. It took a while to locate the pavilion, which was oddly set among the Islands, Sea and Food Cluster. Its neighbors were the Maldives, Carribean, Madagascar...etc. On the wall under DPRK’s flag, it talks about a nation struggling with the threat of rising sea levels. I assume that is the Maldives.

http://www.chosonexchange.org/our-blog/2015/5/22/north-korea-pavilion-at-world-expo-milan

Die 10 + 1 besten Pavillons auf der Expo Milano 2015

Aug 3, 2015

Extra-Bonus Nordkorea

Dieses Bild voller Widersprüche wollten wir euch nicht vorenthalten

http://www.weltfreund.at/blog/21_top-10-pavillons-auf-der-expo-milano.html

@Ravenous, you are right, keep up with the good work!:thumbup:

Don't worry, only natural selection for the genetically inferior breedings:rofl:

As Middle Easterners, we would love to live in a warmer and wetter world, and you?

S☫heil_Esy

 

[steph]

What do the North Koreans want with sea level rise? Did they suddenly get struck by environmentalism? It's gonna be quite a while until Kim Jong'il 's statues get wet , anyway
.
Well...barring any unforeseen events, I'll live to see disastruous sea level rise, so it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out. Scenarios like antarctic ice sheet collapse are a bit scarier than the usual gradual sea rise trend , though.

What was the worst case scenario? South-antarctic shelf slides into sea, causing epic tsunamis and something like meters of sea level rise within months? And changes in the climate patterns due to it disturbing oceanic currents?

 

[Andy44]

What was the worst case scenario?

Unrest caused by resource scarceness, leading to thermonuclear war.

Have a nice day! :tiphat:

 

[Urwumpe]

Unrest caused by resource scarceness, leading to thermonuclear war.

Have a nice day! :tiphat:

Especially: Unrest caused by resource scarceness of existential goods. Its hard enough if you have a drought. Now imagine a drought made worse by your neighbour upstream building a dam.

 

[Andy44]

Especially: Unrest caused by resource scarceness of existential goods. Its hard enough if you have a drought. Now imagine a drought made worse by your neighbour upstream building a dam.

Sounds like California.

But then again, California is no stranger to regular disasters. Earthquakes, mudslides, and fires, oh my! Now add drought to the list.

And don't forget the occasional race riot or the history of ethnic cleansing; that's good material for unrest. So is the history of shady water rights deals in order to build Los Angeles into the big modern city is is today.

For such a beautiful place with usually very nice weather they have lots of source material for 1970s Charlton Heston disaster films.

And yet it is an optimistic place, the very kind of place you'd expect them to believe they can, in fact, control the weather.