Give the Commercial Crew Program 31% of the money that NASA burned on SLS and Orion and I'm pretty sure we'd already have crewed Dragons and Dreamchasers making flights to the ISS.
Give me nine women and we can have a baby every month... *cough*
Sorry to be a bit nasty, but while I dislike SLS, I think what NASA does is still worth every dollar - since they do basic research and important applied sciences, that benefit all companies... often even outside the USA.
But still, what I meant to point out is, that SpaceX has not been cheaper, faster or more effective yet, than other organisations. And also not more reliable. A large lot of the money so far went into giving SpaceX a terrible vertical integration in the production process (Like also for Tesla, same horrible strategy that can only be explained by ego boosting). SpaceX produces almost everything around their product. From launch pad, over engines and launcher to even the payload. As if the rest of the industry didn't exist and everything that took place in the past 40 years had been wiped out by WW3.
If you analyze the past and the present announcements, you can easily come to the conclusion, that it is indeed possible to do better - by not being like SpaceX at all. And if you get to that conclusion, you can deduce, that you also need less money for positioning yourself faster on the market. You need no big show products. You need flexibility, and accepting to be hidden champion for sometime before you can get yourself into the limelight. SpaceX does it the opposite way, it gets from the limelight to the product and maybe it will have flexibility in some years. Currently it is telling customers and rivals, what the customers should want. That works in the consumer market, where generating hypes is everything you need. But only few companies base strategic decisions like launching a satellite on hypes. In reality, you need to be willed to even have your strategic rivals as operational customers. And be customer at times. Start with one thing and become the best in it. And then do another thing. Why does SpaceX need to produce their own engines, if they are so primitive, that approximately 120 SMEs in the USA could produce them or at least critical parts of them.
Economies of scale? Doubtful. Do you know the company Thermoplan? I am pretty sure, you never heard of them. But you know Starbucks, don't you? Thermoplan is a tiny company in Switzerland, that builds the coffee machines that are in every Starbucks shop - a small company, but for the invested money highly successful. And thousands of such companies exist in the world. There is even a company in the world, that makes a lot of profit by producing only one product and that usually only 2-3 times per year: It builds theaters for cruise ships.
The important question thus is: What do I really need to produce myself - and where should I better create markets for smaller companies around me to increase my flexibility? And which products can I do in the next five years that way?
SpaceX promises flexibility in time right now - but does not yet keep their promise how the customer expects it... rather they expect flexibility in time from their customers. They claim to get this flexibility by producing everything themselves - in reality, this is no sign of flexibility but the opposite. In reality the smaller companies around you can react much faster, than you can as big company. While you organize your own big company and trigger the initial processes, the small companies are very likely already itchy to be on-board, and when you call them, they will be already there. In your office, in one hour. With a contract-to-go.
And that is where my 31% estimate comes from - I don't need money to build my own industry. I need money for making others build my industry and tie them to me as suppliers. If needed from abroad. The only deal you should have is, if you depend on a single supplier. And yes, that single supplier could be you, in the end.
And if you need hypes...Give Reaction Engines 1% of the money that SpaceX got from NASA before they had done anything at all... would be more interesting IMHO, considering how disciplined they work with their small budget.
(If this long reply disturbs the news thread... please move it, where it fits better. Even if this is the trash bin)
