Science Alternate History: A Nazi Sputnik

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

So, I was just idly thinking about the second world war the other day, and I hit on an interesting idea. Obviously the German V2 was not capable of launch to orbit, but Germany was unquestionably the leader in most rocketry technology at the time (or at least willing to consider its uses, compared to the US)

I wonder if a clustered, staged approach to V2s, or even a completely new rocket with similar components could have been built, capable of launching a small satellite into orbit. If that were possible (and it would be doubtful, given how immature technologies like electronics and flight tracking were at the time), I wonder what sort of effects it could have had on the remainder of the war, say if this were to happen in about 1942-1944.

It would seem to me that the Third Reich could have gained a tremendous tactical advantage. By 1942-1943 the Luftwaffe clearly lost general control of the sky to the Allies, losing a great deal of reconnaissance ability in the process. For a satellite to be available to German intelligence though, they could probably have detailed intelligence photographs of anywhere in the world, while never needing to risk a single aircraft in the process, or even indicate their interest in the area.

Obviously many things would have had to happen for this scenario to play out, but it seems like an interesting thought problem to me. What do you think?

 

[Artlav]

Use of computers was not invented yet then - how would that reconnaissance satellite aim itself?
The only way to return pictures would be in an reentry capsule, so the cost of such reconnaisance would have been astronomical - impractically small photo/deutschmark ratio.

On the scale of other Nazi wunderwaffe projects of the time, it would likely had no effect on the war - just one more Nazi-claimed firsts added to the latter myths.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

Use of computers was not invented yet then - how would that reconnaissance satellite aim itself?
The only way to return pictures would be in an reentry capsule, so the cost of such reconnaisance would have been astronomical - impractically small photo/deutschmark ratio.

On the scale of other Nazi wunderwaffe projects of the time, it would likely had no effect on the war - just one more Nazi-claimed firsts added to the latter myths.

Well, how much farther had the guidance situation advanced by 1957?

I suppose you may have a point about the cost ratio, but that was actually the method by which the first US recon photos were recovered, & they were worth their weight in gold many times over (helping to defuse the myth of the missile gap in the race with the soviet union)

I suppose that does leave a manned launch...

 

[streb2001]

Well, how much farther had the guidance situation advanced by 1957?

transistors were not invented until 1947 so I doubt if a vacuum tube guidance system would have been practical on a satellite.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

transistors were not invented until 1947 so I doubt if a vacuum tube guidance system would have been practical on a satellite.

Of course that doesnt 100% rule out vacuum tubes, just makes it really difficult.

With regards to the guidance, maybe it would be possible to give it a non-correcting, preset series of commands to get it into orbit. Strange to think of it, but in the 40s a human pilot actually would have made a lot more sense.

But then some idiot minaturized electronics :chainsaw:

 

[Urwumpe]

Use of computers was not invented yet then

pardon? who had invented it? Actually Zuse wanted to use vacuum tubes already for the Z3 series, but had to use relais because vacuum tubes had been declared reserved for war efforts only, and his computer was minor priority to Nazi leaders, despite already achieving big improvements in speeding up engineering with minimal effort (Which says it all about the intelligence of Nazis)

also the first integrated on-board guidance system appeared around 1962 - until then, having room-sized computers on the ground was good enough.

 

[FADEC]

This is an interesting question. The launch of Sputnik was something which scared the Western world, especially the USA. "They can do it; we can't; what else could they do...?" was what actually made the USA the biggest space flight nation. But what if the Nazis would have been the first to launch something into orbit? Mhhh. I think the result would not be different really: end of WWII in May 1945 anyway, von Braun selling his other grandma to his new employer, and Russia trying to catch up anyway (which they did brilliantly).

I'm actually glad how everything took place. The (we) Germans didn't become able to do more stupid things with rockets, and the USA became the biggest nation in space, inspiring me in terms of space flight and aviation while the cold war ended with a peaceful revolution at the border of the German Democratic Republic, transitioning Europe into its most peaceful era (without the Euro by the way ).

I don't really want to know how else things could have gone badly wrong for Europe. Sometimes history runs a good path.

 

[Urwumpe]

I don't want to call what Europe went through a good path.

We went through hell and returned a different being. Stronger. Stranger. Half alive and half...something else.



(And the Euro is the price and the consequence of an unified Europe. You can't have national borders and national currencies and national economies in an unified Europe.)

 

[Artlav]

Human pilots would in fact make all the sense in that scenario, and it's unlikely the Germans would have thought of something else - even V-1s were considered to be fitted with a suicide pilot seat.

Still, launching a human into space and getting him safely home, along with some pictures he took is a massive undertaking, needing research in many areas - just supersizing a V-2 wouldn't cut it this time, and if we assume better tech, then we might as well assume that the Nazi escaped to the Moon in 1945.

I doubt if a vacuum tube guidance system would have been practical on a satellite.

Sputnik had at least a tube radio onboard, so it's plausible.

pardon?

Use of computers, not computers themselves, which were invented at least in the 19th century.
Realization of their uses and utility didn't happen until the second part of the century, AFAIK.

also the first integrated on-board guidance system appeared around 1962 - until then, having room-sized computers on the ground was good enough.

And when did the spy satellites appear?
Somewhere closer to 1968?

 

[Urwumpe]

First examples of utility of general purpose computers in research and engineering programs was in the middle of the 1940s. If you include electromechanical specialist calculators as computers (which they effectivly are), you even have their application in the military from 1905 on.

And when did the spy satellites appear?
Somewhere closer to 1968?

The Corona satellites appeared already 1959.

 

[FADEC]

I don't want to call what Europe went through a good path.

Yes. Not really. But it was a learning lesson.

(And the Euro is the price and the consequence of an unified Europe. You can't have national borders and national currencies and national economies in an unified Europe.)

In fact we had a unified Europe already for decades. The price and the consequence is too costly in the long run, which we already see these days. It didn't really unify Europe but it did unify only those which profit from it, which is not the average citizen. Europe is more than just a currency, and that it can only exist with such a currency is really stupid propaganda. But let's not discuss this here.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

pardon? who had invented it? Actually Zuse wanted to use vacuum tubes already for the Z3 series, but had to use relais because vacuum tubes had been declared reserved for war efforts only, and his computer was minor priority to Nazi leaders, despite already achieving big improvements in speeding up engineering with minimal effort (Which says it all about the intelligence of Nazis)

Well, even if the project was feasible, Hitler would likely have ruined it in some way anyways. From what I can tell he sounds like a reasonably bright guy with a knack for solving some problems, but he interfered almost to the point of compulsiveness in areas of design and execution, the Me 262 being a blatantly obvious example.

He also had a tendency towards armour & firepower in many areas, often forcing design teams to add unwanted features to hardware, an example of this being the otherwise excellent Panther tank.

My suspicion would be that he would derail a satellite project at some point due to these tendencies. Even in the forties, many people would have had a hard time grasping the concept, but it could have been revolutionary, even more so than the atom bomb.

also the first integrated on-board guidance system appeared around 1962 - until then, having room-sized computers on the ground was good enough.

Good enough for what?

You probably also need to define what computer is. Bletchley park could also have a solid claim to being the first...

This is an interesting question. The launch of Sputnik was something which scared the Western world, especially the USA. "They can do it; we can't; what else could they do...?" was what actually made the USA the biggest space flight nation. But what if the Nazis would have been the first to launch something into orbit? Mhhh. I think the result would not be different really: end of WWII in May 1945 anyway, von Braun selling his other grandma to his new employer, and Russia trying to catch up anyway (which they did brilliantly).

But, one thing a that a lot of people dont seem to realize is that between 42-44 WW2 was a definite race (when looking back in hindsight).

Even though the Allies never really were in major danger of losing the war by 1943, Germany developed a lot of very potent technologies during this time (Me 262, V2, the Tiger tank, and a few others) that really were only stopped due to lack of numbers & poor footing. If Hitler could have stopped the Normandy landings & delayed things by one year, the actual outcome of the war might have been much different. I would argue that in that scenario the western allies would probably have had to call a truce by 1950, particularly Britain due to the massive toll war had on the British finances.

I'm actually glad how everything took place. The (we) Germans didn't become able to do more stupid things with rockets, and the USA became the biggest nation in space, inspiring me in terms of space flight and aviation while the cold war ended with a peaceful revolution at the border of the German Democratic Republic, transitioning Europe into its most peaceful era (without the Euro by the way ).

I don't really want to know how else things could have gone badly wrong for Europe. Sometimes history runs a good path.

I agree heartily. In the end, one can only be thankful that histories tides turned as they did.

 

[Urwumpe]

Well, even if the project was feasible, Hitler would likely have ruined it in some way anyways. From what I can tell he sounds like a reasonably bright guy with a knack for solving some problems, but he interfered almost to the point of compulsiveness in areas of design and execution, the Me 262 being a blatantly obvious example.

I have to disagree here. Hitler was a charismatic, compulsive idiot. He was put into power for distracting from those who wanted to rule the country, but then proved to be smart enough in intriguing against all of them to become the leader.

The Me 262 was a great plane, but Hitlers orders to use it as Bomber :facepalm: was really a waste. But thats the problem with Hitler. People expect some evil genius behind his trademark, but in reality, there is just a poor Stromberg character, who has to prove his competence on everything that he has no competence for.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

I have to disagree here. Hitler was a charismatic, compulsive idiot. He was put into power for distracting from those who wanted to rule the country, but then proved to be smart enough in intriguing against all of them to become the leader.

The Me 262 was a great plane, but Hitlers orders to use it as Bomber :facepalm: was really a waste. But thats the problem with Hitler. People expect some evil genius behind his trademark, but in reality, there is just a poor Stromberg character, who has to prove his competence on everything that he has no competence for.

Yeah, discussing his personality is always a touchy subject.

All I can say is that he does sound like someone who was somewhat bright. Accounts about his personality later in the war often talk about him rattling off design specs & other pieces of data that he would use to drive unwelcome discussions off topic (like some Wermacht general reporting bad news from the front)

He does strike me as being somewhat knowledgeable from accounts like that, but his biggest problem seems to have been an inability to shut up and simply allow qualified military leaders to do their jobs. Dunkirk, Operation Barbarossa, and the Normandy landings all could have been overwhelming German victories if he had been willing to back off & let his generals work on their own.

I really cant say I think he was smart, but classifying him as a neanderthal wouldnt be accurate either. :shrug:

 

[Urwumpe]

Well, my grandmother had seen him and tried to find words for what he did to the people... he was really really charismatic and constantly trying to show that he has everything under control, giving a feeling of security. In reality, the last didn't be the case.

But then, really, he does not appear to be a very smart guy. He was a driven personality, who had to constantly stay on top of a fanatic group. Like all dictators, he became paranoid, and he had to decide, even if he had no clue.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

Well, my grandmother had seen him and tried to find words for what he did to the people... he was really really charismatic and constantly trying to show that he has everything under control, giving a feeling of security. In reality, the last didn't be the case.

I would be interested to hear what she had to say. Contemporary accounts speak about that charisma, but I cant figure out exactly what it was from historical footage. Im sure the backdrop of a massive Nazi rally would make anyone seem impressive, but his voice sounds, well ordinary...
Its hard to understand what really gave him such a magnetic personality.

But then, really, he does not appear to be a very smart guy. He was a driven personality, who had to constantly stay on top of a fanatic group. Like all dictators, he became paranoid, and he had to decide, even if he had no clue.

Very true, although his style was unusual in that it worked more on a "king of the hill" sort of strategy. Instead of executing anyone who could have been a threat, (cough, cough Stalin) he opted to reward them very publicly. I think the main reason for this was to create a sort of public image where a general killing him, & then taking power would be seen as ungrateful?

He struck me less as paranoid than simply overconfident. His ideas clearly seemed so right in his mind, that anyone questioning them would have to be following a different agenda.

I found the account of his argument with General Guderian during operation Barbarossa very revealing: he wanted to capture the Ukraine for economic reasons, Guderian advocated a push to Moscow for strategic reasons (ultimately correct I might add), and Hitler dismissed Guderians argument as being motivated by compassion for the troops, then relieved him. It wasnt so much that Hitler was not smart enough to identify the right solution, as much as he was inflexible about adapting to unfavourable circumstances.

 

[Ghostrider]

We went through hell and returned a different being. Stronger. Stranger. Half alive and half...something else.

Hence the current policies: Obedience without question. Loyalty until Underverse come.

 

[Notebook]

Re #12 above:

I would argue that in that scenario the western allies would probably have had to call a truce by 1950, particularly Britain due to the massive toll war had on the British finances.

Britain would have had to give up long before 1950, its army was worn out by 1944, and there were mutinies in 1945 when troops thought they would be moved to the Pacific.
If the Normandy landings had failed, its a moot point if they would have been attempted again soon.
An uneasy stalemate while the Germany fights the Red Army to a standstill?

Been a few books on Operation Sea-Lion, but I haven't seen anything on the repercussions of Normandy failing. Anyone ?

N.

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

Re #12 above:


Britain would have had to give up long before 1950, its army was worn out by 1944, and there were mutinies in 1945 when troops thought they would be moved to the Pacific.
If the Normandy landings had failed, its a moot point if they would have been attempted again soon.
An uneasy stalemate while the Germany fights the Red Army to a standstill?

Been a few books on Operation Sea-Lion, but I haven't seen anything on the repercussions of Normandy failing. Anyone ?

N.

Maybe theres an interesting project for some aspiring writer right there.

It was quite true unfortunately, WW2 took a tremendous toll on Britain. My feeling would be that the Soviets would have eventually beaten Germany, but the atomic bomb might have been developed by at least one of those two countries in the interim.

 

[Artlav]

repercussions of Normandy failing. Anyone ?

The brunt of the war was going on on the soviet front, rest of it were distractions.
By 1944 the Germany was already in full retreat, so the chances are that the war would have simply lasted a year or two longer, as the Soviets met more resistance from undistracted Nazis towards Berlin, and then some longer till they've secured the rest of Europe.

Might have actually been about as long - the USA was likely to make the A-bomb in about the same time frame, if not faster, except that now there would have been a few of them for the Germany.
Thus, the distraction would have come in 1945, and a much more shocking one than the west front.

Naturally, i'm just speculating freely, based on popular facts.
There are, unfortunately, no what-ifs in history.