Discussion On Russian/US space relations

[Chipstone306]

So here is my current fear. Due to rising tensions internationally is ther a possibility of either the us or Russia pulling out of their ISS commitment? If so, could there be a possibility of private ventures taking up the slack?
My theory is that the Russians pull out and that either the French or private sectors take up resupply....
Any thoughts?...........

 

[simonpro]

The Russians may threaten to pull out of the ISS project, but they'll never go through with it. They receive large amounts of western funding from the project, and it's just as important to their national science and development as it is to western countries.

Note that James Oberg (as usual) doesn't agree. He believes that there's a possibilty the Russians will disconnect their part of the ISS from the rest and fly it as a separate station. Technically possible but unlikely.

 

[GregBurch]

I think the concern is very valid; it worries me a lot. There's still a lot of value to be had from ISS, but that future value was already at high risk because of NASA's fumbling of its plans for access over the next 7-10 years. Now the threat to a steady and robust Russian participation makes things even worse...

 

[Urwumpe]

I think things are currently looking hotter as they actually are. I fear more, than the Russians disconnecting their part of the station (which is politically difficult - the computers on-board the russian side are build by ESA and contributed as part of the ISS contracts), that the current tensions are used as excuse to end the ISS project earlier. Except ESA, which got a big technology boost during the ISS project, which organization would really profit from the ISS? The USA would like to end their part in the ISS better earlier as later, and Russia could finally modernize their space program, if the obligations for the ISS would no longer exist. NASDA might complain, too, but they would like staying junior partner of NASA for a while, so why develop own technologies faster?

 

[Moonwalker]

May sound hard for some people but I don't fear a pull out of commitments at all because I don't call the ISS an important thing. We've seen Skylab and we've seen Mir. We know enough about living and working in zero g. And we already touched another heavenly body even before we had space stations. It's time already to go further again. Beside STS, ISS just was another expensive and useless delay after Apollo. STS for me is boring compared to Apollo. But the ISS even is a narcotic...

I'm for a new space race with the goal Moon and Mars rather than putting toys into low Earth orbit for antoher few decades Let's race the big nations once again!

If Orion won't go further as LEO in future than that's it for me with manned space flight and I'll stick with the history only.

 

[Chipstone306]

It is too bad that both nations can't put tensions aside for the benifits of science. I would love to see china participate in ISS issues. Unfortunatly from what i have read the US's suspicion on industrial espionage from the Chinese will prevent this

 

[Urwumpe]

We've seen Skylab and we've seen Mir.

We have also seen the Wright Flyer and the Concorde.


You have also very likely proved that you can swim - why should you go swimming again?

I think out of the many arguments against the ISS, this is a good contender for the most stupid argument.

 

[Ghostrider]

You have also very likely proved that you can swim - why should you go swimming again?

'Cause there be babes on the beach?

 

[n122vu]

I believe this fear is valid. In fact, I was thinking about this scenario just a few weeks prior to the escalation of the Georgia conflict. My fear was that the US would retire STS and then relationships with Russia would deteriorate for some reason (this was a hypothesis I was thinking about, not based on fact) and that would leave either ESA or the private sector to provide transport to the ISS for US astronauts. That possibility is one reason I am pulling for SpaceX to have a successful launch and establish themselves as one of the viable providers.

Another fear of mine: If Iran is working on the ability to launch men/satellites into space, what is to stop them (or Russia if situations escalate) from launching a hostile payload toward the ISS? What better way to make a statement against Western economics than to destroy something they have spent billions of dollars and years constructing? I would like to think that Russia would't consider this, especially with the money they themselves have invested in the ISS, but in times of war (should it for some reason get that far) mentalities change and other agendas take priority. One aspect of Russia I have always admired is their sense of pride and dedication to their homeland. I would understand if someone would participate in such an act for the sake of honor and duty to their country. But I would hope that I am just thinking worst-case scenario and this is not even close to what might happen.

 

[dougkeenan]

We know enough about living and working in zero g.

No, we don't.

 

[Chipstone306]

What about private sectors contributions ? Does anyone think that the private sector may pick up the slack? A commercialized ISS?

 

[simonpro]

n122vu, do you honestly think that the situation between the USA and Russia will ever reach the stage where one or the other attempts to destroy the ISS? I'm amazed, this entire Georgia thing seems to have been blown completely out of proportion. Anyway, no I don't think commercial suppliers will pick up the slack. There's nothing for them to gain from a commercialized ISS. I mean, the experiments don't make a profit and it's a crummy place to send tourists.

 

[Chipstone306]

I think n122vu views are of a worse case scenario. I can more believe of a situation where the ISS commitments from the US and Russia drop and private companies take up the supply missions and ESA takes up the rest of the slack. I would like to see my country begin to contribute more. The ISS has to become MORE international I believe. India, China, and other smaller countries with astronauts should be asked if they would like to contribute to the ISS not just the big 4.

 

[dougkeenan]

IMHO ISS is not a "crummy place to send tourists" so much as an extremely expensive place to send them.

This man in no way shape or form looks unhappy with his tourism!

 

[simonpro]

I was meaning in a commercial sense. With the current ISS set up you'd have to at least treble charges before you'd make a profit for each flight, and that isn't even including the time between flights (in which you'd need to keep the station supplied and crewed). Even if you launched a flight every month with 2 tourists aboard a soyuz you'd still struggle to break even.

 

[dougkeenan]

Fine. If you find a golden ticket in a chocolate bar, please forward it my way.

 

[Moonwalker]

@Urwumpe

In manned space flight we stick with wright flyers for decades now. ISS just is a new and bigger one in my point of view.


-----Posted Added-----

No, we don't.

Russia even does since Mir

 

[Urwumpe]

@Urwumpe

In manned space flight we stick with wright flyers for decades now. ISS just is a new and bigger one in my point of view.

That just shows that your view must be obstructed by too much bad science fiction.

The ISS is not only already the biggest structure in space (bigger than Mir), but it was also from the start the most advanced manned spacecraft. More advanced as Shuttle, Soyuz and maybe even more advanced as Orion. It's life support system is still the most advanced and still inferior to the originally planned system.

And also one of the biggest single projects in space. Not financial, but by the number of people involved.

What do you expect us to be able to do now?

Russia even does since Mir

Wrong. Russia does not even know all required skills and is still learning on-board the ISS. For example, we are still not able to do surgery in space. You had been able to do basic surgery on-board any wooden ship which sailed to the new world, but we still can't do that in space.

Again, you argue by ignorance. You feel content that we know it all - and that is wrong. But you are also never in risk of having to travel to space and experience the lack of knowledge yourself.

 

[dougkeenan]

Russia even does since Mir

That explains their absence from ISS then.

Can bees pollinate foodcrops in zero/low gravity?

 

[n122vu]

n122vu, do you honestly think that the situation between the USA and Russia will ever reach the stage where one or the other attempts to destroy the ISS? I'm amazed, this entire Georgia thing seems to have been blown completely out of proportion. Anyway, no I don't think commercial suppliers will pick up the slack. There's nothing for them to gain from a commercialized ISS. I mean, the experiments don't make a profit and it's a crummy place to send tourists.

No, I do not think it would ever reach that stage. Just a "what if" sort of speculation. But it is something that is scientifically possible, not just for Russia, but anyone with payload launch ability.

Totally separate from the Georgia situation. I've hypothesized about that to myself for some time now, just happen to be applying it as a "possibile" outcome of current events. Think of it as a storyline in a novel, not really a political prediction. Food for thought.