Quoting
Boris Chertok's speech made on Jan 26-30, 2009 in the course of the 33th Korolev's Academical Readings, here are the two snippets about the Moon and Mars (the original article can be found at
http://tvroscosmos.ru/frm/zhurnal/chertok.php).
What the spaceflight will be like in 2101?
Introduction - skipped
World states and the spaceflight - skipped
GEO development - skipped
Space warfare - skipped
The Moon
In 1986 the USA Congress and President created a national Committee that would develop the long term national space strategy for the nearest 50 years. This Committee's primary recommendation was building a permanent habitable base on the Moon in the 1st decade of the century 21.
This first decade is nearly over, but the Americans haven't begun building their Lunar base yet. At the moment, it is announced that space ships that can support building the base will appear before 2020. My personal opinion is that the USA are capable to build a Lunar base on their own, and if they do embark on this, the real beginning of works might happen in 2015. The building loop of a base that will be able to support 8 to 12 people on the Moon's surface will take them 8 to 10 years.
Russia did have plots for a Lunar base in the past. We jokingly called it 'Barmingrad' which means Barmin's City by the name of its chief designer. Building on the Moon won't require any new scientific discoveries. The contemporary technology can colonize the Moon quite well. However, any nation that would want to get such an outpost will face certain social, political, economical and international problems.
Minding that, it's safe to predict that Russia won't be able to build its own Lunar base for at least 20 years from now. Such a project can only see light if it turns to a nation-wide program targeted for many years of duration, exceeding in scale turning Sochi region to a Winter Olympic Games host and a resort no worse than French Riviera. Perhaps China will build their base about 5 years earlier than Russia. The 4th colonizer of the Moon will be India. Not very likely, but possible is collaboration between Russia and Europe for building the Lunar outpost. We can see a lively example of a similar joining of the technological and economical means, which is the ISS.
Unlike the ISS, Lunar bases can have triple purpose: scientific, industrial and military.
Making the joint entire Earth's Lunar colony is only possible if we overcome dividing the world into military and political blocks.
Knowing the possible strategic value of the Moon, it cannot be ruled out that the NATO block countries will unite their efforts on that. Joining the leading countries of Europe with the USA may help reaching the Lunar programmes' goals 3 to 5 years sooner.
The Moon is a territory belonging to Planet Earth. The Moon is a planet where people can live using the local resources. It is reachable for the Humanity with help of contemporary technology.
Last 3 or 4 billion years the Moon was bound to the Earth by the celestial mechanics laws only. In the century 21 we will get to bound them together with a reliable transportation system both for technology freights and the constantly active two-sided manned flight route.
The NATO will persist through the 1st half of the century, but other military blocks will appear too. For every such block, in case of a 'Star Wars' scenario there will be a temptation to ensure their own 'Space Superiority' by building at the visible side of the Moon a military installation filled with powerful ray and wide band pulse weapons. Future optical and radar systems will allow constant monitoring of everything that happens on Earth's surface, in the sea, air and near space. During military conflicts the Lunar bases will be able to strike first, taking out enemy's nuclear missile facilities.
The world's astronomy and astrophysics will benefit greatly from building observatories on the back side of the Moon. The Moon itself will serve as a screen blocking the observatory from Earth-sourced noises which hamper sensitivity of the contemporary ground-based instruments. Radio observatories on the back side of the Moon will be outfitted with great scale parabolic mirrors and phased array sensors. All the SETI enthusiasts will get much greater opportunities than they have today.
Mars
Today's Mass media, and sometimes famous scientists and politicians say that the nearest decades will see manned Martian expeditions. Flying of people to Mars are declared the mainstream of the 21th century's spaceflight not only by Mars fanatics, but also by some statesmen. It should be admitted that from the technology point of view, flying of people to Mars will be possible in the century 21. However, it's not easy to prove that manned expeditions should be the primary part of the promising plans for the close future.
Indeed, what's the point in investing no less than $300-500 billion, paying for labour of many thousands workers, engineers, scientists if the remote controlled robots are already able to answer every question the people of Earth would like to get an answer to? Automatic Mars satellites, rovers that travel across the surface have already reliably proven that Mars surface has no life on it. Before the end of the century I expect no less than 8 to 10 more advanced rovers to arrive on Mars. They will study the planet's atmosphere, soil and climate dynamics, not having to rush anywhere. The new information will be acquired without putting lives of people to great risk.
Cosmonauts of a Martian expedition would have to spend almost a year in a zero-g environment just on their way there. Immediately after landing, they will have to begin preparing for the even riskier back trip (unlike on the LEO missions, the Earth will not be able to help them in any way). It is my strong conviction that flying of people to Mars in the century 21 will be possible, but not necessary. The ambitious goal won't pay off the huge expenses and risk. However, there are some projects that propose sending to Mars expeditions not a 6-12 persons group, but thousands of men and women. Are you asking, why?
Inevitable global catastrophes (climate change, nuclear war, a huge meteorite fall) will result in quick Earth's civilization degradation or complete vanishing the way dinosaurs have extinct. The Humanity will be obliterated. So that's why Chinese scientists have proposed their contingency plan. Chinese civilisation will have to survive in a reservation on Mars. Before the possible end of the entire Humanity China will get to create a settlement on Mars which would be able to sustain lives of no less than 1000 people. They will bring life supporting technology and the means of future returning to Earth with them.
The planet Mars is not human habitable. But there is simply nothing better in the Solar System. After waiting for the conditions on Earth becoming hospitable again, the Martian Chinese will begin returning to Earth (that happens long after centuries 21 and 22). The Humanity begins spreading again. But the entire planet and the technology keeping civilization at it will be Chinese.
This project of saving the Humanity was published by certain very serious and competent Chinese scientists. Every American, Russian and other known projects of a Mars expedition is a mere amateur's air trembling compared to that. The question is, however, how long it will take China to begin colonizing Mars? I believe it may happen no sooner than at the end of century 23.
Revolutionary discoveries - skipped
The least possibility prediction - skipped
