Launch News (FAILURE) Progress M-12M, Soyuz-U, August 24, 2011

[Urwumpe]

:rofl:

This guy has a real sense of humor.

Well compared to Proton, it is....

 

[IronRain]

Spaceflight Now: Space station could be abandoned in November

Astronauts may need to temporarily withdraw from the International Space Station before the end of this year if Russia is unable to resume manned flights of its Soyuz rocket after a failed cargo launch last week, according to the NASA official in charge of the outpost.

Despite a delivery of important logistics by the final space shuttle mission in July, safety concerns with landing Soyuz capsules in the middle of winter could force the space station to fly unmanned beginning in November, according to Michael Suffredini, NASA's space station program manager.

"Logistically, we can support [operations] almost forever, but eventually if we don't see the Soyuz spacecraft, we'll probably going to unmanned ops before the end of the year," Suffredini said in an interview Thursday, one day after Russia lost a Soyuz rocket with an automated Progress resupply ship bound for the space station.

{...}

 

[N_Molson]

:facepalm:

 

[ky]

:facepalm: It may take awhile, but at least the station(hopefully) will still be in orbit.

 

[evilfer]

Spaceflight Now: Space station could be abandoned in November

Despite a delivery of important logistics by the final space shuttle mission in July, safety concerns with landing Soyuz capsules in the middle of winter could force the space station to fly unmanned beginning in November, according to Michael Suffredini, NASA's space station program manager.

Warning: potentially silly questions ahead:

I don't understand this . Are these safety concerns aggravated by resupply problems?

Also, independently of the supplies, if the only way back to Earth from ISS is unsafe (how much?), shouldn't ISS be left unmanned anyway in Winter?

And another thing, when it's Winter somewhere it's Summer somwhere else right?

 

[Artlav]

And another thing, when it's Winter somewhere it's Summer somwhere else right?

Nobody would let you land a Soyuz in Africa, and Australia is too small a target.
Where else?
Brasil? Too much trees.
India? Too much mountains.
China? No comments.

Besides, what's wrong with a winter landing?

 

[ky]

Nobody would let you land a Soyuz in Africa, and Australia is too small a target.
Where else?
Brasil? Too much trees.
India? Too much mountains.
China? No comments.

Besides, what's wrong with a winter landing?

What about the U.S.? Land near EAFB or White Sands.Or is there something wrong with this?

 

[Urwumpe]

What about the U.S.? Land near EAFB or White Sands.Or is there something wrong with this?

1. if something goes wrong during guided reentry, it switches into ballistic and lands about 800 km earlier. The USA are pretty densely settled and the risk of landing on something important pretty high.
2. There is absolutely no problem landing a Soyuz capsule during the winter. Only stronger winds pose a problem since Soyuz lacks a horizontal velocity compensation.

 

[N_Molson]

I don't understand this . Are these safety concerns aggravated by resupply problems?

No, they are aggravated because a Soyuz is designed for a maximum duration of 200 days (correct me) in space, and if that duration is exceeded, then there is no guarantee that the engine will ignite, that the separation of the modules will perform correctly, that the battery will charge, this kind of stuff... A landing in Winter would be too late, that's not a matter of climate at all. Snow is excellent, it makes a cushion and kill any start of fire.

 

[Wonderer]

Warning: potentially silly questions ahead:

I don't understand this . Are these safety concerns aggravated by resupply problems?

Also, independently of the supplies, if the only way back to Earth from ISS is unsafe (how much?), shouldn't ISS be left unmanned anyway in Winter?

And another thing, when it's Winter somewhere it's Summer somwhere else right?

Ninja'd.

*It's not the shortage of supplies. The unmanned cargo spacecraft and the manned spacecraft are launched on the same type of rocket. Since this rocket failed engineers have to find out why it failed and how to make sure it doesn't fail again, and this procedure takes time. That is why any further manned flights to the ISS are grounded. The two spacecraft that flew the current crew of the ISS are still docked to it, serving as rescue vehicles, but these two spacecraft have a limited amount of time they can spend in the extreme conditions of space (11 months if I'm not mistaken). So if flights do not resume by the time the two docked spacecraft have to leave - the station will be left unmanned (safety regulations do not allow the crew to stay without rescue vehicles).

*Usually expeditions to the ISS last roughly six months, so landings occur during spring and autumn.

 

[evilfer]

No, they are aggravated because a Soyuz is designed for a maximum duration of 200 days (correct me) in space, and if that duration is exceeded, then there is no guarantee that the engine will ignite, that the separation of the modules will perform correctly, that the battery will charge, this kind of stuff... A landing in Winter would be too late, that's not a matter of climate at all. Snow is excellent, it makes a cushion and kill any start of fire.

I get it . Anyway, about the climate, the Spaceflight Now article says the second Soyuz docked to the ISS will be good until December/January. However, they prefer to use the November reentry window to avoid having to look for the landed capsule in the middle of a winter storm at night.

Just the phrase "safety concerns" had made me think it was some risk with the Soyuz operation.

 

[Urwumpe]

However, they prefer to use the November reentry window to avoid having to look for the landed capsule in the middle of a winter storm at night.

Not really a bad idea, especially since, while the capsule can really land in any weather, landing in strong winds means torture for the astronauts inside the capsule until the parachute separated.

 

[T.Neo]

The capsule swings below the parachutes like a pendulum?

 

[Urwumpe]

The capsule swings below the parachutes like a pendulum?

Yes, but worse is that after landing the capsule is dragged behind the parachutes in the wind and rolling over the ground at pretty high speeds.

 

[evilfer]

Yes, but worse is that after landing the capsule is dragged behind the parachutes in the wind and rolling over the ground at pretty high speeds.

So they really avoid winter landings . In contrast with Shuttle, Soyuz from ISS have always landed between mid March and 1st December [[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_International_Space_Station_expeditions"]wikipedia[/ame]]. Or is it for other reasons?

On the other hand, Soyuz visiting MIR did land in February and January [[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_manned_space_missions"]wikipedia[/ame]].

 

[Urwumpe]

So they really avoid winter landings . In contrast with Shuttle, Soyuz from ISS have always landed between mid March and 1st December [wikipedia]. Or is it for other reasons?

On the other hand, Soyuz visiting MIR did land in February and January [wikipedia].

There are not many landing constraints, but visibility for the rescue teams is important. Also, they made bad experiences with landing on frozen lakes, which they prefer to avoid in the future.

 

[SiberianTiger]

http://www.federalspace.ru/main.php?id=2&nid=17789&hl=%E3%E0%E7%EE%E3%E5%ED%E5%F0%E0%F2%EE%F0

Members of State Commission determined the cause for abnormal function of the 3rd stage's engine. That happened due to violation of conditions for gas generator's operation.

After drawing the conclusions of the State Commission and establishing of the list of measures to take aboard the ISS, international partners will be informed for coordination of plans.

 

[Orbinaut Pete]

From ISS On-Orbit Status Report for 29/08/2011.

Progress 44P Update:
Soyuz TMA-21/26S will not depart on 09/08; NASA & Roskosmos are continuing to discuss options for 26S return and Soyuz TMA-22/28S launch; currently, there is no baseline plan yet. The Progress M-12M/44P impact site in southern Siberia (Altai Region) is in a very wooded and mountainous area. It appears to be spread over a large area, with "many tiny pieces" scattered about. With current capability, all consumables on board ISS are good into 2012, even with a six-person crew. Soyuz spacecraft stay time is limited to 210 days, and a 210 day crew stay is acceptable from both the NASA Crew Office and NASA medical perspectives.

 

[orb]

SPACE.com: Report: Russia Identifies Cause of Rocket Launch Failure

 

[SiberianTiger]

SPACE.com: Report: Russia Identifies Cause of Rocket Launch Failure

Looking at how it is officially worded, they still have to identify the cause of this "identified cause".