Peak Oil

At what price do you think the oil barrel will be on July 1st 2009


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Cairan

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It's the result of the lobotomy that the Green Left has performed on our civilization over the last 40 years.

GB, THHotA

Just to bash our greenpeace friends a little more, did you know their non-profit charitable status has been revoked nearly 20 years ago in Canada? Revenue Canada considers them a lobbying firm. Too bad the IRS hasn't followed suit.


On the defense of anti-nuclear advocates, I will take side that technology back in the 60s and 70s was not mature enough for a widespead adoption of nuclear power. Reallity was not too far from the portrayal of the industry in the Simpsons. And Chernobyl really had a couple of "Homer" in their ranks...

Nowadays, I feel much more secure with going along with nuclear power as computer modelling, long term radiation effects on alloys and other advances have furthered our knowledge base.

Just as long as the primary coolant pumps are not Made in China. :blink:
 

GregBurch

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Regarding thorium reactor technology (and nuclear reactor technology generally) I HIGHLY recommend this site:

http://thoriumenergy.blogspot.com/

I generate way more than half of my income from dealing with issues relating to construction of energy industry facilities. My law firm handled the largest piece of litigation relating to construction of nuclear facilities in history (the South Texas Nuclear Project cluster****). I know BS on the subject of energy tech when I see it, and I know what someone who knows what they're talking about sounds like. This guy is the real deal. When I started digging into the introductory material that's pegged at the top of his blog, I was simply blown away by how much really good engineering thinking by others he had gathered together and done himself.

Since discovering that website, I've been pretty much telling people RTFM before I have detailed conversations with them about energy policy.

GB
 

Urwumpe

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On the defense of anti-nuclear advocates, I will take side that technology back in the 60s and 70s was not mature enough for a widespead adoption of nuclear power. Reallity was not too far from the portrayal of the industry in the Simpsons. And Chernobyl really had a couple of "Homer" in their ranks...

Nowadays, I feel much more secure with going along with nuclear power as computer modelling, long term radiation effects on alloys and other advances have furthered our knowledge base.

The problems I see with nuclear power:

a) We still have many Homers around. Often they actually smart guys, who just work on a bad day. Doing the right in the wrong situation can happen more often as you would like.

b) Nuclear power only is safe, when controlled really strict and with really hard sanctions. The published record of failures and potential safety hazards not addressed in German nuclear power plants is not only a very long list, the number of problems did never really drop. Some problems, which are not directly safety critical, but can worsen the situation when something goes wrong, are often left unfixed for decades.

c) Thanks to the polarization between anti-nuclear and pro-nuclear groups, we have never really had a true discussion about the safety in nuclear reactors. Depending on who you ask, nuclear reactors are either now safe or totally unsafe. People who would like to research the topic accurately are often having a hard time getting information without getting absorbed from one of the sides.

d) The same problem in politics - instead of dealing with problems, they got ignored away or turned into everlasting discussions and election campaign stuff.

e) The way we deal with nuclear waste today can be best described as "hoping to never see it again". Good research on the long term effects on the stability of mines are not known. Most research published until today was often done without validation of the results - with the result that we still can't say it is safe to store nuclear waste somewhere long enough that it's radioactivity drops below harmful levels before coming back again.


So as summary: As long as we don't do the best we know according to current state of research, we can't say nuclear power is safe. And I consider a reactor safe at the point, it's rate of anomalies drops after a few months of initial operation, raises only shortly before a scheduled major maintenance halt and is still lower as the initial rate of anomalies when it gets shutdown for ever.

The current state is: The number of anomalies that occur is still far higher the number of anomalies which should be possible according to research. Which means for me: Either the research is wrong and too optimistic, or the research is not used for improving the safety of reactors.
 

Art

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I voted 75-125 dollars a barrel. Mind you, that isn't the price of the OIL, just the price of the barrel itself ($76-$89 depending on quantity). You see, I am getting into politics these days.
I am Green Left. Not idiot left. Let's not generalize "Green" with "Idiot" please. Green is science. Green is sustainability. Green is "let's do something about it". Idiot Left is the same thing packaged into a red-head middle aged female hitting menopause, working with an average IQ or less and taking the issues as if someone were attacking her children (that is to say that you can say anything, you should pull your hair and beat your chest all you want) and taking every debate as a personal confrontation. Uh, no.

Does anyone else here have a problem with the idea that the US average joe (and the idiot left, and the idiot right...which is a large faction indeed) still doesn't know the difference between a nuclear bomb and a nuclear reactor, much less chernobyl and a modern facility. They hear the words nuclear waste and don't know that spent fuel can actually be re-processed (and why we are not doing so).

Seems to me that our nuclear proliferation treaties are set up wrong.

If all plants capable of re-processing fuel were coastal, run by a non-national interest, using full transparency and disclosure, we should not have the worry that they would be used for weapons production. Re-processing fuel shipped to and from coastal areas should not be a big issue. If a country is going to make weapons, we really cannot directly stop them anyway. If they are going to have green nuclear power, they need the ability to re-process what is now called "high level waste".

Solar, in my opinion, is not such a hot idea. Why? Let's take a Stirling dish farm, a wind farm and a reactor producing 1 gwh annually:

Sun Farm:
9000 acres of shaded land...pretty drasticly altered landscape covered with extremely expensive to maintain complex dishes that are actually pretty darn dangerous to work on (but not as dangerous as wind turbine repair). This, in an extremely sunny area puts out 1gwh a year. You cannot use this for total energy use unless you ramp up the costs by a factor of ten to store and release the energy on demand. This will drop efficiency by a factor of 2.5 which would be a huge waste of lost energy. Largest solar array in existence is the Stirling Farm at 4500 acres. Vulnerable to environmental damage (sandstorms, tornadoes, corrosion, etc.)

Wind Farm:

350 ( 1 mwh turbines actually putting out .35 mwh a really optimistic or well placed farm) tubines. This equals the largest PLANNED array so...this is something on the charts. This planned farm might actually only rate at an output of 1/3 that on a bad year. For best efficiency, these should be located on a site of 3500 acres. It cannot be the sole source of power for an area. Maintenance and such are difficult to perform, and there are serious environmental (meaning vulnerability to weathering) issues. A storm at sea (hurricane), or a tornado over land would devastate the set up. This is less risky in Europe than in North America (we have much more violent weather phenomena). Turbines are hideously noisy.

A very small nuclear power plant at 1 gwh. Takes approximately 500 acres due to security concerns but could easily be located on 26 acres. Not very vulnerable to anything. Quiet. Increases localized water temperature around the discharge (which manatees and fish do not seem to mind and actually take advantage of). Puts out steam which is a greenhouse gas, but not exactly environmentally devestating. Energy output can vary with demand, or it can operate at full capacity continuously. Easy to tie into existing distribution systems. Fuel transport can be achieved with a very small vessel, on very infrequent occasion.


I pick door #3.
 

simonpro

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350 ( 1 mwh turbines actually putting out .35 mwh a really optimistic or well placed farm) tubines. This equals the largest PLANNED array so...this is something on the charts. This planned farm might actually only rate at an output of 1/3 that on a bad year. For best efficiency, these should be located on a site of 3500 acres. It cannot be the sole source of power for an area. Maintenance and such are difficult to perform, and there are serious environmental (meaning vulnerability to weathering) issues. A storm at sea (hurricane), or a tornado over land would devastate the set up. This is less risky in Europe than in North America (we have much more violent weather phenomena). Turbines are hideously noisy.

Actually Denmark is planning a 500MW turbine array (increasing an existing one from 166MW), they're also in the middle of building a 400MW array. Currently each 2MWh turbine produces an average of 1.4MWh, which is pretty decent. They've also been proven to survive winds of up to 120mph with no damage (although they were, of course, shut down during the storm).
Furthermore if you build them well enough they're not really that noisy. I've sat in a boat at the bottom of Middelgrunden and can still have a conversation at normal volume without any real difficulty.

The issue with non-constant power is true though, here they steal power from the Swedish grid to satisfy peak loading.
 

Urwumpe

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Just some counter-arguments for the discussion:

Solar power plants: Useless as classic power plant, but can be very helpful as decentralized solution. While it is really ineffective as single source of power, it can be used very effective for reducing the power demands of houses. Fitting the whole south side roof with solar arrays and respecting it in the design of the house could mean, that during the summer your house operates without consuming external power during the day, and could maybe even produce energy to be stored, for example hot water.

Would of course be no solution for large scale power generation.

On the wind farm calculations: You should include that wind farms can, in fact be co-located in farming areas or off-shore. ;)

Off-shore wind farm actually become pretty solid technology, from what I can tell, after all, they had researched the problems of really large wind power plants since 25 years and now even managed to convince ecologists that building a large wind park does not kill birds stupid enough for flying into a wind power turbine...

Also Tornadoes and water sprouts are not really rare here. In whole Germany, we have around 90 tornadoes per year and countless water sprouts (which are not included in the statistics), which is a lower density as in Tornado alley, but still not really much lower - per km² surface, it is only about 80% of the tornado density in the USA. Strength of the tornadoes is also not weaker as in the USA - the distribution of the observed tornadoes in Germany by their rating on the EF scale is statistically the same as in the USA.

Hurricanes are not occuring here, which is a great advantage... but the bigger problem is in fact the higher population density in Germany - while modern turbines are no longer as noisy as the older models (one manufactorer dropped for example the need for a gear box between turbine and generator) and can be placed without problems closer to residential areas, safety concerns mean that there still has to be some distance between a turbine and the next house.

Summary: No match for a nuclear power plant, when it comes to constant large power output, but effective as regenerative power source - compared to solar and water. And less good as geothermal power.

The argumentation of "integration into existing power networks" is also a weak one - we waste lots of power inside our power networks because the power companies ignored their infrastructure for decades. When the demand increased, they just build a new power line with old materials and standards, instead of slowly incorporating modern research. The result is, that the power network is already requiring emergency plans, when the German national team plays.

Also, because of the lack of interest in effective power networks, we still use the cheap overland lines instead of the more effective subterrean lines, which cost much more to install, but require less maintenance and loose less power.

On Door #3: Replacing fuel in PWRs require a full power down of one reactor core. The small vessel transporting a single set of fuel elements becomes a large convoy, when you need to replace the whole reactor core at once for reducing downtime and also need to care that nobody with political or economic interests tries to steal your fuel. infrequent is also about every 5 years if you have two cores per station.

High waste water temperatures cause actually sewere problems - the oxygen solved inside the water gets reduced by small changes in temperature and limit the life in the river to algae (which also kill the other plants by stealing light and nutrients) and anything which can breathe air, does not require special food and does not get disturbed by swimming inside a stinking liquid.

We had strong problems with our local coal power plants causing actually a 2 km long desert in the river after it's waste water outlet, before people got really angry, as only some water birds had no problems with the mess, but the remaining life getting displaced away. The diversity only restored in the river after fresh cold water entered the river from another river. Now, the water they dump is a bit colder, got enriched with more oxygen by artificial rapids before the outlet and the river again became filled with life (took about 15 years from the construction of basins to cool the water down to the current, almost natural state).

Also I am sure, even humans don't like bathing in warm water, when it is a brown smelly mass.

Steam is also not the only output of nuclear reactors, they also release more or less tiny amounts of radioactive dust during operation - a problem which is mostly related to bad operation standards and could be prevented.

And finally: All nuclear power plants are practically single points of failure - they concentrate so much power generation capacity of a country, that one of them failing is already stressing the power budget of the country. Also, terrorist attacks and air strikes have easier targets with such large installations - ask Iraq or Iran, if air defense can be enough...
 

GregBurch

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I voted 75-125 dollars a barrel. Mind you, that isn't the price of the OIL, just the price of the barrel itself ($76-$89 depending on quantity). You see, I am getting into politics these days.
I am Green Left. Not idiot left. Let's not generalize "Green" with "Idiot" please. Green is science. Green is sustainability. Green is "let's do something about it". Idiot Left is the same thing packaged into a red-head middle aged female hitting menopause, working with an average IQ or less and taking the issues as if someone were attacking her children (that is to say that you can say anything, you should pull your hair and beat your chest all you want) and taking every debate as a personal confrontation. Uh, no.

Well, I stopped calling myself an "environmentalist" years ago, when that term became a stalking horse for people who simply don't like science and technology, and fear human liberty. I now call myself a "conservationist", since it SHOULD be possible to conserve a great deal of what makes this planet great, and still preserve a civilized way of life.

As you may have gathered (it would be hard not to), I also utterly reject Marx and all his evil spawn, as a purveyor of a seductive fantasy about what is possible in terms of centralized control through the power of the state. Communism hasn't been "defeated," it's just morphed into more survivable memetic form, and continues to infect our civilization as a mistake that apparently has to be made over and over and over again.

At any rate, I welcome any semblance of sanity about energy and technology issues among those who count themselves "Green" or "Left". As such a person, Art, what do you reckon the chances are of getting your fellow-travelers to wake up about nuclear energy?
 

GregBurch

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Urwumpre, regarding your last post, I would make two comments:

1. regarding solar power, huge improvements in efficiency and manufacturing are at least possible over the next 20-50 years. When coupled with steadily improving battery technology, distributed solar generation is a real possibility for powering almost our whole civilization by the end of the 21st century ... if there's anybody left around, that is.

2. Regarding nuclear issues you indicate, your points are all correct -- with the current paradigm of huge, complex reactors. One of the main benefits of thorium reactors is the possibility of safely building far more smaller, simpler reactors -- ones that are manufactured, installed and distributed much more along the lines of current gas turbine peaker plants.
 

Urwumpe

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1. regarding solar power, I huge improvements in efficiency and manufacturing are at lest possible over the next 20-50 years. When coupled with steadily improving battery technology, distributed solar generation is a real possibility for powering almost the whole civilization by the end of the 21st century ... if there's anybody left around, that is.

Well, I don't think we can one day get all our power from regenerative, non-nuclear sources. Increasing capabilities of humans also means that they require more power. Not all increase in capability can be created by better effectivity. And that is what it is all about. We reach a level so close to becoming transcendent, that we can invest some hours of our life for watching MTV instead of having to harvest our dinner.

2. Regarding nuclear issues you indicate, your points are all correct -- with the current paradigm of huge, complex reactors. One of the main benefits of thorium reactors is the possibility of safely building far more smaller, simpler reactors -- ones that are manufactured, installed and distributed much more along the lines of current gas turbine peaker plants.

Yes, also the possibility would be there to create reactors which would only need to have a small part of their fuel inside the core and can operate with only minimal downtime and shorter response times. Also the lack of use for nuclear weapons and the pretty low radioactivity of the fuel, before shooting neutrons at it, means that it is possible to operate such a power plant with lower security requirements - only the common raw material theft would be a problem.

As supplement to possible fusion reactors, they could have a chance as long as it is not sure how small a fusion reactor can be made. Currently it all looks like the minimum effective size for a fusion power plant could already replace 3 current fission reactor blocks.
 

Art

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My "Fellow Travellers" meaning observers of reality..including MOST of the Greenpeace founders including a fellow sailor Patrick Moore are nuclear proponents.

You heard right Greg....Nuclear proponents.

You talk of Greenpeace being this or that...but what did they really do?

Let's see: They helped ensure that plants like Chernobyl were not built in the US, and they influenced decisions that may have resulted in 3-mile being contained instead of an actual disaster. Yes, these guys were against the early forms reactors...for good reason. Yes, they used total idiot whack-o's to achieve these goals. Why? Because most of the public they needed to convince have Average IQ or below(that's true, add one leg and the middle of the bell curve up and you get more than the other leg...). It is far easier to convince them than it is to try to educate them...especially when the other side is trying to convince instead of educate, and the public really doesn't like educating itself. Soon however unfortuantly, Greepeace was taken over by the idiots they used...idiots that actually believed in the extremist line of denial. That does not mean that they do not still serve to counterbalance the opposing line of idiocy on the other side of the equation. For us, it is hard to relate to, and I hate the spread of mis-information on either side, but this crap actually moves policy around quite a bit. Anything that slows corporate opportunisim from digging into every niche and raping for all they are worth is a good thing, because since we do not have the Marxist state you are speaking of, we really have little control over the powers weilded by wealth, except by our ability to riot once realization sets in.
We have a huge social state in the US. Oh we are certainly socialists... How? (This is a little bit tounge-in-cheek sarcasim here)
Largest two US Social Programs (uh, or only two that are bugetarily significant and come directly from taxes):
1. Free infrastructure (plus tax credit) provided by the state for anyone that wants to sell our resources on the basis that they "own" them via a real-estate deal or manifest destiny.
2. A huge war machine...the very industrial war complex that Eisenhower tried to make the public aware of: supported by our society.

Aside from these two huge "social programs", the two found in any Empire in history, we don't have much, but together they make for a far larger government than those who's social programs include things like social medicine.
Funny thing, consider my buddy Arthur Rodriguez: a DNC member, long retired lawyer...well you can't really describe him...just call him an aging exceptional indescribable person of great value. Really understands the difference between European states and the US. Experienced beyond belief. Has a pension of quite some value. It would have been worthless, with no medical benefit if a certain US company had bought it out. Instead, a German company bought it out. He now has great medical coverage, full pension and everything he ever worked for.

<freaking pitiful when you gotta go to a German for compassion>

You can't get that in the US. There is no culture or regulation preventing underhanded tricks from being used to screw people. In Europe, people go to jail for some schemes that are perfectly legal here. In Europe, you have tradition protecting you, while here you live in a pirate colony. Here, if you are a single father and you want to visit your son (but the mother doesn't like you) if you can affort to retain a lawyer full time you can constantly force the issue, otherwise you have no rights, because judgements really are not enforced unless you are poor and have done enough to go to jail by local laws because you are frustrated at the system, in which case you can join the other 2 million US third class citizens. You see, we say we are a democracy, provided we select one of the 2 choices bought for us to make by the monarchies (corporations) that actually rule us.



Best case for supporting replacement of coal with nuclear power:
  • U.S. release (from combustion of 111,716 million tons):
    Uranium: 145,230 tons (containing 1031 tons of uranium-235)
    Thorium: 357,491 tons
    Worldwide release (from combustion of 637,409 million tons):
    Uranium: 828,632 tons (containing 5883 tons of uranium-235) Thorium: 2,039,709 tons

    Annual deaths KNOWN to be caused by coal power (coal plant triggered asthema deaths) 3200 annual average in the US.

    Number of folks killed by Chernobyl as of 1995: 32

    Number of people killed INSIDE hydroelectric turbines or at the watergates in the year 1998 worldwide (I gotta do more checking into this, it seems crazy) Freaking 862!

    I know, meaningless statistics, but I was just showing that coal does it's share for the population control effort.
 

Woo482

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  • Number of people killed INSIDE hydroelectric turbines or at the watergates in the year 1998 worldwide (I gotta do more checking into this, it seems crazy) Freaking 862!
and I bet they wear suicides
 

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Well, that's my point: the term "market failure" is just used by anti-capitalists to apply to anything that results from people being economically free that they, personally, don't like. There is no market failure here -- the price is being set by classic increase in demand in the face of a steady supply that is now expected to decrease at some as yet-undetermined point in the future.

I do not think there is something called "anticapitalist".
USA and USSR had a currency. The only difference was that in one country most of tasks were assigned to companies, and in the other government took care. The difference was who did things and not the what or how things were done. Ideological fights usually focus on who should be doing things, instead of focusing on WHAT and HOW to do things. As a person who was raised after cold war, I find ideological debates very silly.

When you have a problem, you first think on what you must solve, how are you going to solve it, and at the very last you think who will do it. For people with strong ideologies the process is inverted.

What I think that happens here is a distorsion of markets caused by the war. Before the war there were rival factions in the middle so they had to compete with each other. War ended rivalry, so they can agree and this created an oligopoly, which is in essence like a monopoly.

Under conditions of lack of competition, elasticity of price is severely reduced, so prices go high as much as what the products or services are needed. Oligopolic regime creates a distorsion of markets, so the rest of economy subsidizes the inefficiencies of the oligopolic regime.

It is not market failure. It is market distorsion caused by the war. Unfortunately, current US administration did a great job uniting arabs by putting down the only opposing element, and giving arabs economical control of oil. So prices are likely to go up as long as there is no competition and political rivalry in the middle east.

They say production is meeting demand, so it means it is in the distribution process that you have a problem. If I recall correctly, about 6% of investments in USA were arab capitals. Oil companies are richer now, and americans are losing their jobs. It basically tells me that americans paid for the war and now are subsidizing them with oil prices. If I am wrong I'd like to know.

The problems I see with nuclear power:
I see another problem.
Water is used to cool down nuclear plants.
I recall that French had to turn off plants due to lack of water during one hot season.
Many nuclear plants demand more water, so you are likely to have water inflation too and energy shortages during hot season. Climate change may become a serious issue.

Well, I stopped calling myself an "environmentalist" years ago
Garbage is money.

If you throw organic waste, you are losing the chance to have compost for agriculture and you are producing greenhouse gases that could serve to produce electricity.

A perfectly green process not only is clean, but also it is efficient.
So "environmentalist" is the wrong term.

I would say that just as you like a "clean house", you may like a "clean river" or a "clean beach" to swim, a clean forest to enjoy nature, a clean air to breath...

Not clean means lack of health, breathing smog and increased heart attack risks, the chance of suffer wounds because of sharp garbage or being poisoned by polluting substances, etc...
You have right to be healthy. Just like the sewer in London was built to stop illness, having clean processes are a must to have an extension of that sewer.

Unless we humans might like to live like pigs, we better be clean.
So being clean is in my opinion a basic requirement of civilization.
 
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Urwumpe

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Number of people killed INSIDE hydroelectric turbines or at the watergates in the year 1998 worldwide (I gotta do more checking into this, it seems crazy) Freaking 862!

13 just died in Europe today in the tunnel for a new hydroelectric turbine, with the plant not being in operation. They just paddled as protest against the plant in the river, how I understand the background information, and except two boats, the group came too close to the inlet, capsized and drowned, with the boats coming out of the tunnel (without the turbine installed, if I understood it correctly) in small pieces.

They now search the corpses in the next country a few km downstream. only one guy out of the capsized boats survived, another managed to reach to the shore before dying.

If it wouldn't be for those poor fellows and possibly kids, who have to discover the remains of them, I would call it their own right to commit suicide according the rules of the Darwin award.

Just for the coincidence. The most harmless power source is actually ****. Of cows. Or Pigs. Can be used for producing electrical power with a complex power plant, but a few German villages managed to afford one such power plant for them, and now reduced their costs for electrical power a lot, as the costs for their own plant is lower as what they paid for electricity before and it is even lower as the price their former electrical company offered them for building and operating the bio gas plant for them.


PS: If you are single father in Germany, and want to see your kids, you should also know a good lawyer. While the law emphasizes that both father and mother are equally important, it is easier for the mother to find reasons declaring that you are either not caring enough for the children or even bad for them. It is really hard to break this mother bonus.
 

GregBurch

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I do not think there is something called "anticapitalist".
USA and USSR had a currency. The only difference was that in one country most of tasks were assigned to companies, and in the other government took care.

Gee ... what a tiny, little insignificant difference!

The difference was who did things and not the what or how things were done. Ideological fights usually focus on who should be doing things, instead of focusing on WHAT and HOW to do things. As a person who was raised after cold war, I find ideological debates very silly.

Ideology is just political philosophy without the philosophy. Ideology absolutely, positively did not end with the cold war. And to say that WHO does something has no effect on WHAT or HOW something is done is ... beyond my comprehension.

When you have a problem, you first think on what you must solve, how are you going to solve it, and at the very last you think who will do it. For people with strong ideologies the process is inverted.

What I think that happens here is a distorsion of markets caused by the war. Before the war there were rival factions in the middle so they had to compete with each other. War ended rivalry, so they can agree and this created an oligopoly, which is in essence like a monopoly.

Sometimes I get the impression, Pablo, that you are thinking of all these things in a vacuum, without knowing that these roads have been traveled before. Believe it or not, the above words could have come from an early 20th century Fabian. They sure did a great job when they got into power in England in the 1950s and 1960s. They wrecked the English economy.

Under conditions of lack of competition, elasticity of price is severely reduced, so prices go high as much as what the products or services are needed. Oligopolic regime creates a distorsion of markets, so the rest of economy subsidizes the inefficiencies of the oligopolic regime.

I don't know how many oil producing companies you think there should be, but APPARENTLY your point is that if there were more, the price would be lower. There isn't a shred of evidence for this. I could name a half dozen friends of mine who are excellent anti-trust lawyers who would love it if it were true, since the case would support them and their descendants into the fifth generation.

It is not market failure. It is market distorsion caused by the war. Unfortunately, current US administration did a great job uniting arabs by putting down the only opposing element, and giving arabs economical control of oil. So prices are likely to go up as long as there is no competition and political rivalry in the middle east.

Oh yes, Iran and Saudi Arabia are cooperating in keeping the price high. Huh? OPEC is less united politically and has less monopoly power now than it did in the 1970s. That's simply a fact.

They say production is meeting demand, so it means it is in the distribution process that you have a problem. If I recall correctly, about 6% of investments in USA were arab capitals. Oil companies are richer now, and americans are losing their jobs. It basically tells me that americans paid for the war and now are subsidizing them with oil prices. If I am wrong I'd like to know.

Ok -- you're wrong (and if you think your thinking on this subject isn't ideological, you are sadly mistaken). Production is BARELY, BARELY meeting demand -- NOW -- and demand is growing. That's the problem. There is no problem whatsoever with distribution. There is a close match of refining capacity to demand, but that's not the bottleneck. IT'S DEMAND.
 
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jedidia

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Oh yes, Iran and Saudi Arabia are cooperating in keeping the price high.
Iran is actually facing a severe problem: because of all the sanctions against them, they don't have the refineries and know-how to do anything else with their oil than sell it. On the other hand, Iranian people that drive a car are increasing (surprise, surprise...)

The amount of exported oil and imported fuel in Iran is allmost level... and it will take less than five years untill they are importing MORE fuel than they are able to export oil. So if Iran has any guilt in the current crisis, it's because they're driving cars. (the same guilt we have, actually...)

@Greg: of course I know that your statment was sarcastic, this is not directed to you, it's more like a general throw-in into the debate ;)
 

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The problem is that Greenpeace should have chosen to combat the retarded practice of lighiting up the earth with freaking light bulbs. There is almost no need for installed outside lighting at night. ZIP! That is an argument I can make pretty easily. It was never a real inconvenience to cities during WW2 to not have porchlights burning, and it IS a real inconvenience to have your neighbor flaming the place 24/7 with a laser light show. It's wasteful and assenine.
 

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The problem is that Greenpeace should have chosen to combat the retarded practice of lighiting up the earth with freaking light bulbs. There is almost no need for installed outside lighting at night. ZIP! That is an argument I can make pretty easily. It was never a real inconvenience to cities during WW2 to not have porchlights burning, and it IS a real inconvenience to have your neighbor flaming the place 24/7 with a laser light show. It's wasteful and assenine.

Ummm... Seeing as I got robbed in the past week, and that it could have been prevented had the street been better lit, I'll have to dispute that. Keep in mind that in WWII they had air-raid wardens patrolling the streets looking for lights that were on, which also helped with catching things like robberies.

Also, it's not fuel for electrical power that we're running out of. Coal is in fairly plentiful supply, nuclear fuels are not in such great supply by pound, but they have enough energy density to last a long time. Also, renewable energy sources tend to be geared towards generating electricity.

The problem is that alot of schemes that are good for generating electricity and transmitting it over power lines don't work so well with cars. Coal and uranium are both solids, among other problems, and the renewable sources tend to have low power to mass ratios, among other problems.

Hydrocarbon-burning internal combustion engines work *very* well for cars, but we are (or at least we seem to be) running out of oil (especially the cheap stuff), and that even if we aren't, the world political situation is causing oil prices to go up.

The two possible solutions are a): Make hydrocarbons a renewable resource, b): Find ways to operate transportation off of the electrical grid, which, for the moment, has plentiful fuel, and c): Find some other portable fuel that is in plentiful supply and works well with cars.

A) is where the biofuel movement is going. B) Indicates either electrical cars, hybrids, or electric trains. Europe and Japan are doing very well with trains, and given their population densities, might be able to make do with electric cars when cars are needed at all. (Many in Europe already make do with trains+feet). The US has a much lower population density, so cars are needed a bit more just because it's harder to walk places or build a comprehensive train network than it is in Europe. But even though we might not be able to do as much with trains as Europe, we certainly could do more than we're doing. Because of the longer distances involved, and the fact that electrical vehicles tend to be fairly short legged (Batteries tend to have poor energy density), the US would probably do better with a plug-in hybrid scheme than pure electric. Short trips can be made without ever starting the engine, but there's still is a gasoline engine in there for when you need a bit more range.
 

dbeachy1

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Even if we go with hydrogen we will still need a lot of energy from other sources to make that work. i.e., it makes significantly more energy to extract hydrogen (e.g., via electrolysis) than you get back from burning it with oxygen. Therefore, hydrogen might be a good choice for automobiles, but it won't work as a powerplant. And it would take a lot of power to create the amount of hydrogen we would need to run all our cars on it. Therefore, to use hydrogen we will need some widespread form of nuclear power as well. But the Green Left fights every single attempt to increase energy output.

As for biofuels, the trouble with most of them, beyond what Linguofreak mentioned about the low power-to-mass ratio, is that they drive up food prices: we can eat corn, but we can't eat oil or nuclear fuel. The exception to this is fuel like biodiesel made from used cooking oil, etc., but there isn't enough of that to make a dent in the world's energy needs.

I'm as much for conserving energy as the next guy, but politicians saying that "The solution is to 'use less energy'" are just crazy! As long as humans reproduce, the world's energy needs will increase simply because there are more humans living on the planet (of course, according to the Green Left, that is evil, too!) People have to go to work, so they have to have transportation. It takes energy to light/heat/cool a house. More people == more houses and jobs == more energy needed. Therefore, we as a species have to increase the amount of energy available on a global scale. So saying, "Just use less!" is not a solution unless we all want to go back to living in the 1700s. Yes, conservation and efficiency should be and will be part of a long-term solution, but we will also constantly need more energy just because there will always be more people using it.

I read the article that Greg posted about Thorium reactors and found it quite interesting. I have been following the energy debate for a while now, and I (like Urwumpe) had never even heard of Thorium reactors. It sounds like a very promising solution, as least in the mid-term. I'm amazed that I never heard of it before! Greg put it best:

GregBurch said:
It's not an accident. It's the result of the lobotomy that the Green Left has performed on our civilization over the last 40 years.

Well-said! From what I have read so far, a Throium reactor looks like a win-win all around. However, you can bet that the enviro-fascists will make up a reason to fight it.
 

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There is almost no need for installed outside lighting at night.

Well, I'd say big cities that don't get lit would have a severe increase of accidents and crime during the night time. The solution now might be to find something more efficient than light bulbs, but having cities without lights is not a good option IMO.

As for biofuels, the trouble with most of them, beyond what Linguofreak mentioned about the low power-to-mass ratio, is that they drive up food prices:

Bio-Fuel sure is among the most unethical thigs ever invented. I hear complaining in Switzerland about rising bread-prices, but the problem is we don't get the bulk of it. In the third world, Grain prices have more than DOUBLED since some farmers found out that they get more money for their stuff when they sell it for fuel rather than for food. Rich countries get preferable conditions, while in poor countries, where they barely managed to live, food prices rise much faster. We have a REAL problem on our hands with this, because it will continue untill bio-fuel gets either completely boycotted or forbidden by law in most countries.

Letting people starve just to apeace our environmental conciousness clearly is not the way to go...
 
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