Discussion SpaceX's Grasshopper RLV

T.Neo

SA 2010 Soccermaniac
Addon Developer
Joined
Jun 22, 2008
Messages
6,368
Reaction score
0
Points
0
Elon Musk believes as I do that making the launchers fully reusable can cut the costs to orbit by two orders of magnitude:

space-shuttle-discovery-launch-pad.jpg


Yeah, wouldn't reusability result in awesome cost savings?

(Ok, the thing had expendable components- but it was the reusable bit that made it more expensive than competing launch vehicles.)

I hope that SpaceX can succeed where STS failed. We shouldn't write off reusability just yet, there are a lot of solutions to this particular problem and the failed STS solution certainly isn't the only one.

Also: the interstage and fairing are not (as far as I know) reused... :shifty:
 

RGClark

Mathematician
Joined
Jan 27, 2010
Messages
1,635
Reaction score
1
Points
36
Location
Philadelphia
Website
exoscientist.blogspot.com
In the same manner, a propellant reserve dedicated to powered descent is dead mass on the way to orbit (assuming that the goal is to deliver a payload in orbit...)

This is not a big issue of what is considered "dead weight". You can call it dead weight if it does not help you get to orbit. But should you call it dead weight if it is required for you to accomplish your mission?
Were the heat shields on the Apollo capsules dead weight? Were the parachutes?


Bob Clark
 

N_Molson

Addon Developer
Addon Developer
Donator
Joined
Mar 5, 2010
Messages
9,286
Reaction score
3,255
Points
203
Location
Toulouse
Were the heat shields on the Apollo capsules dead weight? Were the parachutes?

Yes, from a physical point of view, they were : regardless of any context, the less empty mass, the more Delta-V. Pure theoric point of view.

From the engineering point of view, they were "required dead mass". Those devices were designed as a compromise between efficiency and functionality, and every effort was made to make them as light as possible. From there is the idea of "mass budget" : what can be spared on a component can be spent on another.

Now if you add economics and reusability constraints, it will clash with efficiency. There, studies and experiments have to be made to see which mass budget can be allowed to reusability, knowing that it will anyway compromise efficiency. And then calculate on a serie of launches if it is economically viable or not.
 

T.Neo

SA 2010 Soccermaniac
Addon Developer
Joined
Jun 22, 2008
Messages
6,368
Reaction score
0
Points
0
Efficiency isn't all about mass budgets and dV capability and stuff like that. If a more massive vehicle can achieve lower costs, higher reliability, or other features that improve its usefulness, then it can be truely better.

Landing gear on aircraft are also not needed at cruising altitude, over the ocean. There they are unecessary, inefficient mass. But they are required for the aircraft to be reused- to operate repeatedly, to do its job.

There may come a time, when lack of recovery equipment on a rocket stage, will be viewed in a similar manner to removing the landing gear of an airliner...
 

anemazoso

Addon Developer
Addon Developer
Joined
May 23, 2008
Messages
442
Reaction score
0
Points
0
Location
Las Vegas, NV
I love this idea and feel a little silly that one of us in the Orbiter community haven't published and add-on with this type of system because it really is a "head slapper" to me, so simple.

That being said I think Elon (and I am a self admitted fanboy) bit off more than he can chew this time. This system would be in the category "to-good-to-be-true." I think it can be done but not sure if Elon can do it with the budget he can spend on it.

Then again I said before on this forum that the Falcon Heavy would never really fly because "who wants to trust 27 engines" and I am probably closer to being wrong on that one at this point in time.

We shall see. Can't wait for Grasshopper to fly!

:cheers:
 

RGClark

Mathematician
Joined
Jan 27, 2010
Messages
1,635
Reaction score
1
Points
36
Location
Philadelphia
Website
exoscientist.blogspot.com
BTW, I think the payload lost in making the vehicle reusable is being overstated. Elon himself during the speech spoke ruefully of cutting into the 2%-3% payload fraction of launch vehicles. But actually a small percentage of the vehicle's dry weight, which is the important parameter not the gross weight, would need to go the reentry/landing systems.

The reason is this is for a multi-stage launcher, and a key fact is for the larger first stage any extra kilo added to the first stage dry weight subtracts only ca. 1/10th of a kilo from the payload.
And also for multi-stage launchers, the upper stage dry weight is usually rather small, in fact frequently smaller than the payload.
We can estimate the added weight for the Falcon 9. This page estimates the weights for this launcher:

Space Launch Report: SpaceX Falcon Data Sheet.
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/falcon9.html#components

The dry weight for the first stage is given as 19 mT, and 3 mT for the upper stage. These weights might even be overestimated. Some references for instance give the dry weight for the first stage as in the range of 15 mT.
Now estimate the mass of reentry/landing systems. First, Robert Zubrin gives an estimate of about 15% of the landed weight for reentry thermal protection:

Reusable launch system.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reusable_launch_system#Reentry_heat_shields

Secondly, an estimate of 10% is often cited for the wings for glided landing or for the fuel for powered landing:

Reusable launch system.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reusable_launch_system#Horizontal_takeoff

Finally the estimated weight for the landing gear is about 3%:

Landing gear weight.
http://yarchive.net/space/launchers/landing_gear_weight.html

This totals to 28%. However, it is important to keep in mind that with modern materials this can probably be reduced to half this.
So 14% of 19 mT on the first stage is 2,660 kg. But remember for a first stage this will only subtract about 1/10th this from the payload. So 270 kg lost.
For the second stage 14% of 3 mT is 420 kg. So the total is in the range of 700 kg lost from the Falcon 9 payload capacity to LEO of 10,000 kg.
But by doing this you are making the vehicle reusable and cutting costs by a factor of 100.


Bob Clark
 
Last edited:

T.Neo

SA 2010 Soccermaniac
Addon Developer
Joined
Jun 22, 2008
Messages
6,368
Reaction score
0
Points
0
Cutting into the 2-3% payload fraction is not in itself a bad thing. Cutting into the specific payload of a specific vehicle is a totally different thing.

Falcon 9 only has so much payload. It only has so much payload to the ISS and it only has so much payload to higher orbits (GTO, etc). In fact, it is a bit too small to hit the current GTO market sweet-spot (it has bad GTO/BEO performance for its size, due to its relatively low performance kerolox upper stage).

If you cut into the F9 payload capability, you hinder its ability to meet certain goals, and fulfill certain applications, that justify its existence. A 6000 kg-to-ISS capable F9 is pretty much useless.

To maintain the same payload capability at a lower payload fraction, you now need to enlarge the vehicle. And this starts to have so many knock on effects.

You can start by stretching the stages. You might get your original payload capability back, but now you lose the potential for future growth evolutions (if further tank stretches are not feasible).

You can upgrade the engines. Oops, Merlin engines are gas generator cycle and can't be upgraded beyond a certain performance level. You'll have to shift to staged combustion cycle. Oops, Merlin isn't staged combustion. New engine. Oops, now engine testing, construction and operation is more complex and costly. Oops.

You can widen the stage to incorperate more propellant. Oops, F9 tooling is set up for a particular stage diameter. Oops, you now possibly disrupt pad handling and vehicle integration.

The vehicle gross mass is now much higher. Oops, you might need to re-engineer the launch tower to carry the higher loads. Oops, maybe now you need another engine(s). Now it isn't even an F9 anymore- rather a 'Falcon 10'. More mass, more to go wrong, more engine construction and installation costs. New thrust structure.

The issue is that SpaceX may have designed their vehicle to do a particular thing in a particular way, and that by adding this reusability strategy they will either limit performance to a point where the vehicle does not provide a useful capability, or that they will have to perform impractical modifications to the vehicle to regain this capability.

The guys at SpaceX are smart. I'm sure their plan is pretty well thought out, but it's also pretty radical. And there is a large chance that radical things do not become successful. It pays to be skeptical, but it does not pay to dismiss things just for the sake of dismissing them.

Of course, it does not pay to approach real problems with unrealistic optimism and simplicity either.

However, it is important to keep in mind that with modern materials this can probably be reduced to half this

Since when!? Where did you read that!? Where did you get the "this can be halved" figure!?

But by doing this you are making the vehicle reusable and cutting costs by a factor of 100.

My brain does this when you say "cutting costs by a factor of 100":

02_02.jpg


How many times does it have to be stated that reusability is not a universal, holy panacea of cost-savings?
 
Last edited:

Urwumpe

Not funny anymore
Addon Developer
Donator
Joined
Feb 6, 2008
Messages
37,617
Reaction score
2,337
Points
203
Location
Wolfsburg
Preferred Pronouns
Sire
*RGClark-Mode* By using only 16 bits for the flight computer, we can cut costs by a factor of 100.
 

Thunder Chicken

Fine Threads since 2008
Donator
Joined
Mar 22, 2008
Messages
4,367
Reaction score
3,302
Points
138
Location
Massachusetts
SpaceX Reusable Launch System

I think Elon Musk is mad. :blink:

I think he's totally crazy...

Good for SpaceX if they pull this stuff off. I'll be watching closely.

The only way that could have been cooler/crazier is if the stages restacked themselves on the pad :lol:

Seriously, there is no harm trying to get the stages back. If it fails and you lose the stages, you just have to replace the stage. The Dragon is somewhat more critical, of course.

Thank goodness for completely-mad-yet-harmless visionaries with deep pockets!
 

T.Neo

SA 2010 Soccermaniac
Addon Developer
Joined
Jun 22, 2008
Messages
6,368
Reaction score
0
Points
0
Thank goodness for completely-mad-yet-harmless visionaries with deep pockets!

Elon Musk isn't harmless. If his otherwise awesome space launch/exploration venture fails, it'll be even more ammunition to the political pork-barrel, corporate welfare lobbyists who just love to insist how unreliable and unfeasible "commercial space" is.
 

Hlynkacg

Aspiring rocket scientist
Addon Developer
Tutorial Publisher
Donator
Joined
Dec 27, 2010
Messages
1,870
Reaction score
3
Points
0
Location
San Diego
How many times does it have to be stated that reusability is not a universal, holy panacea of cost-savings?

Nor is expendability. :p

---------- Post added at 11:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:27 PM ----------

I also think you've discounted the biggest near-term advantage to re-usablity, the ability to flight-test.
 

T.Neo

SA 2010 Soccermaniac
Addon Developer
Joined
Jun 22, 2008
Messages
6,368
Reaction score
0
Points
0
Nor is expendability. :p

Not at all, but people do not go around stating "this will reduce costs by a factor of 100" every single time the word "expendability" comes up.

Of course reusability can offer cost savings. But cost savings through reusability are not a given. Cost savings of two orders of magnitude even less so.

And as STS has shown us, reusability can actually create the opposite situation.

I agree with Urwumpe; if SpaceX achieves a 10%, or even a 5% saving, it is already a huge leap forward. If they can do that, then they would have created "profitable" reusability, that many people believe isn't possible at all.

And, paralleling your point about flight-testing, they would now through reusability not only have a platform to be able to refine the reusability process, but also to make note of technical aspects and events by being able to recover the hardware and get up close to it, which could lead to enhanced performance and reliability.

But still, I think Musk is mad. Not necessarily mad in the bad sense of the word.
 

Hlynkacg

Aspiring rocket scientist
Addon Developer
Tutorial Publisher
Donator
Joined
Dec 27, 2010
Messages
1,870
Reaction score
3
Points
0
Location
San Diego
Fair enough, but I am going to commit heresy here and assert that the Space Shuttle was not re-usable and therefore a poor basis for making any judgments/assumptions on the matter.

The chief driver of any project's cost is man-hours.

If your space craft needs to be torn apart and re-assembled after each flight you might as well make it expendable because for the amount of man-hours involved in refurbishing it could just as easily build a new one.

If on the other hand you're refurbishment process consists only of "load with propellant, attatch payload", a cost reduction of 50% becomes not just probable but conservative.
 

RGClark

Mathematician
Joined
Jan 27, 2010
Messages
1,635
Reaction score
1
Points
36
Location
Philadelphia
Website
exoscientist.blogspot.com
How many times does it have to be stated that reusability is not a universal, holy panacea of cost-savings?

Reusability is the only way spaceflight will ever become routine.


Bob Clark

---------- Post added at 02:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:15 AM ----------

*RGClark-Mode* By using only 16 bits for the flight computer, we can cut costs by a factor of 100.

No offense, but I think the SpaceX engineers have a pretty good idea how to cut the costs to space.


Bob Clark
 

Ark

New member
Joined
Jan 31, 2009
Messages
2,200
Reaction score
0
Points
0
If SpaceX can even break even on the reusability, that makes them better at it than NASA will ever be.
 

Sky Captain

New member
Joined
Jan 29, 2009
Messages
945
Reaction score
0
Points
0
Where are they going to land first stage? After seperating from second stage it has ~3,5 km/s velocity. Killing that velocity with rocket engines and then building up some velocity to return to Florida would take at least 4 km/s deltaV which clearly is not feasible. Landing site in Africa would limit orbit inclination that can be reached and first stage can't cross Atlantic without additional boost. Landing on a ship would require extreme precision although it seems to be the most feasible from deltav perspective.
 

RGClark

Mathematician
Joined
Jan 27, 2010
Messages
1,635
Reaction score
1
Points
36
Location
Philadelphia
Website
exoscientist.blogspot.com
Other possible methods to make the Falcon 9 reusable might be to use the "parashield" idea of the Dr. David Akin or the inflatable heat shield NASA is investigating. These might make the reusable Falcon 9 easier and quicker to implement since the usual cylindrical shaped stages could be used:

Phoenix: A Low-Cost Commercial Approach to the Crew Exploration
Vehicle.
http://www.nianet.org/rascal/forum2006/presentations/1010_umd_paper.pdf

"Figure 5.9-1: Phoenix ParaShield in stowed and deployed
configurations."
14e9vd4.jpg



Another advantage of the parashield is that it can also serve as a parachute once the vehicle has passed through reentry.

And for NASA's inflatable heat shield:

NASA Launches New Technology: An Inflatable Heat Shield.
UPDATE: 08.17.09
spaceIrve2_1.jpg

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/aeronautics/features/irve.html

See the video on this page describing the inflatable heat shield.


Bob Clark
 
Last edited:
Top