Discussion Will the SpaceX push to reusability make ArianeSpace obsolete?

RGClark

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Germany Agrees to Forgo Ariane 5 Upgrade in Favor of Next-generation Launcher.
By Peter B. de Selding | Nov. 17, 2014
http://www.spacenews.com/article/la...-ariane-5-upgrade-in-favor-of-next-generation

Germany has decided against developing the Ariane 5 ME. On the other hand France has decided to accept the preferred German format for the Ariane 6 of a liquid core rather than an all solid version.
This new version of the Ariane 6 will use a smaller version of the Ariane 5 core and either 2 or 4 solid strap-ons of smaller size than the current Ariane 5 solids.

If SpaceX succeeds with its reusability plans then this version might be made partially reusable by returning the core stage.

Another possible advantage of this version is that it opens up the possibility of shrinking the core stage further. If you make the core stage about half-size then it could be launched by a single Vulcain II. It could then launch a Cygnus-sized capsule as a manned SSTO. And using a cryogenic upper stage it could launch a Dragon-sized capsule as a manned TSTO.

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Ariane 6's a beast!

Lots of Ariane 6 pictures from the ESA gallery:

Artist_s_view_of_Ariane_5_ECA_and_the_two_configurations_of_Ariane_6.jpg


And they have video. :)

[ame="http://vimeo.com/113290058"]Animation Ariane 6 version A64 on Vimeo[/ame]

While I'm glad they sorted out the huge argument as to what the successor of Ariane 5 would look like, I'm a little shocked by this. I don't know how this will help them become "competitive" with SpaceX...:(

Thing's a :censored: monster, though.
 
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RGClark

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Actually, it's not an engineering question. It's an economics and politics question. The European Union has the greatest economic might in the world as measured by GDP, including that of the U.S. It's greater than that of the space faring nations of Russia, China, and India combined. Moreover, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK, individually have greater economic power than India. Yet Europe has no plans to produce a man-rated vehicle.

The currently accepted plan for the Ariane 6 is to cut down the size of the Ariane 5 core and spend funds on developing an upgraded version of the solid stages used on the Vega launcher to be used as side boosters. The ESA has agreed to spend $10 billion developing the Ariane 6 and upgrading the Vega to the Vega-C.

The half-size Ariane would have much smaller development cost since you would not need these new side boosters. Nor would you need the larger second stage using the Vinci engine. It would use the current cryogenic upper stage of the Ariane 5.

It would have a smaller payload than the Ariane 6 at about 4,800 kg for the two stage vehicle . But it would have about the same payload capacity of the upgraded Vega, the Vega-C. The Vega-C will have about 2 metric ton greater payload than the Vega, which will put it in the range of 4,500 kg.

The Vega already costs in the range of $50 million per launch. The cost of the Vega is in the range of $20,000 per kilo to orbit. The high cost probably deriving from its high development cost, in the range of $1 billion. The Vega-C needs an approx. 50% upgrade in size of the main solid stage, likely resulting in high additional development costs. Then judging by the approx. 50% upgrade in payload capacity, this would give it an estimated cost of $75 million.

In contrast, due to the low additional development needed for the half-size Ariane its cost would likely be comparable to other liquid fueled rockets in the range of $10,000 per kilo, or $48 million per launch.

Beyond that another very important advantage is that it could be made reusable if SpaceX succeeds in reusability. If SpaceX does succeed in cutting costs by reusability then the Vega and Vega-C immediately become obsolete. The half-size Ariane on the other hand would be able to keep pace with the price cuts by also being made reusable.

I mentioned the considerations on whether this could be undertaken were financial and political. The main financial reasons it should be undertaken are that it would have lower development cost than the Vega-C and would serve as a hedge against SpaceX succeeding in reusability.

Oddly, this might be the same reason why it might not be undertaken for political reasons, because it would undercut the Vega rocket, which is largely being built in Italy.

Bob Clark
 

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Actually, it's not an engineering question. It's an economics and politics question. The European Union has the greatest economic might in the world as measured by GDP, including that of the U.S. It's greater than that of the space faring nations of Russia, China, and India combined. Moreover, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK, individually have greater economic power than India. Yet Europe has no plans to produce a man-rated vehicle.

Yes - but you miss the very important question: Why should we? As long as there is no good answer to that question, an answer that everyone in every country of Europa can fully understand and support - it makes no sense for us to push the topic.

Also: What value has a manned spaceprogram for India? Its really just a plain publicity stunt, especially in the cold war with Pakistan and China - it will do nothing at all to improve the lives of the people in India. It is just a pet project for the ruling elite of the country.

The same with the ISS: As much as I love it personally and think it is worth every single dollar or Euro that it saved from being used for warfare or bailing out private financial institutions - scientifically the ISS is no success. Currently we are talking about mere 3,000 publications based on ISS research. Even a small unmanned probe generates around 10,000 publications during its mission. No wonder why the photographs of the astronauts from the ISS are attracting most of the attention.

Maybe it is strange that somebody like me, who is a staunch supporter of manned spaceflight, criticizes current manned space programs. But without some honesty, we will quickly have no manned spaceflight at all. And this honesty involves asking the question every day: What can we do better? Manned spaceflight has become so elitist, that its really hard to explain to the majority of the tax payers, that they also can have a meaningful profit from it.

In reality it currently only revolves on keeping obsolete organisations alive, which is really impossible to explain to the average tax payer why he should pay this. Instead of finding the organisation that acomplishes the next goals, what ever these goals are. For ESA, the organisation is around unmanned spaceflight with a tiny manned detachment. It works pretty well as you can see, but its hard to find any relation between the manned and the unmanned world there. Same for NASA. Aside of the Hubble Service Missions, there was little contact between unmanned and manned spaceflight since Apollo. Should we really pay this? Is that really the best that we can do?

For India, it is maybe really a nice feature to put an Indian into space. But what comes next? What came for the USA after landing on the moon? There is always one lonely further record, one dead-end branch more in the evolution of spaceflight. But where is the infrastructure, where is the paved road into space that makes it easier to get there for more than just a tiny elite? That is a question that even commercial spaceflight can't answer without admitting that it is just the same done by different organisations. Why must companies like SpaceX develop every crucial component of its rocket themselves? In the automobile industry, you would be quickly fired for such decisions - in spaceflight its some sort of a neccessity because all that tiny little infrastructure that makes cars affordable and useful does not exist.

So again: Why should we do it like you suggest and simply shoot some poor further evolved monkey into space on our own rockets in our own spacecraft, because we are the mighty European Union?

Come to me with a good solution to put 10,000 European workers into space every year without spending more than 100 times more than for the single monkey and we will have something that can be sold politically. Or get me some utilization concept for manned space missions, that allow every manned mission to generate more than 10,000 scientific publications in two years. Or find a way to have more than one good technology transfer to everyday Earthly use in 20 years of manned spaceflight.

These objectives are all closely related and are all yet the part that manned spaceflight never achieved yet. And which neither India nor SpaceX will ever solve by imitating NASA. And I don't want ESA to do this as well. You are right if you think that we can do much better. We can. We can even choose to not play the game at all, if the only way to win is to not play it.
 

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How far would this "disinterest" in manned spaceflight go? At some point other countries with space programs, to varying degrees, will also achieve manned spaceflight such as Japan, Korea, Brazil, etc. European scientists, engineers, and space advocates would be perfectly fine with all these other countries having manned spaceflight while Europe does not? They would be perfectly fine with all these other countries sending their own astronauts to space on their own launchers to their own space stations while Europe still has to pay the Russians exorbitantly marked up rates to send European astronauts to space?

BTW, Dietrich Woerner the head of the German space agency DLR has just been elected to head the ESA. Woerner was opposed to the solid rocket version of the Ariane 6 and supported the liquid-fueled core version that has now been adopted. One of the reasons given, among others, is that the solids do not move us forward technologically. Woerner is also a supporter of manned spaceflight. Hopefully, he will take a stance that leads Europe forward to an independent manned spaceflight capability.

Bob Clark
 

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How far would this "disinterest" in manned spaceflight go? At some point other countries with space programs, to varying degrees, will also achieve manned spaceflight such as Japan, Korea, Brazil, etc. European scientists, engineers, and space advocates would be perfectly fine with all these other countries having manned spaceflight while Europe does not? They would be perfectly fine with all these other countries sending their own astronauts to space on their own launchers to their own space stations while Europe still has to pay the Russians exorbitantly marked up rates to send European astronauts to space?

We can also afford to not let anybody send European astronauts into space. Why should there be one?

And as I said: Forget sending a man into space. Thats easy. Letting him do something useful than waving flags around is the harder problem.

I have no problem with Japan, India, Brazil or Russia spending their few financial resources for letting people wave with their flags in the void of space. Find a way to let humans do something purposeful there, and we can talk business. Otherwise, find your own country to do that.

BTW, Dietrich Woerner the head of the German space agency DLR has just been elected to head the ESA. Woerner was opposed to the solid rocket version of the Ariane 6 and supported the liquid-fueled core version that has now been adopted. One of the reasons given, among others, is that the solids do not move us forward technologically. Woerner is also a supporter of manned spaceflight. Hopefully, he will take a stance that leads Europe forward to an independent manned spaceflight capability.

Like the head of the DLR, the head of ESA is a mere executing position than a visionary one. The politicians always decide and if you follow the speeches of politicians here, you can easily see which way spaceflight will keep on going. More unmanned missions, much stronger focus on robotics.
 
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Beyond that another very important advantage is that it could be made reusable if SpaceX succeeds in reusability. If SpaceX does succeed in cutting costs by reusability then the Vega and Vega-C immediately become obsolete. The half-size Ariane on the other hand would be able to keep pace with the price cuts by also being made reusable.
What? How do you want to make Ariane 6 reusable while using solids? Okay, they are boosters, but it is still multimilion $ things that you just throw away.

It is all theoretical anyway. In resources (articles, press etc) about Ariane 6 there is no word whatsoever about reusability. Unless proven otherwise, I will assume Ariane 6 is fully expandable rocket - that will be already dead on arrival in 2021+.
 

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It is all theoretical anyway. In resources (articles, press etc) about Ariane 6 there is no word whatsoever about reusability. Unless proven otherwise, I will assume Ariane 6 is fully expandable rocket - that will be already dead on arrival in 2021+.

Where is your space program? :rofl:

Just some matter of fact: Contrary to the US space program, ESA has a much lower rate of cancelling projects early (I don't know many ESA projects since 1994 that shared that fate, Wikipedia lists five, but that list is far from complete... I would say around 9-10 projects have been cancelled since, out of hundreds)

Especially in terms of launchers - the Ariane 5 was build despite its primary payload (Hermes) being cancelled soon. It is more likely that a Ariane 6 will be made competitive at all costs (as contradictory as it sounds), than that the project will be cancelled - after all, the launch costs of the Ariane 5 in comparison to the Ariane 4 had also been discussed in 1992 already, but that did not stop the Ariane 5 to get over 50% market share.

And remember: SpaceX is still much more talking than doing. The next launch will show if they really make progress with reusing at least the first stage, but as you can already see by the quickly increasing effort, it is far from sure that reusing a first stage will really be cheaper than throwing it all away and SpaceX is still many launches away from even reusing a single first stage. The launcher that you see lift off is always just the small tip of the iceberg that is necessary for putting a payload into space.
 
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What? How do you want to make Ariane 6 reusable while using solids? Okay, they are boosters, but it is still multimilion $ things that you just throw away.
It is all theoretical anyway. In resources (articles, press etc) about Ariane 6 there is no word whatsoever about reusability. Unless proven otherwise, I will assume Ariane 6 is fully expandable rocket - that will be already dead on arrival in 2021+.

What I was advocating for is a completely separate launcher. It would be all liquid fueled. It would use a half-sized core stage compared to that of the Ariane 5 so that it could be launched by a single Vulcain 2 engine:

A Half-sized Ariane for Manned Spaceflight.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/11/a-half-size-ariane-for-manned.html

This all-liquid launcher would have the advantage that it could be made reusable. However, using only a half-sized core it would have lower payload capacity than the Ariane 6. It would be comparable though in payload capacity to that planned for the Vega-C which ESA is dedicated to spending billions in developing. The half-size Ariane (*) would have lower development cost and lower launch cost than the Vega-C.

ESA could still develop the full Ariane 6 that uses a nearly full-size core and strap on solid boosters. Note that the current version of the Ariane 6 because it has a liquid core could be made partially reusable.

Bob Clark

(*)What's a name for the half-sized Ariane? The Ariane 1/2? The Ariane H (for half)? The Ariane M (for moitié)? The Ariane D (for demi)?
 

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Where is your space program? :rofl:
What it have anything to do with topic? Do you think that only citizens from space-faring countries have right to post here or what? :rolleyes:

And remember: SpaceX is still much more talking than doing. The next launch will show if they really make progress with reusing at least the first stage, but as you can already see by the quickly increasing effort,
You can't in one sentence claim they do not much, if anything - and then in very next sentence say they do something (and say it in way suggesting it is bad thing). Ridiculous.

it is far from sure that reusing a first stage will really be cheaper than throwing it all away
Oh yes, economy, last refuge of naysayers.

and SpaceX is still many launches away from even reusing a single first stage.
I think everyone is aware about that.
 

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I guess this goes here...

Environmental Assessment for the Space Exploration Technologies Vertical Landing of the Falcon Vehicle and Construction at Launch Complex 13 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Florida

Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) has prepared this Environmental Assessment (EA) to
evaluate the potential environmental impacts resulting from activities associated with conducting vertical landings of
the Falcon first stage vehicle at Launch Complex (LC) 13 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), in Brevard
County, Florida. This EA also addresses related land clearing and construction of a main landing pad, contingency
pads, and supporting infrastructure modifications to the existing facility. In order to operate LC-13 as a landing facility
for its Falcon family of vehicles, SpaceX intends to work towards obtaining a 5-year real property license from the
United States Air Force (USAF) and receive a launch license from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of
Commercial Space Transportation, which would include the landing event.
 

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France wants to sell its stake in Arianespace to Airbus Safran:

French Divestment Will Put Arianespace in Airbus Safran’s Hands.
by Peter B. de Selding — June 10, 2015
http://spacenews.com/french-divestment-will-put-arianespace-in-airbus-safrans-hands/

This is good news for the commercial space approach to lowering costs. For instance, using solid rocket side boosters on the Ariane 6 helps to subsidize the French military's use of solid rocket missiles. Without the French government owning a part of the company, you are freer to choose the most cost-effective approach instead.

Replacing the solids with the liquid-fueled boosters that had been used on the Ariane 4 would eliminate the development costs of having to develop the new solids now planned for the Ariane 6. In addition to the much lowered development cost, you would have a rapid route to its development.

ESA is considering some versions of the reusability in returning the engine compartment of the core stage. However, by using liquid side boosters you can make the side boosters reusable as well by doing a vertical landing on those.

Moreover by using liquid fueled boosters you can get a manned vehicle by using 4 liquid-fueled boosters attached to the core stage, as both the Russians and the Chinese have done to produce their manned launchers. Because of the rapid development time Europe could probably field this manned launcher by the time the Americans field theirs, expected in 2017.

Bob Clark
 
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The failure of the Falcon 9 launch to resupply the ISS opens up another revenue source for an all-liquid version of the Ariane 6. All three of the current cargo launchers have experienced recent launch failures. Then another launcher to serve as a cargo supply vehicle would be useful. Because it would have a short development time and low development cost, this version could serve as valid alternative to the other launchers:

Ariane 5 Core plus 4 Ariane 4 side-boosters as a manned launcher.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2015/02/ariane-5-core-plus-4-ariane-4-side.html

Moreover, the Cygnus capsule, being European, could also be used as a low cost cargo capsule, rather than the expensive ATV.



Bob Clark
 

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Moreover, the Cygnus capsule, being European, could also be used as a low cost cargo capsule, rather than the expensive ATV.

Better stop citing your own wild fantasies. The Cygnus capsule is not European. Only a major primary structure of it is made by Thales Alenia.

Which is not that surprising since this company also produced the same structure for the MPLMs and the ATV.
 

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Better stop citing your own wild fantasies. The Cygnus capsule is not European. Only a major primary structure of it is made by Thales Alenia.
Which is not that surprising since this company also produced the same structure for the MPLMs and the ATV.

The capsule itself is produced by Thales Alenia. There is a separate propulsion system attached to the bottom. The situation is similar to the Orion capsule which is very well developed, even though its service module, which will provide propulsion, has not even been decided upon yet.

SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH OF THIRD CYGNUS SPACECRAFT TO INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION, WITH CARGO MODULE BY THALES ALENIA SPACE
July 15, 2014
cygnus_900_0.jpg

Cannes, July 13, 2014 – The third of nine Cygnus resupply vehicles for the International Space Station has been successfully launched from NASA's Wallops Flight Facility at Wallops Island, Virginia, by Orbital's Antares rocket. It carried a Pressurized Cargo Module (PCM) developed by Thales Alenia Space for Orbital Sciences Corporation, used to transport crew supplies, spare parts and scientific experiments to the International Space Station.
This was the second operational mission for NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program.
The Pressurized Cargo Module was shipped from Thales Alenia Space’s Turin plant in January to NASA's Wallops Flight Facility, where Orbital integrated it with the Service Module to form the Cygnus transport vehicle.
https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worl...cygnus-spacecraft-international-space-station

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The capsule itself is produced by Thales Alenia. There is a separate propulsion system attached to the bottom.

The "capsule itself" as you call it, is a fancier version of a metal tub. Its possibly even the cheapest part of the whole spacecraft. If you care for details, you can find out easily why this structure is cheaper to be produced in Italy than by OSC themselves. But that does not make the spacecraft European. It might be the biggest part of the spacecraft by volume, but its one of the cheapest by costs and mass.
 
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