2025: End of US Dominance

[ar81]

See

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/20/barack-obama-president-intelligence-agency

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7741049.stm

The bright side is that as US becomes unimportant, americans will be safer. Who would care about attacking another brick on the wall.

When I suggested this would happen, just a few months ago in another forum, I was flamed as if I was bashing US.

When I suggested that US would become third world it also caused some reactions. In several forums americans thought their country was immune to deficit. But people ignored that I said that because I know what it is to have deficit indicators in my country, and I know what it is to have a refrigerator for more than 20 years, and having an ordinary wrist watch for several years.

Friends of mine are telling me how things are in US. As I see it, those companies which do not get rid of inventories on Xmas will be crushed by crisis.

In my country it is called "la cuesta de enero" (january uphill) since a lot of years ago.

What you could expect is dollar to fall until chinese and american workers cost about the same. Government will have to cut military until it has surplus to pay foreign debt. Basically it would mean 10 years of sacrifice, of tightening the belt, and living like a third world country. I have lived that, I know what it is. So I am not bashing, I am sharing my experience. Knowing how hard things are in US makes me feel sad...

Perhaps the good thing is that antiUS people will have to look for another political scapegoat. Who will be the next "source of imperialism"? It will be up to creative ideologists...

 

[willy88]

Who will be the next "source of imperialism"? It will be up to creative ideologists...

Another acronym, probably.

 

[Eagle]

Its certainly possible that the US may not stay as a superpower. It depends if other nations decide to step up their influence and intervention and we reduce ours. If we draw down our military to European standards and focus only on regional power (lots of resistance in military circles to this as it goes against the principles of war) it may happen. Wouldn't bet on it though.

Probably very unrealistic that the US will be anything but a 1st world country in the near future. Our government is very stable and we have excellent infrastructure. Maybe unemployment may go a bit higher and good more expensive, but certainly not bad by global standards.

 

[Saturn V]

Never mind.

 

[ar81]

Its certainly possible that the US may not stay as a superpower. It depends if other nations decide to step up their influence and intervention and we reduce ours. If we draw down our military to European standards and focus only on regional power (lots of resistance in military circles to this as it goes against the principles of war) it may happen. Wouldn't bet on it though.

Probably very unrealistic that the US will be anything but a 1st world country in the near future. Our government is very stable and we have excellent infrastructure. Maybe unemployment may go a bit higher and good more expensive, but certainly not bad by global standards.

Power costs money. Itis not cheap.

Trade deficit makes currency to leak out, and huge debt creates the need to pay. There is no way to spend on military and geopolitics, unless you sacrifice education, infrastructure and health. having excellent infrastructure now is not a guarantee of having it in the future. It is a matter of resource allocation.

US had a model of distribution of wealth based on employment. US government is not creating incubators of companies, and if it did, it would take at least 2 years to have preliminary results.

With high deficit and contraction of markets it is hard for a government to keep affording geopolitical games.

Current indicators and current stories of americans tell me that in the next decade many young americans will complain about the lack of opportunities, and how hard it is to afford a normal life. It is sad, because 13 years ago same story took place here.

In 1995 it was a dark Xmas for commerce.

You mention that "Our government is very stable". But with a poor economy, stability will be political only, not economical.

Next year promises to be "january uphill", so it would be good if you could save some money.

And the problem is that low interest rates are refinancing US future. When refinancing ends, you will see the true state of economy. It is having a bubble right now.

 

[cjp]

China, India, Russia and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multi-polar international system.

In that order.

Some years ago I saw an analysis that actually put the EU on top for a limited amount of time, after the decline of the US, and before China took full control. Growth of the EU is mostly thanks to its increase of territory and the economic growth of the new member states.

I also think it's unlikely the US will become a third world country, although you never know of course.

Posting the video below is completely unfair of course, but it makes you think how long such people will be able to run the world's most powerful nation:

 

[Donamy]

And 99% of them voted for Obama. Some more than once.

 

[Moonwalker]

I think that the USA is going to lose its current position on the world ranking list in future. The world and its economy is changing much more rapidly than ever before. We have big countries which are going to awake (China, India) and Europe also is something of importance.

On the other hand, the USA gets underestimated in a way. The current crisis is not the first commercial crisis for the USA. The USA is a rather vital country, which doesn't need an alarm clock to wake up fast again.

The future becomes rather interesting. In my point of view the globalization is much more positive rather than negative.

 

[BHawthorne]

The US needs to take the same tact foreign contries are doing. The US government needs to pour cash into making domestic high tech manufacturing plausiable. Foreign governments are doing it all the time. Look at EU with Airbus and South Korea with semiconductors. Corporate cash can't compete on the level governments can to invest into manufacturing infastructures. The manufacturing infastructure in the US is at 1950's levels. With the weakened Dollar and fluxuating fuel prices US manufacturing businesses are waking up to the fact it's no longer as smart a thing to offshore outsouce anymore. US needs to get it's head screwed on right again or the trade deficit is going to be it's downfall. An insteresting aspect of the weakened Dollar is that foreign companies are now finding it cheaper to build plants in the US instead of import things in.

 

[n72.75]

I hate Life

 

[MajorTom]

USA was not always a dominant nation...wasn't until end of WWI, which was well into the 20th century. And it probably won't always be in the future.

David Brin's novel "Earth" provides a vision of a near future world with ahem global warning issues and a no-longer dominant USA.

(Brin said it was tough writing a novel of the near future...50 years ahead of now...because such a setting had to be close enough for things to be recognizable to today's readers but a realistic guess at important future changes. So of course he chose climate change, shifting international politics, and of course some really interesting new technologies.)

 

[ar81]

Indeed, we are globalized.
What happens to US affects us (less exports).
And world poverty affects US (jobs go overseas because poor people are cheaper elsewhere).

Nowadays, US dollar needs to go down until american and chinese workers are equally expensive. Else, US will suffer worst liquidity problems than it has today. Ont top of that, foreign debt (used to fund war) must be paid, so it means some govt expense will be cut.

The problem of today's deficitary economy is that citizens subsidize all deficits of government, trade deficit, banks and company profits. If debt and trade deficit are not solved, US youths will be the victims of economy. They will not be able to afford or plan their lives. So it is a must to act now.

Unfortunately republican government is not acting to solve the problem. It is procrastinating, refinancing deficit, inflating a bubble that needs to pop.

Defining US as third world country is a very subjective definition. But certainly in the short term, US citizens seem to face the problems we have had in third world countries. It would be a bad taste joke if you see US spending money in geopolitical games, while US citizens are having a bad day, without jobs, earning less, and seeing a model of distribution of wealth based on employment being collapsed, with a government that is all but economically protectionist towards its citizens.

 

[Ghostrider]

See

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/20/barack-obama-president-intelligence-agency

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7741049.stm

I've been reading this kind of stuff since the '70s. Guess what, it didn't happen. Just because the BBC produces Doctor Who, it doesn't mean they can predict the future better than my 8-ball. Better that way, or we'd be overrun with Daleks by now. :lol:

Those US intel agencies are the same ones who couldn't see the Berlin Wall crumbling back in the 20th Century and didn't see Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait. Their predictions are to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Ceres - especially the stuff they leak.

When I suggested this would happen, just a few months ago in another forum, I was flamed as if I was bashing US.

So, because you happen to share some views with those guys, we should now de-flame you? :lol:

When I suggested that US would become third world it also caused some reactions. In several forums americans thought their country was immune to deficit. But people ignored that I said that because I know what it is to have deficit indicators in my country, and I know what it is to have a refrigerator for more than 20 years, and having an ordinary wrist watch for several years.

I've had a refrigerator for more than 25 years: it happened to be a very solid one. As for wristwatches, some of the ones I used as a teenager are still in working order. Being wasteful is not an indicator of wealth.

 

[ar81]

I would like to be wrong.
I would like to think that world crisis is just a show that the media and politicians invented to give some thrill to the public.
I would like to think that americans and the rest of humans from my nation called Earth will be fine.

To me, what is certain is that the new administration need to take some tough and painful steps and for some time the worst is still yet to come to economy. It will need to compensate 8 years of poor management of the country.

 

[David413]

To me, what is certain is that the new administration need to take some tough and painful steps and for some time the worst is still yet to come to economy. It will need to compensate 8 years of poor management of the country.

2680+ days without another terrorist attack on our home soil. Whatever other faults the present administration has had, and the mistakes it has made (and there have been many), I thank the administration for that.

It is always interesting to me to watch individuals that have no real stake in the politics of my country share their opinion. And I take it as that: opinion. You are as entitled to yours as the next person, but you are not entitled to your own facts.

 

[Arrowstar]

The video was depressing. Good lord, how hard were those questions? I nailed every one without a second thought. Seriously, I am so ashamed of my fellow countrymen sometimes...

 

[Donamy]

Unfortunatly kids today are not taught to excell, because winning doesn't matter. No need to better themselves, they're fine just the way they are, and it's a beautifil day in the neighborhood (thankyou Mr. Rogers).

 

[MajorTom]

The video was depressing. Good lord, how hard were those questions? I nailed every one without a second thought. Seriously, I am so ashamed of my fellow countrymen sometimes...

I didn't see the video, but isn't it easy to edit out the "right" answers and just show what appears to be dunces? One coud show anything he wants in a video...

Edit: Just watched it. Yes, they were dunces, but the same morons appeared multiple times.

 

[Missioncmdr]

The video was depressing. Good lord, how hard were those questions? I nailed every one without a second thought. Seriously, I am so ashamed of my fellow countrymen sometimes...

Of course it was edited that way. Why would it not be? Besides, it is not like there are similar videos out there.

(Not trying to offend anyone, but people who think that the United States is the only country with unintelligence are just plain wrong. It really is only a stereotype.)

 

[Spicer]

The U.S.'s economy is in a decline now, but so is the entire world's economy. We all were over-confident about our ability to pay for things we really couldn't buy. The credit market is really catching up to 10 years of abuse.

The shame is that the only "real" way for the US to stabilize economically is to allow our economy to go into a deep recession or a depression. Within a few weeks we will be in a state of deflation, if we are not all ready. The price of gas, which has been artifically inflated for about 5 years is coming down to what is should really cost. Therefore, the costs for everything in our country should start coming down.

The U.S. economy will stabilize in time. During that time we will remain a great power in the world. The man elected president has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with the recovery. Please remember that.