News COVID-19 pandemic

Artlav · Mar 16, 2020

Are all the COVID cases getting sent to a few hospitals, or spread evenly across all of them?

Linguofreak · Mar 16, 2020

Urwumpe said:
My English training at work also got cancelled. I waited months for it, because I wanted to take the chance to work on my horrible pronounciation when speaking English. Had one great first training last week, but now its cancelled for a while. I have a C2 level certificate, but I really don't sound like it when speaking English.

A lot of the trouble people have with learning accents is that there are social taboos on mimicking people too exactly, when you mimick the voice of someone who speaks the same language it can come across as mockery. Learning a foreign accent uses the same brain circuitry as making fun of a strange same-language accent.

So to start out with, think of how the most arrogant and offensive American tourists sound when reading broken German out of a phrasebook. Imagine you're speaking to one, and ridicule his German roundly, especially his outrageous accent (but please don't do this with actual American tourists!). Then, listen to some speeches by the American politician you like second-least (*see footnote), and mock his accent in the same way (but this time you're mocking his accent while he's speaking English, not German). Then, once you've gotten the taboo out of your system, take an American you respect and pretend you're trying to mock them so that your friends will notice, but they won't: no overt insults, but you want to engage the same accent-mimicking brain circuitry as if you were actually making fun of them.

If you want a British accent, replace "American" with "Englishman" above. A Canadian accent will generally pass as fairly unmarked American, with a few quirks. The East coast and the South (Texas and everything to the east of it, roughly) tend to have more noticeable accents, though you'll generally do well if your accent model is from a suburban background as that portion of the population gets fairly well mixed. Both rural and central-urban accents tend to stand out, whether the group that has the accent is rich (e.g, for urban accents, JFK, from the old Boston elite) or poor (various inner-city minorities). I can't really give good advice on what accents you'd want to pick for a British accent model.

Of course, if you have any face-to-face or live-audio contact with English speakers, you should take full advantage of that, even if their accent is one that native-speakers would tend to notice. (Going the other way, I've had my German-speaking accent described as "crazy Schwäbisch". Not the model of diction, as I understand it, but at least I pass for German!).

*I say second-least, because I'm pretty sure of who you're likely to like least, and you probably don't want his accent.

GLS · Mar 16, 2020

Artlav said:
Are all the COVID cases getting sent to a few hospitals, or spread evenly across all of them?

In Portugal some hospitals were assigned to this, so infected people are sent to them... but even there things aren't really working well as "regular" pacients and staff are now testing positive to COVID-19... :facepalm:

4throck · Mar 16, 2020

GLS said:
"regular" patients and staff are now testing positive to COVID-19... :facepalm:

Yes. This is the general disruption I'm talking about.
Even if they turn out negative or not serious cases, testing and isolation overwhelms the health system.

Urwumpe · Mar 16, 2020

Artlav said:
Are all the COVID cases getting sent to a few hospitals, or spread evenly across all of them?

Evenly, we are a federal state. We have only 2700 beds for intensive care patients in whole Germany, some states are closer to the edge than others now.

4throck · Mar 16, 2020

Border controls restored between Portugal and Spain.
Goods and work related movement is allowed, all other traffic is forbidden.

I find this thread more informative than most other places. Good info and balanced opinions! Let's keep it up :thumbup:

Zatnikitelman · Mar 16, 2020

Ok, I'm going to be blunt, I trust neither the cdc nor the who over this insanity. Why? Their data doesn't add up.
Fact: For most people it manifests as a bad cold and nothing more
Fact: In many people there may be no symptoms period
Fact: We're told this is serious because it has a much higher mortality rate than the flu
Fact: The vast majority of deaths are people with compromised immune systems that would likely succumb to the flu or a bad cold anyways

So, given the above...the data has to be horribly skewed. Why? For people in the first two groups, why would anyone be tested? If I get a cold, even a bad one, I sure don't run to the doctor, nor does anyone I know. So this right here (third point) would drive the mortality rate down substantially if the rate really is just the deaths divided by infections. Then the common refrain I'm hearing is "not enough people being tested." Well who do you test? Anyone that coughs once? Anyone with a fever? Which goes back to the first two points.

To the fourth point, someone who dies from corona (more accurately complications due to corona) is just as dead if they did from a cold or the flu. My own dad is one of these people at greatest risk, he's had pneumonia since April and has been on oxygen ever since on top of diabetes, high blood pressure, sarcoidosis, overweight, and probably something I'm forgetting. If he dies, does it really matter to us what he dies of? He's just as dead and gone. So far I haven't seen anything to suggest that corona is particularly worse for these people than contracting the flu is. If he caught either one, with the state he's in, he's probably done.

If this were ebola, I could understand as every manifestation of the disease is horrifying, but...this isn't the case with corona. If I catch it, I might sneeze, if my dad catches it, he probably dies, just like if he caught the flu. So what exactly am I missing???

jedidia · Mar 16, 2020

The major difference is that there are vaccines against the flu, but not against covid-19. Meaning the only thing we can do currently to protect the risk-groups is to contain the spread, while in case of the flu there are more options available to protect persons at risk individually.

Sbb1413 · Mar 16, 2020

Weirdest superstition ever!

Due to fear of coronavirus, people of India start to use pee and/or poo of cow to prevent this! Once upon a time, there was a superstition on India that pee and/or poo of cow cures people from any disease.

Graduated people of India, like me, have concerns about whether we are going forwards or backwards through generation. :facepalm:

Thorsten · Mar 16, 2020

So, given the above...the data has to be horribly skewed. Why? For people in the first two groups, why would anyone be tested?

Well, look at South Korea - they're testing I think on the order of 12.000 people a day (not sure based on what criteria, but they're trying hard to get a good picture of who is infected). So they have by far the best data.

The mortality rate you can estimate from their data is < 0.7 (or so - dependent on how many infections you believe they still miss).

If it is around 0.5, it would be on par with a severe influenza strain (not the one of this year, that is harmless).

The difference is the speed at which it spreads - with an uncontained influenza, every sick person infects about 1.1 people, with Corona the number seems to be 2-3 if unchecked.

So the timing at which people get sick is rather different, and while this makes no theoretical difference in mortality, in practice it does because a hospital may simply be full and unable to treat more patients. In which case the mortality rate will be (much) higher.

Which means the song and dance of quarantine etc. is done to prevent that scenario and keep the influx of sick people which need treatment on the level of a flu epidemic.

But yes, the data (especially in the form it is presented by most news media) is horribly skewed, and you need to do some numbers yourself (or dig for the right sources).

Fabri91 · Mar 16, 2020

Zatnikitelman said:
Ok, I'm going to be blunt, I trust neither the cdc nor the who over this insanity. Why? Their data doesn't add up.
Fact: For most people it manifests as a bad cold and nothing more
Fact: In many people there may be no symptoms period
Fact: We're told this is serious because it has a much higher mortality rate than the flu
Fact: The vast majority of deaths are people with compromised immune systems that would likely succumb to the flu or a bad cold anyways

So, given the above...the data has to be horribly skewed. Why? For people in the first two groups, why would anyone be tested? If I get a cold, even a bad one, I sure don't run to the doctor, nor does anyone I know. So this right here (third point) would drive the mortality rate down substantially if the rate really is just the deaths divided by infections. Then the common refrain I'm hearing is "not enough people being tested." Well who do you test? Anyone that coughs once? Anyone with a fever? Which goes back to the first two points.

To the fourth point, someone who dies from corona (more accurately complications due to corona) is just as dead if they did from a cold or the flu. My own dad is one of these people at greatest risk, he's had pneumonia since April and has been on oxygen ever since on top of diabetes, high blood pressure, sarcoidosis, overweight, and probably something I'm forgetting. If he dies, does it really matter to us what he dies of? He's just as dead and gone. So far I haven't seen anything to suggest that corona is particularly worse for these people than contracting the flu is. If he caught either one, with the state he's in, he's probably done.

If this were ebola, I could understand as every manifestation of the disease is horrifying, but...this isn't the case with corona. If I catch it, I might sneeze, if my dad catches it, he probably dies, just like if he caught the flu. So what exactly am I missing???

Even if it were "just another flu", that would be a massive problem. Additionally, it seems to cause very significat symptoms in many more people than would otherwise be afflicted by a flu: it's not like people are being commited to hospitals, saturating all ER capability for no good reason because they've got nothing better to do.

dbeachy1 · Mar 16, 2020

Zatnikitelman said:
Ok, I'm going to be blunt, I trust neither the cdc nor the who over this insanity. Why? Their data doesn't add up.

Do you honestly believe that your gut instinct is more accurate than the thousands of medical professionals and infectious disease experts all over the world, and that the entire world is exaggerating the death statistics and danger of COVID-19 just for news ratings? Most hosts on Fox News are still pushing that narrative. But governments all over the world do not shut down the entire planet without overwhelming concern from medical experts. There are a myriad of sources with this data, including this on Forbes:

Sometimes it's easier to see the difference in fatality rates visually rather than just numbers. HANNAH RITCHIE AND MAX ROSER, OUR WORLD IN DATA

In China, the fatality rate for adults over 80 was about 15-18%, roughly one in six. Even people in their 50s were three times more likely to die than those in their 40s in China. By comparison, the annual seasonal flu killed about 0.8% of all US adults over 65 who got it in 2018-2019.

bar graph showing fatality rates of COVID-19 in China

Deaths from COVID-19 sharply increase above age 50. OUR WORLD IN DATA

In Italy, three out of five patients with COVID-19 who died were over age 80, according to the Wall Street Journal’s figures from Italy’s disease control agency. Another 1 in 3 were in their 70s.

Even in South Korea, which has very effectively managed the disease, the death rates are sobering. Among adults over age 80, the rate of death was 7.2%, so 7 of every 100 people with COVID-19 died. About 1 in 25 adults in their 70s with the disease died. The overall fatality rate in South Korea is 0.77%, but only one person in their 30s and one person in their 40s died. More than 99% of the deaths were people age 60 and older.

The stark statistics we have so far are cold, hard facts. They are not "exaggerated", despite Fox News continuing to downplay the risk of COVID-19. This is not (well, should not be) a political issue: seniors are dying at a rate that is at least six times higher than "just the flu", and yet Fox News not only does not report the actual statistics, they actively report the opposite: that COVID-19 is "no worse than the normal flu".

To buy into the Fox News narrative, you would have to believe that governments around the entire planet are shutting down schools and businesses and restricting travel "just for hype", but yet it appears that a substantial number of Fox News viewers do believe that. From my perspective, that conspiracy theory is not only patently absurd, it is unethical and dangerous: it is putting other people, particularly seniors, at risk of serious complications or even death from COVID-19 as those people ignore state and local government warnings to limit contact with other people.

Personal story: my own parents, both avid Fox News viewers in their 70s, believe that COVID-19 is "no worse than the normal flu" and "there is a new flu strain every year, and it's always fine" and "the mainstream media is pushing it just to get ratings" and that "It is under control, did you see the press conference about it?" I've pleaded with them to skip going to their church for a few weeks and showed them the statistics above and the video interview I posted earlier in this thread, but it made no difference: they still went to their church yesterday (which has ~300 members) and even went out to eat afterwards (!!). I feel helpless to educate them. So the disinformation that Fox News is pushing is putting my parents and millions of other seniors in danger, and that is immoral. This is about people's health and lives. Real people.

fred18 · Mar 16, 2020

Zatnikitelman said:
Ok, I'm going to be blunt, I trust neither the cdc nor the who over this insanity. Why? Their data doesn't add up.
Fact: For most people it manifests as a bad cold and nothing more
Fact: In many people there may be no symptoms period
Fact: We're told this is serious because it has a much higher mortality rate than the flu
Fact: The vast majority of deaths are people with compromised immune systems that would likely succumb to the flu or a bad cold anyways

So, given the above...the data has to be horribly skewed. Why? For people in the first two groups, why would anyone be tested? If I get a cold, even a bad one, I sure don't run to the doctor, nor does anyone I know. So this right here (third point) would drive the mortality rate down substantially if the rate really is just the deaths divided by infections. Then the common refrain I'm hearing is "not enough people being tested." Well who do you test? Anyone that coughs once? Anyone with a fever? Which goes back to the first two points.

To the fourth point, someone who dies from corona (more accurately complications due to corona) is just as dead if they did from a cold or the flu. My own dad is one of these people at greatest risk, he's had pneumonia since April and has been on oxygen ever since on top of diabetes, high blood pressure, sarcoidosis, overweight, and probably something I'm forgetting. If he dies, does it really matter to us what he dies of? He's just as dead and gone. So far I haven't seen anything to suggest that corona is particularly worse for these people than contracting the flu is. If he caught either one, with the state he's in, he's probably done.

If this were ebola, I could understand as every manifestation of the disease is horrifying, but...this isn't the case with corona. If I catch it, I might sneeze, if my dad catches it, he probably dies, just like if he caught the flu. So what exactly am I missing???

if you look at death rate you might seem to be right, and everybody is doing this mistake. Let me tell you what the real point is please.

The big issue of Covid is that about 10% of the infected needs to get treated in hospital's intensive cares not to die. I have the father of a dear friend there, he's alive only beacuse he is intensive care. BUT the capability of the health system of every nation has a limited number of places in intensive care. So if you don't try to stop this you will end up with a number of people dying because there is no more beds in the hospitals. That is why they built an hospital in china and that is why they are finishing another one like they did in china also here in Milan.
If you don't believe this hear this: there is a city nearby milan which is called Bergamo. For some reason mass media are trying to keep a low profile on it (some say that it is because it is one of the most industrialized areas of the country and if workers go mad it will become an economical issue too big to deal with). But the situation is so an issue that everybody basically are getting infected. Yesterday a guy who was working on ambulances died at age 47. 2 kids at home, no other health issues. He got the virus while working with infected.
A couple of married old people (around 80 yrs old) last week died because they had to stay at home with high fever because there was no room available in bergamo's hospital. No health issues at all before getting the covid. When they finally got a bed in intensive care it was too late.

this is bergamo yesterday
[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFy9j1vtJ-4"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFy9j1vtJ-4[/ame]

In sardinia yesterday a 42 years old guy died due to Covid. No health issues before.

are you still so sure it is "just a flu" ?

dbeachy1 · Mar 16, 2020

From the CDC (the United States Center for Disease Control) yesterday:

CDC recommends canceling all events of 50 people or more until early May

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Sunday that people throughout the U.S. should avoid events of 50 people or more for the next eight weeks.

The announcement comes as some major cities have already banned large events and ordered bars and restaurants to close.

The CDC said in its release that it "recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States."

News COVID-19 pandemic

What will happen after the Corona epidemic?

The population of Asia will be reduced, accelerating the sustainable development.

The major civilizations will collapse.

The human race will end.

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