News COVID-19 pandemic

[4throck]

That's what happens when isolation is voluntary, with no penalties or rules....
The police can order you to return home and you must comply, but other than that nothing really changed.

From what I see the police has been called and now that area is closed.

Pointless, since the harm is already done.

 

[Urwumpe]

I take back what I said about my fellow citizens.

Too many idiots around. Including one who tried to argue about it just being a conspiracy theory. Sadly he is one of my neighbours, so directly punching him was no option. But at least he respected my 1.5m distance, contrary to many others who came out after I was already on the return leg. I already had to walk off the forest road and into the woods to keep distance, because two seniors needed the whole 3m wide road for walking and talking.

Good thing, still about 2/3 of the people around cared. Families quickly went back into line formation when passing somebody else, most kept the distance.

Sadly, there are far too many around who gamble with the lives of others. I hope the new rules that any assembly of more than 2 people will be dissolved, will get enforced. Would at least kick out the worst self isolation offenders today.

No, a german family is not mother, father, daughters, sons, grandmother, grandfather, uncle, cousins, neighbor and close friend of the father. I never felt a bigger urge to stay away from humans than this huge group making picknick on a group of benches. And, no, contrary to what the prejudice might suggest - this had been natives.

But having an italian dude swaying all along the road while watching his smartphone and showing his girlfriend the latest bad news from italy is not making it much better.

---------- Post added at 18:52 ---------- Previous post was at 17:24 ----------

OK, now our chancellor Angela Merkel is in quarantine, because one of her doctors was tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

---------- Post added at 19:28 ---------- Previous post was at 18:52 ----------

I think the comparison to SARS is interesting... the SARS pandemic only infected about 9000 people and caused almost 1000 deaths, but has many traits in common with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

One important difference is where the virus reproduces in the human body and that there are many hosts that are not showing any symptoms. Without proper testing, we will likely never get the pandemic stopped, like we achieved with SARS.

 

[insanity]

I think the comparison to SARS is interesting... the SARS pandemic only infected about 9000 people and caused almost 1000 deaths, but has many traits in common with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

One important difference is where the virus reproduces in the human body and that there are many hosts that are not showing any symptoms. Without proper testing, we will likely never get the pandemic stopped, like we achieved with SARS.

This is the most frustrating part of the whole ordeal. We don't know how near we are to ending it until we know how many people have been infected and fended the virus off asymptomatically. Our best-guess of the portion of the population that is infected could be off by an order of 300 according to one epidemiologist. The only way this ends is if we test everyone or we develop a vaccine or an effective treatment.

 

[Notebook]

Germany orders people not to meet in groups bigger than two outside work and home

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51999080

I think we'll end up there after this week-end.

 

[jedidia]

Would I ever meet such a dude here, you can be absolutely sure that my fist will accelerate into his face.

Just remember to disinfect your hand afterwards... :shifty:

 

[Urwumpe]

Just remember to disinfect your hand afterwards... :shifty:

Of course. You should never touch your face before you did so, and you sure should not do so before you touch the face of somebody else...

 

[gattispilot]

Dallas County, Texas is shelter in place til April 3.

 

[richfororbit]

Not quite on the list of priorities, but this has slowed NASA's Artemis program, for the first mission.:blink:

 

[Linguofreak]

This is the most frustrating part of the whole ordeal. We don't know how near we are to ending it until we know how many people have been infected and fended the virus off asymptomatically. Our best-guess of the portion of the population that is infected could be off by an order of 300 according to one epidemiologist. The only way this ends is if we test everyone or we develop a vaccine or an effective treatment.

Actually, estimates of infection rates being that far off, while they would doom efforts to contain the virus, would really be *good* news. Because:

A) It would mean that the actual death rate is far lower than observed, and,
B) Off by a factor of 300 would mean that the virus would burn through the whole population of the US after about 1 million known infections and a few tens of thousands of deaths (based on the ratio of known cases to deaths in various places so far), and then wouldn't have anybody left to jump to that wasn't already immune. This is a far better scenario than the worst case scenarios of a few million dead that I've seen quoted.

 

[insanity]

Actually, estimates of infection rates being that far off, while they would doom efforts to contain the virus, would really be *good* news. Because:

A) It would mean that the actual death rate is far lower than observed, and,
B) Off by a factor of 300 would mean that the virus would burn through the whole population of the US after about 1 million known infections and a few tens of thousands of deaths (based on the ratio of known cases to deaths in various places so far), and then wouldn't have anybody left to jump to that wasn't already immune. This is a far better scenario than the worst case scenarios of a few million dead that I've seen quoted.

Aye, would be great news. Can't know that until we test everyone, sadly. I'd wager that 300 is way too optimistic, but could buy something like 20-100.



Worth the read: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

[Artlav]

The mild infections theory does not seem to add up well with successful quarantine measures in places like South Korea. They used contact tracking to get everyone infected under quarantine, and if there were 300 times the infection, then they should have seen new cases pop up at random in general population.

Might not be worth getting your hopes up.

 

[Keatah]

I don't get the stubborn U.S. resistance to testing. And lack of big data to integrate all that demographic/location data. So much for high tech..

It's like they don't want anyone to get tested.

 

[Urwumpe]

OK, now it maybe hit me: My employer announced reduced working hours for all employees, even those who can work partially from home office. That includes me.

That will be a hard hit to my income, in the worst case a reduction to 84% of my regular income. Which means I will make a small loss every month. Just by estimation, in the worst case my current reserves will last 8 months, maybe 10 if I can avoid some bigger expenses, before I will be in debt.

Some helicopter money might now be a good thing.

 

[PhantomCruiser]

They are considering breaking all of us (maintenance types) into two groups in order for us to work a 14 day on/14 day off rotation (as in stay here at work 24/7 for 2 weeks straight).

What isn't clear to us yet is what will be our disposition during the off time. As in, will we be forced to take leave... is it paid/unpaid leave... if unpaid, what about the insurance that automatically gets taken from our paycheck... This being the government, the bosses just look at one another and shrug, or give us a blank stare.

Either nobody in charge knows anything, or they do and don't want to be the one who lets the information out.

 

[Notebook]

For Urwumpe and PhantomCruiser above, and other interested parties.

UK government is paying 85% of companies wage bill to avoid laying off staff. This to companies that have forced to close-down.
Details to be worked out regarding number of emplyees and the self-employed.

For a Conservative government this is remarkable.

What is the situation in other countries?

 

[tl8]

For Urwumpe and PhantomCruiser above, and other interested parties.

UK government is paying 85% of companies wage bill to avoid laying off staff. This to companies that have forced to close-down.
Details to be worked out regarding number of emplyees and the self-employed.

For a Conservative government this is remarkable.

What is the situation in other countries?

Aus Government is basically suspending business tax income. Social security is also a lot easier to get. But no $900 per person like last time.


The company is ok for a few months and we have some big ag clients, but things will get hairy end of April.

 

[Urwumpe]

What is the situation in other countries?

Well, in Germany we have a lot of such tools already from the last crisis, so we don't need to reinvent the wheel.



Also, the government has decided to take 150 billion € additional debts, contrary to their no-new-debts policy of the past years.



But the current measures are rather foolish. Taxes are delayed, no abatement. The government loans have to be repaid after the virus, when the economy is still sorting itself out.



Only good thing, nobody can loose their apartment or office, if he can no longer pay the rent. But that is just a short term measure.



Again, after the virus will be the critical phase. When the economy slowly ramps up again and winners and losers will appear.

 

[Notebook]

Same here regarding renters. No one to be evicted for none payment of rent for three months.

 

[Linguofreak]

The mild infections theory does not seem to add up well with successful quarantine measures in places like South Korea. They used contact tracking to get everyone infected under quarantine, and if there were 300 times the infection, then they should have seen new cases pop up at random in general population.

Might not be worth getting your hopes up.

Well, there does seem to be some indication that asymptomatic cases are less infectious. Which makes sense for a respiratory virus, as many of the viruses that end up in the air / on surfaces will have been shed in coughs and sneezes. Also, a big reason for a person being asymptomatic is likely to be that their immune system is keeping the viral population in their body down, which will reduce the number of viruses they shed and also the likelyhood that they will test positive.

 

[Notebook]

Coronavirus: Harvey Weinstein tests positive

Not all bad news.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52000173