Gorn
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> Since all discussion of the presidential election is now of academic interest only
I wouldn't go that far. I just checked the latest betting line on the election, and at the moment it's Obama = -350, McCain = +220. Now, the -/+ is betting notation; what it means is that a $350 bet on Obama that pays off will net the bettor $100 profit, while a $100 bet on McCain that pays off will net the bettor $220 profit. In other words, Obama's 2-7, McCain's 11-5. That's kind of a weird way to gauge public opinion, but it does have one virtue; the people who participated in that "poll" are confident enough in their opinions to put their money where their mouths are -- literally.
That doesn't mean that all those Obama bettors are planning on voting for Obama, though. It just means there's a widespread public perception that Obama's more or less got it locked up. Some of those Obama bettors are probably Republicans who think he's a sure thing at this point and wanna make a buck.
Now, looking at the latest poll numbers and asking the question, "what if the election were held today," it looks bad for McCain. If you tally up the projected electoral votes state by state, tossing out those where the polls are statistically too close to call, Obama's got 259; not the 270 needed for victory, but close. McCain's only got 163, and 116 votes are in states that are toss-ups.
But all of McCain's states are solidly in his camp, with strong poll margins in his favor. OTOH, about 50 of Obama's projected electoral votes by that tally come from states where he's got a statistically reliable but slim lead -- places where it can be predicted that if the election were held today, Obama would win by a whisker. Some of Obama's rise in the projected electoral numbers almost certainly comes from the recent bad economic news, the immediate reaction of many to blame the President's entire party when something goes wrong, and the result that some states have shifted to being slightly in Obama's favor. Whether McCain can reverse that remains to be seen, but I don't think he's out of the race yet.
I'm skeptical of McCain/Palin's chances too, but you wouldn't have to offer me 11-5 or even 2-1 odds to get me to bet on them; I'd be happy with 3-2.![Wink ;) ;)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
Danny
I wouldn't go that far. I just checked the latest betting line on the election, and at the moment it's Obama = -350, McCain = +220. Now, the -/+ is betting notation; what it means is that a $350 bet on Obama that pays off will net the bettor $100 profit, while a $100 bet on McCain that pays off will net the bettor $220 profit. In other words, Obama's 2-7, McCain's 11-5. That's kind of a weird way to gauge public opinion, but it does have one virtue; the people who participated in that "poll" are confident enough in their opinions to put their money where their mouths are -- literally.
That doesn't mean that all those Obama bettors are planning on voting for Obama, though. It just means there's a widespread public perception that Obama's more or less got it locked up. Some of those Obama bettors are probably Republicans who think he's a sure thing at this point and wanna make a buck.
Now, looking at the latest poll numbers and asking the question, "what if the election were held today," it looks bad for McCain. If you tally up the projected electoral votes state by state, tossing out those where the polls are statistically too close to call, Obama's got 259; not the 270 needed for victory, but close. McCain's only got 163, and 116 votes are in states that are toss-ups.
But all of McCain's states are solidly in his camp, with strong poll margins in his favor. OTOH, about 50 of Obama's projected electoral votes by that tally come from states where he's got a statistically reliable but slim lead -- places where it can be predicted that if the election were held today, Obama would win by a whisker. Some of Obama's rise in the projected electoral numbers almost certainly comes from the recent bad economic news, the immediate reaction of many to blame the President's entire party when something goes wrong, and the result that some states have shifted to being slightly in Obama's favor. Whether McCain can reverse that remains to be seen, but I don't think he's out of the race yet.
I'm skeptical of McCain/Palin's chances too, but you wouldn't have to offer me 11-5 or even 2-1 odds to get me to bet on them; I'd be happy with 3-2.
Danny