News Is James Cameron launching an asteroid mining company? (Planetary Resources thread)

[jedidia]

I would have to disagree. Spaceflight is a field in which the challenges that you're up against are fairly cut-throat, and you have to approach and defeat them in a cold, calculating manner. Unbridled enthusiasm alone will get you absolutely nowhere- your project will end up with a couple of cool CG images and a website, and then slowly vanish from the global consciousness.

Ah, I think we have a purely semantic disagreement here. What I meant was that the motivation s not primarily for the money or for political motives, which both would be a sure-fire way to get the project canceled at the first sign of trouble. A visionary can endure longer.

Also, I didn't mean "unbridled enthusiasm". That's why I think it's so important that their plans are within the realm of the possible and imaginable, although certainly bold, unlike Guys like Zubrin. That's not what I would call vision, it's outright fanatism.

Anyways, watched it, not that much new things after all those articles (of course an all-american motivational animation at the beginning, can't do without), but it's good to see the thing going official and the people responsible sitting together and saying, "yeah, we really want to do it!".

 

[orb]

SPACE.com:

• Asteroid Mining and Planetary Resources: Complete Coverage
  
  
• Does Asteroid Mining Violate Space Law?
  
  
• Is Asteroid Mining Possible? Study Says Yes, for $2.6 Billion
  
  
• Asteroid Miners Wanted to Tap Space Rock Riches

 

[anemazoso]

Freakin awesome!! Got goosebumps watching that. This would be so cool if they succeed. I wish them the best of luck!

 

[Hielor]

• Does Asteroid Mining Violate Space Law?
  
  

Interesting read, thanks.

Somehow I don't think the original signers to the Outer Space Treaty considered this case very well--a strict reading of it (as presented by the Scotland fellow in the article) seems to say that it's not allowed, but preventing this kind of thing would severely hamper mankind's future in space.

 

[Gerdih]

I'm not reading on this thread often because I am pessimistic about great private endeavours in the coming 100 years. And with great I mean mining asteroids. But it seems this thread is not being forgotten in one side of O-F. Hell, if he really mine asteroids I will change completly my vision of future spaceflight, I cant wait to end the university to try to join to this world. I was so happy about spacex but this would be just amazing. But I will be pesimistic before make ilusions with smoke. I will keep reading and take depth into what they want to do.

 

[Hielor]

They do have a careers page up, and they say they have:

specific immediate needs in the following areas: 1) Guidance, Navigation, and Control; 2) Flight and Ground Software; and 3) Optical and Laser Systems.

The page shows that they at least have a good sense of humor, and is worth looking at even if you have no intent of applying.

 

[Dambuster]

Does anyone else get the feeling that something just doesn't quite add up about all this? I definitely have that, but can't work out why.

The idea about an Avatar promo is interesting, but at the end of the day it seems too strange that they would get so many prominent people together and get so much news attention for something which is ultimately BS.

Edit: I saw that careers page is interesting...think it may be what gave me that feeling actually - it just doesn't quite square with the rest of what they've been saying IMO.

 

[FADEC]

This is just a big advertising campaign for making lots of money and enjoying delusions

 

[T.Neo]

Edit: I saw that careers page is interesting...think it may be what gave me that feeling actually - it just doesn't quite square with the rest of what they've been saying IMO.

Perhaps it just shows that they have a sense of humor.

Sometimes tongue-in-cheek stuff isn't uncommon in this field- see SpaceX's dairy-based ballast weights (though admittedly they kept that one secret so as not to overshadow the actual accomplishment).

This is just a big advertising campaign for making lots of money and enjoying delusions

I would not say that just yet. If it is an advertising campaign, you have to ask: what are they advertising.

It can't be solely for Cameron's Avatar movies because;

1. Seriously, it's Avatar. The highest grossing film of all time. A sequel film is going to make a whole lot of money anyway.

2. There are are all these big names involved, like Diamandis and Simonyi and Page and whatnot. Are they all seriously in this to promote James Cameron's movies?

And that then leads to the question, what are they advertising. And I really cannot think of anything that they could be advertising that could be making a large sum of money. A bunch of billionaires are not going to join up to sell caps and t-shirts. I suppose, it could be good marketing for the series of satellites they're proposing- even if they never mine a single asteroid, perhaps they could turn a profit off of selling these satellite buses to people.

But is the asteroid mining stuff really necessary? It generates good buzz for the public, but how important is that in the actual space world, of engineers and scientists? Plus, there's other stuff that's linked to this- like scientific papers on asteroid retrieval- that add extra legitimacy.

I agree that they might be deluded, but this is a fairly qualified and successful group of people; if they turn out to be wrong, it'd most likely be because they just underestimated something somewhere, or they were incorrect.

I doubt they're in this to make a huge amount of money just by advertising something. Quite frankly I doubt they're in this to make a huge amount of money from asteroid mining. To make a little bit of money in space, you have to start out with a whole lot of money. :shifty:

Then again there's stuff like the Space Island Group. Does SIG actually do anything beyond have a fancy website these days?

 

[Hielor]

The idea about an Avatar promo is interesting, but at the end of the day it seems too strange that they would get so many prominent people together and get so much news attention for something which is ultimately BS.

I don't think that's the case at this point--there seems to be too much behind this for it to be a hoax.

Plus, they missed April 1st by nearly a month.

 

[FADEC]

Are they all seriously in this to promote James Cameron's movies?

No. They promote their companies and their names. If I would have a big company, or if I would be a successful and internationally known entrepreneur, I would probably join them. It's always good to have your name related to something like this.

Asteroid mining is not going to happen. Not within the first half of this century. We still have enough resources down here.

 

[Notebook]

BBC has woken up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17835607

N.

 

[Jarod]

Asteroid mining is not going to happen. Not within the first half of this century. We still have enough resources down here.

I'm not so sure about that, yes we have resources down here, but it's always a trade-off between costs, difficulty and regulations. There are a lot of resources technically easy to exploit that we can't exploit because of regulations.
That artificially drives up the price of commodities and makes other solutions appear attractives.
Anyway, they're in it first to mine water as they bet that there will be a market for it not on Earth but in space. They even considered that they can still earn money even if it were a hundred times cheaper to launch water from Earth.
Metals will have to wait, hard mining too as they'll only collect ice from rubble pile asteroids at first.
There is no technology breakthrough needed I think, just thorough application of what is already developed. Water from rubble pile asteroids is "easy".

 

[orb]

Florida Today: Startup aims to cull space rocks' rich resources

SPACE.com: Asteroid Mining Is Just Latest Billionaire's Club Space Project

RIA Novosti: Private Company Announces Asteroid Mining Plans

 

[T.Neo]

No. They promote their companies and their names.

Fair point, but their companies are fairly comfortable business-wise and already have considerable advertising- and there are certain aspects of this venture that do indeed point to a legitimate (if daring) business plan.

They even considered that they can still earn money even if it were a hundred times cheaper to launch water from Earth.

That makes no sense at all. If you attempted to sell something like coal or oil at a hundred times the usual going price, you'd go out of business before you've even started.

Water from rubble pile asteroids is "easy".

But making it into something more useful (hydrogen/oxygen propellant) is more challenging; you have to electrolyse the water and refrigerate the resultant elements to their cryogenic state (and keep it that way).

In addition, quite a big problem I can see is that there isn't really any market for water in space- the need for water by exploration missions postulated by Planetary Sciences is pretty hypothetical and there's no guarantee that such missions (let alone missions with such requirements) will materialise in the next few decades.

 

[Urwumpe]

But making it into something more useful (hydrogen/oxygen propellant) is more challenging; you have to electrolyse the water and refrigerate the resultant elements to their cryogenic state (and keep it that way).

Wrong process, electrolysis is not very popular for bulk production. Steam reforming from methane is the primary process on Earth. Only 5% of the hydrogen on Earth comes from electrolysis.

 

[Jarod]

That makes no sense at all. If you attempted to sell something like coal or oil at a hundred times the usual going price, you'd go out of business before you've even started.

Something must have been lost in translation. Today, bringing water to ISS costs x $/kg, they think that even if the cost is brought down to x/100 , they can earn money by selling water at x/100. Nobody is selling anything 100x.

But making it into something more useful (hydrogen/oxygen propellant) is more challenging; you have to electrolyse the water and refrigerate the resultant elements to their cryogenic state (and keep it that way).

I haven't heard anything about selling anything else than water, I guess they expect customers to do the rest.

In addition, quite a big problem I can see is that there isn't really any market for water in space- the need for water by exploration missions postulated by Planetary Sciences is pretty hypothetical and there's no guarantee that such missions (let alone missions with such requirements) will materialise in the next few decades.

Well, that's the bet they're doing and that's their problem. In any case, they think they'll be "ready" in "10" years, so I don't expect them to call it quit before that timeframe given the money and ambition they seem to have.

 

[C3PO]

I don't think you can equate this business venture to the usual run-of-the-mill business. I see it more as an attempt to jump-start a marked for off-planet resources.

The marked for private space tourism is going quite well even if we've still have to see the first tourist launched on a privately operated craft.

They do sound like they realize that this kind of long term venture may end up very different from the the initial expectations. But they're willing to put some $ behind it.

Somewhere down the line the space business will get a "Model-T" that will broaden the marked enough to make economic sense. Current space craft are more like Bugattis and Duesenbergs in those terms.

It might end up being a Spruce Goose, but at least we'll learn something new along the way.

 

[Mandella]

I don't think you can equate this business venture to the usual run-of-the-mill business. I see it more as an attempt to jump-start a marked for off-planet resources.

I agree. Like I said, somebody has got to lose money now to get somebody else in a position to make money in the future. It amazes me that we actually have monied folks "of vision" willing to take this hit in the interests of our specie's future in space, but then isn't this what the Golden Age science fiction authors (Heinlein especially) predicted?

When I was a kid I read The Man Who Sold the Moon, and I hoped I'd live long enough to see a Harriman. Maybe now I have.

Or this is just a gimmick and we're back to square one.

:facepalm:

 

[RGClark]

I agree. Like I said, somebody has got to lose money now to get somebody else in a position to make money in the future. It amazes me that we actually have monied folks "of vision" willing to take this hit in the interests of our specie's future in space, but then isn't this what the Golden Age science fiction authors (Heinlein especially) predicted?
When I was a kid I read The Man Who Sold the Moon, and I hoped I'd live long enough to see a Harriman. Maybe now I have.
Or this is just a gimmick and we're back to square one.
:facepalm:

You're assuming it has to lose money.
A key fact is the cost to space can be cut by two orders of magnitude by reusability as Elon Musk has been saying. This would majorly reduce the launch cost portion of the equation.

Bob Clark