News Kyrgyzstan unrest.

[Notebook]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia_pacific/10304165.stm

Is this likely to generate civil war?

N.

 

[ddom2006]

I doubt Russia will allow it to get that far, Russia much like the United States does with Israel/South Korea has an obligation with former Soviet states and close allies to step in if 'required'. As far as I understand Kyrgyzstan has already opened the door for this to happen. I think inevitably if it esculates Russia will step in and 'restore order'.

 

[Notebook]

Its not getting any better:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia_pacific/10341348.stm

N.

 

[ddom2006]

Agreed. Strange in this situation given the last time something similar happened (Kosovo) NATO went on a huge anti-government bombing campaign. If Russia refuses to intervene, I can see UN Peacekeepers having to put boots on the ground though *Cringe*.

 

[AirSimming]

Is this likely to generate civil war?

Yes.

 

[Notebook]

Can't see NATO getting into this, its on the "wrong" side of Europe, and its got its hands full elsewhere. Looks like it will degenerate into a nasty internal civil strife.

N.

 

[jedidia]

great. we're getting another Bosnia and Hercegovina :beathead:

 

[Urwumpe]

How had been the words... "Rwanda should never happen again?"

Is there oil in Kyrgyzstan?

 

[Jarvitä]

great. we're getting another Bosnia and Hercegovina :beathead:

And again, it's because of a dictator re-drawing borders so they don't make any sense with regards to ethnicities.

 

[Urwumpe]

And again, it's because of a dictator re-drawing borders so they don't make any sense with regards to ethnicities.

Not alone that though... you also need oppression against minorities and using minorities as scapegoats for internal problems.

if you only think in ethnicities, you often oversee the small problems that really cause the trouble. In this case, the instable political situation inside Kyrgyzstan - the current government is just "acting".

 

[jedidia]

Not alone that though... you also need oppression against minorities and using minorities as scapegoats for internal problems.

yeah, and what worries me most is that switzerland is currently really warming up to the concept... (hmmm... no vomit smiley)

 

[ddom2006]

Can't see NATO getting into this, its on the "wrong" side of Europe, and its got its hands full elsewhere. Looks like it will degenerate into a nasty internal civil strife.

N.

If Russia won't go in, NATO is almost obligated to. The world can't be seen to not have a force ready to 'police' it, America know this, Russia knows it. External influence will come about if the violence continues.

 

[Notebook]

The UN is doing its best.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia_pacific/10356065.stm
NATO wont get involved in this, Russia is the local powerbroker, and for some reason dosen't want to do much,

N.

 

[ddom2006]

Esentially the order of world policing goes Local countries/Alliances > UN > NATO.

Since Russia has ruled out getting involved, America cannot go in individually (It'd upset Russia big time), The UN has ruled out putting boots on the ground for now, the only remaining force is NATO, which would have presidence for getting involved in these matters.

 

[ar81]

If there are clashes beyond a few people marching with banners on the street, it is not just unrest. Someone must be providing the money to fuel and spread trouble (a financial arsonist?). It is not just that 1000 protesters take government offices every day ant take government workers as hostages and then continue to cause trouble. Someone big is behind it.

Who is providing the money for that? What's there that the big fish providing the money may want?

 

[Notebook]

This man could maybe answer a few of your questions:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/15/kyrgyzstan-demands-extradition-maxim-bakiyev

N.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Since Russia has ruled out getting involved, America cannot go in individually (It'd upset Russia big time), The UN has ruled out putting boots on the ground for now, the only remaining force is NATO, which would have presidence for getting involved in these matters.

Russia doesn't even have a common border with Kyrgyzstan, so it's not that simple to send any troops in a way other than using a massive airlift. The ethnic Russians had been freezed out of Kyrgyzstan since the beginning of 90's, and those who are still there aren't officially regarded Russian citizens by our authorities. Somewhere it may be different, but here in the Central Asia things are going back to strong division of people by their language/race/origin. I think we must make it as simple as possible for the Russians to travel from troubled regions to Russian ground, settle and adapt.

 

[Notebook]

Intersting background article here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia_pacific/10428617.stm

N.

 

[Notebook]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia_pacific/10497530.stm

Interim leader Rosa Otunbayeva has been sworn in as president of the troubled republic of Kyrgyzstan.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Now she is the first ever female president of an Islamic Central Asia ex-USSR state.