News UARS about to fall from the sky

[kuddel]

According to Orbitron UARS has just passed over my location.
And as I don't see anything 'hot' and 'streaky' I assume it's still up there :thumbup:
This might reduce the +-15 hour uncertainty to -4 to +15 hours
/Kuddel

 

[Marg]

Yeah, no fireworks above Riga also around midnight ~0:08... so it`s still up there

 

[Ghostrider]

It's biding its time, seeking its target... Watch your back, it could be right behind you with a knife in... OK, it's still up there.

 

[orb]

SPACE.com:

• How Tumbling Motion Delayed Falling UARS Satellite's Plunge to Earth
• If NASA's Satellite Falls on Your Home, Who Pays for Repairs?
• Not 'UARS' to Keep: NASA Warns Against Collecting Falling Satellite's Debris
• FAA Warns Pilots to Watch for Falling NASA Satellite Debris

Aviation Week: NASA: Low Chance Falling Satellite Will Hit U.S.

collectSPACE: Not 'UARS' to keep: NASA warns against collecting falling satellite's debris

 

[T.Neo]

Guess what, people! UARS debris will have sharp edges!

The general public just can't handle sharp edges! Ergo the boffins at NASA have dictated that these potentially sharp edged pieces of debris are too dangerous for the public to handle!

Even though the public handles knives, opened tin cans, junk, garbage, and broken glass, all things that are known to regularly have sharp edges!

Run for your lives! Your kitchen may contain sharp-edged cooking utensils! And your cupboards might fail, sending them on a potentially dangerous sub-orbital trajectory!

Contact local law enforcement if you believe you may be near an object that you believe has a sharp edge!

 

[kuddel]

...and most of all: Keep calm (@T.Neo: ...even when posting sarcasm )

 

[T.Neo]

(@T.Neo: ...even when posting sarcasm )

Oops, was my sarcasm not sharp enough? :tiphat:

 

[agentgonzo]

Not really, the argument of periapsis simply changes strongly in that phase, but the periapsis passage remains the only candidate there.

No, but I can't be bothered to argue with you anymore because you just bring up irrelevancies. Yes, you're right. UARS will land wherever Urwumpe decides it will land. There is absolutely no chance if it landing on the side of the earth that close to the current apogee.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

I wonder how John Belushi would describe the situation with UARS? Hmmm...

:lol:

 

[MattBaker]

U.S. Strategic Command's latest projection shows re-entry occurring around 12:50 a.m. EDT (0450 GMT). But the margin of error is plus or minus four hours.

So, 0:50 GMT to 8:50 GMT, few more hours to go...

 

[RAF Blackace]

Looking at the Data I think re entry interface will be at the perigee near the ascending node at the Equator. Simply because that is the lowest point in the orbit measured from the centre of the Earth, and is the thickest part of the Atmosphere (Earth Bulges at the Equator). A mate of mine watching the data asked why it seems to climb over the UK, that is obviously because the altitude measurements are taken from the surface of the Earth, so it appears to gain altitude at higher and lower latitudes. For me that says it is coming down in the Pacific, or it it goes for a few more orbits, China is going to get it.

---------- Post added at 12:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:12 AM ----------

Besides, it has a current orbital eccentricity of 0.0005547, so the argument of Apogee and Perigee is really not going to come into it that much. What will come into it is where it hits the atmosphere, that will be at the Equator, unless the Earth suddenly becomes round. My bet is still on the Pacific or China.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

My bet is N. Canada. Current elements put periapsis on that side of the orbit, and by kurtosis arguments it is hanging out longer at higher latitudes.

That's my guess and I'm sticking to it, unless I'm wrong. :lol:

 

[RAF Blackace]

Actually wherever entry interface is, once it hits the atmosphere all bets are off. I'm inclined to go with Agentgonzo on that one, at least you will know it comes in somewhere on the orbital plane which rules out most of the world apart from a very narrow strip of it.

But if it does come in first time, I sticking with china.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

I just ran the latest elements through Orbiter. From the simulation, UARS went down in the N. Pacific just south of the Aleutian Islands around 0730 UTC. As the drag model is probably underestimating drag, it will probably come down a few orbits earlier.

The eccentricity varies significantly in each orbit. As UARS reaches periapsis, the eccentricity decreases as the apoapsis decreases, and it increases as apoapsis is approached. However, it doesn't seem to affect the location of the periapsis much until the last orbit.

I think NW Canada (British Columbia or Alberta) are looking pretty likely to me.

 

[MattBaker]

(Half) an hour to go now, i think Indian Ocean is a good guess now, currently UARs is over the Sahara, will "leave" Africa (if it leaves) via Mozambique and Madagascar, pass near the Kerguelen Islands on its way south, goes north before the Antarctica, and will pass Australia east, maybe the north isle of New Zealand is in the "danger area".

So somewhere there they have to deal with sharp debris, let's hope for Southern Indian Ocean.

edit 3:31 AM: UARS is now over the Indian Ocean, Africa and Madagascar are "safe", next inhabited area is New Zealand's noth isle near Auckland.

edit 3:37 AM: In 10 minutes we're in "deorbit window, so Pacific ocean is likely, North America possible... (The first area were NASA said "No, no, there's no danger" was the US, good job NASA!)

edit 3:43 AM: The passed area of New Zealand is north of Auckland, a 60 km (~35-40 miles) area, would be really bad luck... Wish i would be in Auckland, think you are able to see UARS, passing time is roughly 3:54 UTC

@Thunder Chicken: Now I have to think of gambling NASA-centers "100 on Pacific" - "50 on Canada"

3:56 AM: New Zealand passed, altitude still at ~130 km (80 miles). America would be reached at 4:18 UTC, south of Seattle

4:05 AM: Altitude is 126 km (78 miles), I think Canada gets a lovely present from their neighbours...

4:15 AM: Perigee passed, UARS makes another round! Altitude: 134 km (84 miles) Infos are mostly from Twitter, twitter.com/#!/UARS-Reentry and twitter.com/#!/TSKelso

This orbit of UARS won't be over Australia, but if it doesn't burn up this one, it's possible we have Skylab 2.0 | Heavens above track of this pass: http://bit.ly/r0ztDF

 

[Thunder Chicken]

This is like a game of roullette - 'round and 'round she goes, where she'll drop no one knows!

 

[Thunder Chicken]

@MattBaker - where are you getting your info?

 

[RisingFury]

Current best guesses place reentry west of New Zealand, south of Australia, over the ocean.

Two sources of info:
http://twitter.com/#!/UARS_Reentry --- RADAR tracking updated every 5 minutes.
http://twitter.com/#!/TSKelso

 

[Thunder Chicken]

So much for Canada. I say north of Hawaii if it makes it around again.

If it happens to squeak its way around one more time (doubtful), that would plant it pretty close to where it went down in my earlier Orbiter simulation, just south of the Aleutians. The perigee position per orbit has been spot on with the simulation.

But gee, how would Australia feel if another smoking piece of NASA wreckage were to come down near Canberra?

 

[MattBaker]

It's possible that #UARS is down by now. (Everybody OK out there?) We're waiting for confirmation from US Strategic Command.

Nasa Twitter Account

So, the show is over and no one gets it? (otherwise it's likely to be the last pass of Africa)