Launch News (Failure) Phobos-Grunt and YingHuo-1 atop Zenit-2 on November 8/9, 2011

[RGClark]

Also such a plan, if feasible, feels like it would be met with... fierce resistance by US authorities.

Actually, the Americans might like it because it would showcase the capabilities of the X-37B. Whether the Russians would allow it or permit is a different question.
Also, I've seen reports that the Chinese may have their own version of the X-37B.


Bob Clark

 

[Urwumpe]

1. Do you know what the X-37B has as payloads? Maybe it tests a warp drive and is not equipped for your plans.
2. The Chinese also have their own space shuttle by 1990, their own Moon landing by 1995 and their own space station by 2000. (Or in other words: Fear is no replacement for proper logic and analysis)

 

[orb]

Universe Today: Consolation Prize for Phobos-Grunt? Experts Consider Possibilities for Sending Spacecraft to Moon or Asteroid:

If communication with Russia’s troubled Phobos-Grunt is not established by November 21, the window for a trajectory to the Martian moon Phobos, will close, experts say. But this would not mean that the spacecraft could not travel to a different destination. In a statement published earlier today by the news and information agency Ria Novosti, Russian space expert Igor Lisov suggested that Phobos-Grunt could be sent to orbit the Moon – Earth’s Moon, that is – or may be even an asteroid, if communication is restored at any point before the 13-ton probe re-enters Earth’s atmosphere.

{...}

A Consolation Prize

While cautioning that the idea of sending Phobos-Grunt somewhere other than Phobos falls into the realm of wishful thinking, Lisov urged that efforts to reconnect with the spacecraft continue in full force as long as the craft is in space. Despite several failures of lunar missions, the former Soviet space program did succeed in returning samples from the lunar surface to Earth in the 1970s. Thus, re-purposing the current mission as “Luna-Grunt” or something of that nature is not likely to have the same appeal as Phobos-Grunt has among Russians. Nor could the Grunt landing craft, designed to scoop a surface sample into a capsule that would return to Earth, even set down on the lunar surface. But other components of the science payload might be useful. Though built to observe Mars,China’s Yinghuo-1 orbiter might be able to do something interesting from lunar orbit. Instruments that were to remain on the Phobosian surface might be useful as well.

Then, there is the issue of avoiding reentry. Experts at Roscosmos are confident that the many tons of nitrogen teroxide and hydrazine in Grunt’s fuel tanks will burn up high in the atmosphere if the probe reenters. But people around the planet are scared, and thus might prefer that the fuel be used, even for a one-way mission with undefined science objectives. More importantly, achieving in a partial victory by sending the spacecraft anywhere but back to Earth could give rise to an Apollo 13-like milieu that might reinvigorate the Russian planetary program.

{...}

A Possible Asteroid Mission

Lisov also speculated about sending the Grunt spacecraft to an asteroid instead of the Moon. Various asteroids travel fairly close to Earth, and it’s plausible that a Grunt probe revived after November 21 would have enough ?v to reach one of them. Unlike Earth’s Moon, whose gravity the Grunt lander was not designed to withstand, many asteroids are small. Theoretically, Grunt’s lander could set down on any celestial body with a gravitational force similar to that of Phobos. If any such asteroid candidate exists –and this is a big if– the ascent engine, designed to propel the Grunt return capsule back to Earth might be utilized to deliver a sample of the asteroid, along with the LIFE experiment.

{...}

 

[orb]

RIA Novosti: Last chance to send Russian Mars moon probe expires Monday:

The launch window to send Russia's Phobos-Grunt unmanned spacecraft to a Mars moon will close on Monday, an airspace source told RIA Novosti.

"The spacecraft has already unfolded its solar panels and is in the so-called "barbeque mode," the source said, speaking about the passive thermal control mode during which the spacecraft rotates slowly around its roll axis to prevent one side from continuous solar exposure and overheating.

"So, the ballistic window for Phobos-Grunt's flight to Mars is limited by November 21," he said.

{...}

The head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, Vladimir Popovkin, dismissed media reports about possible reentry risk, saying Phobos-Grunt contains 7.5 metric tons highly toxic hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide in its aluminum tanks, which are very likely to explode and destroy the probe upon re-entry.

An anonymous airspace source said some parts of the spacecraft may fall on earth, but they pose no danger.

The Russian space agency expects the possible reentry to take place no earlier than January and hopes to establish contact with the spacecraft until then. A Russian rocket ballistic expert named the United States, China, Africa, Middle East, some European States, Australia, Japan and in Russian Far East or North Caucasus as possible sites where the spacecraft fragments may fall.

Igor Lisov, editor of the industry magazine Cosmonautics News, said if contact with the spacecraft is established after the launch window's closure, it could still be sent to the Moon or even to an asteroid.

However, he said there were almost zero chances to revive the station.

According to Popovkin, the potential loss of the Mars probe would not affect the pace of Russia's space exploration. He said that Only 30 percent of Soviet-Russian launches to Mars were successful, the Americans have had 50 percent success, while all attempts by Japan and Europe have failed so far.

{...}

 

[RisingFury]

A Russian rocket ballistic expert named the United States, China, Africa, Middle East, some European States, Australia, Japan and in Russian Far East or North Caucasus as possible sites where the spacecraft fragments may fall.

Am I the only one that finds this funny? They have to call a ballistic expert to tell them where the impact zone is - after covering TWO falling satellites within a month?

 

[T.Neo]

I like how they describe how practically the entire northern hemisphere is a possible region at which debris may fall. :facepalm:

 

[Artlav]

So, what confuses me most:
They had FG almost ready for launch at the last window, 2 years ago.
And they decided not to launch to improve the odds.

That means there were 2 years of polishing time, enough to debug a Chinese iPhone rip-off into a candy.
What the heck were they doing all this time?

I can understand spontaneous disassembly in rocket science, but not just failing silently due to zero redundancy.
AIS is not a washing machine!

 

[gwiz]

The major change from two years ago appears to be the addition of the Chinese satellite.

The basic problem is that it is a very complex mission with a small budget. If you want a comparison with a similar situation, look at Beagle 2.

 

[garyw]

No chance now to save Phobos-Grunt Mars mission

Source: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/21/window_closes_on_phobos_grunt/

The window to contact the stranded Phobos-Grunt and send it on its mission to the Martian moon has now closed.

The craft could still fly by the Red Planet, but it will no longer be able to complete its exploration of the Martian moon Phobos and return to Earth, space industry sources told Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

Over the last two weeks, there was no clear response from attempts to get in contact with the Mars probe, which got stuck in Earth's orbit when its engines failed to fire and send it on its way to the Red Planet.

If Russia wants to try again to get a spaceship to Mars, or indeed has the billion or so rubles it will need to try again, the next opportunity will be 2014.

Russian space boffins have been trying for weeks to rescue the Phobos-Grunt, which launched successfully but never set out from Earth's orbit on its mission.

The attempt was always something of a long shot, since establishing any contact was difficult given the small windows during which it was in range of an earth-to-space communication centre, and even if they got in touch, there was no guarantee they could get the engines going.

A Russian space expert said last week that if the probe failed to get to Mars, the space agency should still keep trying to get in touch because it could maybe make it to Earth's Moon instead.

Failing that, just getting the craft to land on Earth instead of crashing through the atmosphere could allow the agency to recover equipment from the ship and even readings from its instruments.

If all attempts to contact the Phobos-Grunt fail, it will eventually fall out of Earth's orbit and crash through the atmosphere.

Vladimir Popovkin, head of the Russian space agency, has dismissed fears that it could crash into civilian areas, saying that the 7.5 metric tonnes of fuel aboard the craft in aluminium tanks would ensure it exploded on re-entry.

However, earlier today a source told RIA Novosti that some heat-resistant parts of the probe could fall to earth.

Russian space sources have also variously given the Phobos-Grunt until December, January or even March to fall out of the sky.

 

[RisingFury]

So, officially mission failed

It would be cool if they could send it to an asteroid.

 

[MaverickSawyer]

Can they talk to the dang thing yet? If they can't communicate, there's no chance of salvage.

 

[orb]

Parabolic Arc: Report: Phobos-Grunt Launch Window for Mars Closes Today

 

[Urwumpe]

The European Probe Mars Express did reach Mars, if I am not mistaken. It was just this annoying British blind passenger that failed to survive reaching Mars.

 

[T.Neo]

The European Probe Mars Express did reach Mars, if I am not mistaken. It was just this annoying British blind passenger that failed to survive reaching Mars.

You mean the Beagle 2 rover, that was actually destroyed by a transformer while rolling across a magically nonexistant Martian salt-flat?

Micheal Bay and space flight. :facepalm:

 

[Ghostrider]

Feasible to target Bart Sibrel's house as impact point? Just asking...

 

[Urwumpe]

Feasible to target Bart Sibrel's house as impact point? Just asking...

It is not responding, so no chance to upload target coordinates. But maybe we can use Bart Sibrel to deorbit the spacecraft by exploiting his over-average inertia.

 

[RGClark]

RIA Novosti: Last chance to send Russian Mars moon probe expires Monday:

​

Perhaps it could still work to do a low energy trajectory to Mars:

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_energy_transfer"]Low energy transfer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]


Bob Clark

 

[orb]

Universe Today: Can Phobos-Grunt Still be Saved? Scientists Hold Out Hope as Deadlines Loom:

Although the launch window for a round-trip to Mars closed yesterday (November 21, 2011) with Russia’s Phobos-Grunt probe still circling in low Earth orbit, a one-way flight to the Red Planet will be possible for another few weeks. As Russian engineers frantically try to contact the silent probe, scientists from the Yinghuo-1 and LIFE experiments are holding out hope that they could still complete their missions, or a perhaps even a modified version of their experiments.

{...}

RIA Novosti:

• Russian experts baffled by probe’s erratic behavior:

  Russian Federal Space Agency experts are puzzled by the rising orbit of the Phobos-Grunt unmanned Mars probe, Roscosmos deputy head Vitaly Davydov said on Tuesday.
  
  {...}
  
  “Unfortunately, we still don’t have any telemetric information from the spacecraft so we don’t understand what’s going on,” Davydov said.
  
  “The most interesting part is that Phobos-Grunt is on an oriented flight course but, according to our data, something unusual is happening with it.”
  
  He suggested that the spacecraft’s control system might still be functional or there could have been a fuel leak, causing its orbit to rise.
  
  A Russian expert earlier said one reason for the spacecraft’s unexpected behavior could be the aerodynamic resistance of its solar batteries acting as wings and pushing it up.
  
  According to another industry expert, Phobos-Grunt will not fall to Earth until mid-March because of its rising orbit.
  
  All attempts to receive a signal from the spacecraft have so far been unsuccessful.
  
  {...}

  
  
• Russia’s space agency wants to focus on Moon if Mars mission fails:

  If Russia’s Phobos-Grunt Mars mission fails the country's space agency may focus on Moon exploration, the deputy head of the Roscosmos agency said on Tuesday.
  
  {...}
  
  “We will have a good think,” Vitaly Davydov told journalists at the Mission Control Center outside Moscow, “If it becomes clear that everything has failed and the insurance issue is settled… we will decide what to do next.”
  
  “We have already said that we are planning to make the Moon our next step,” Davydov said, “It would be reasonable to focus on the Moon.”
  
  {...}

 

[Tychonaut]

“We have already said that we are planning to make the Moon our next step,” Davydov said, “It would be reasonable to focus on the Moon.”

It might also be reasonable to make their next few missions less ambitious and expensive. Simpler and cheaper missions can get into space sooner, allowing Roscosmos to rebuild their experience base on planetary missions. Not to mention improving morale, which can't be the greatest right now. If they rush into some sort of "Luna-Grunt," and it fails...that will be mightily embarrassing.

Meanwhile, Russian space industry specialists are working on a project to build a manned spaceship with a nuclear engine to send missions to the Moon and Mars.

There they go with the grandiose schemes again. Would it not make more sense to try a chemically-fueled manned mission to the Moon before trying it with a nuclear rocket? Learn one new skill you have no experience with, then try another new skill no one has experience with.
Has some overly enthusiastic Orbinaut seized control of Roscosmos?

Such a shame about Phobos-Grunt, though. I was really hoping they would find a way to save the mission. It would be nice if they could at least re-target it, but the prospects don't look good.
The will weep if P-G burns up.

 

[T.Neo]

There they go with the grandiose schemes again.

Seconded. :dry:

There they go with the grandiose schemes again. Would it not make more sense to try a chemically-fueled manned mission to the Moon before trying it with a nuclear rocket? Learn one new skill you have no experience with, then try another new skill no one has experience with.

Would it really gain that much for a nuclear lunar mission to fly a chemical one first? Perhaps perfecting and debugging the really untested parts of the equation (the nuclear stuff) would help more.

But why have a nuclear spacecraft for transit to the Moon, anyway? It sounds overkill. Chemical propulsion functions just fine for lunar flights, and may be cheaper and safer as well.