Launch News (Failure) Phobos-Grunt and YingHuo-1 atop Zenit-2 on November 8/9, 2011

[Dive]

I think after this probable failure(yes, it's not yet confirmed, fingers are still crossed), a lot of changes will be applied to the future Russian space probes. This means future Russian space projects will be delayed for years. And this is very sad.

 

[orb]

The Planetary Society Blog: Phobos-Grunt summary, three days after launch

 

[Codz]

Mars-Soil? A Mars sample return mission?

 

[IronRain]

NASA Spaceflight.com: Russian engineers battling to restore stricken Fobos-Grunt spacecraft

Despite several valiant attempts, Russian experts are still unable to command the Fobos-Grunt spacecraft back to nominal operations – which is required for it to carry out two critical burns to head to its Phobos destination. The spacecraft is expected to wander around in Low Earth Orbit for some time, although controllers only have two weeks to re-establish a command link to save the mission.

 

[orb]

RIA Novosti: Russia again fails to make contact with Mars moon probe:

Russia has again been again unsuccessful in its attempts to establish contact with its Phobos Grunt probe, whose engines failed to put in on course for Mars after take-off, a source in the space rocket industry told RIA Novosti on Saturday.

“Attempts to make contact were made overnight and this morning by Russian specialists from the European Space Agency. This was done from Baikonour and other tracking areas, but contact was not established,” the source said.

He also said Russia was being assisted by U.S. scientists and had until November 21 to make contact.

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[indonesianorbinaut]

Mars-Soil? A Mars sample return mission?

no, it's Phobos not Mars

 

[Urwumpe]

no, it's Phobos not Mars

For that mission, yes.

But if it would have been a successful test of the basic spacecraft bus, it would also have been used for a Mars-Grunt(Марс-Грунт) mission, with a landing module and bigger return capsule.

 

[Codz]

no, it's Phobos not Mars

I was reffering to the chart of spin off spacecraft.

 

[astrosammy]

"Фобос-Грунт" сам корректирует свою орбиту, утверждают эксперты

Mars-Sonde Phobos-Grunt führt eigenes Leben – Keine Verbindung mit Bodenstationen

They say that the spacecraft corrects it orbit.

Sounds unbelievable IMHO, a change of 6.5 km sounds more like atmospheric drag or nonspherical gravity sources.

 

[Orbinaut Pete]

As posted in the ISS thread - hope they used the 1000mm lens! :thumbup:

From ISS On-Orbit Status Report for 13/11/2011.

Phobos-Grunt Visibility:
The ISS crew was notified of viewing/photographing opportunities for the stranded Phobos-Grunt Mars probe from the DC-1 VL-1 and MRM-2 windows as it crossed the ISS trajectory this morning at 4:06:16 AM GMT and 4:52 AM GMT.

 

[Scrooge McDuck]

Yes, I noticed this too while playing this sunday afternoon with the iPhone/Pad app called GoSatWatch!
Using updated TLE's, you can clearly see them crossing pretty close while in sunlight.
At 5:06 with PG at 297 km, ISS at 375 km alt.
At 5:52 more separation (both horizontal and vertical), with PG at 247 km, ISS at 404 km.

So given the distance, even with a 1000mm lens I think it would be pretty hard to see... but I'm still looking forward to see the results!

 

[Ghostrider]

They say that the spacecraft corrects it orbit.

Sounds unbelievable IMHO, a change of 6.5 km sounds more like atmospheric drag or nonspherical gravity sources.

It's positioning itself for the attack. UARS and ROSAT were only the beginning: the Children of Humanity are coming home.

We're all gonna die.(TM)

 

[kuddel]

Sounds unbelievable IMHO, a change of 6.5 km sounds more like atmospheric drag or nonspherical gravity sources.

It really does...
I've just run a simulation of the current TLEs and added two more graphs to
the FlightDataMonitor(TM).
A variation of several "10ish" km is not really 'unusual' (see Attachment)
O.K. This is not a 100% accurate simulation, but it is not so far from reality.

/Kuddel

 

[Hartmann]

As posted in the ISS thread - hope they used the 1000mm lens! :thumbup:

From ISS On-Orbit Status Report for 13/11/2011.

Phobos-Grunt Visibility:
The ISS crew was notified of viewing/photographing opportunities for the stranded Phobos-Grunt Mars probe from the DC-1 VL-1 and MRM-2 windows as it crossed the ISS trajectory this morning at 4:06:16 AM GMT and 4:52 AM GMT.

Could be better try to comunicate but they would need special transmisors or another type of hardware

 

[Sevas]

Hi all.
I`m new one here, so if I repost question sorry me plz, maybe same thread already started, but I`ve found this one.

I`ve read Russian news, and most of them call 26 November or later (untill December) like date of falling the Phobos.
What do you think - is it have a sense to make simulation of falling Phobos in Orbiter? After real falling just compare impact point.
Sure, Orbiter have some limitations, real sun activity impossible to replicate in game, variation, deviations of atmosphere density also not calculated in Orbiter, orientation of Phobos unknown, impossible to calculate aerodynamic and so one. I know about, but I`m just interesting. For me success - if impact point ~ 1-2 day and 10k km compare to real event.

What addon is closest to Phobos parameters?
Thx

 

[orb]

RIA Novosti: Russia still hopes to regain control of Mars probe:

Russia has time until the beginning of December to establish contact with its Phobos-Grunt unmanned spacecraft that is stranded at a low-Earth orbit after launch, the Russian space agency Roscosmos said on Monday.

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“We estimate that the Phobos-Grunt will fly until January, and to make it perform its mission we still have time until the beginning of December,” head of Roscosmos Vladimir Popovkin told reporters.

Popovkin said the probe is moving along a 200-km orbit and has “communication windows” with ground control stations for about 2 minutes at a time.

In order to establish communications with Phobos-Grunt, the specialists reduced the power of the signal sent to the probe, since the first contact with the spacecraft was originally planned at a much higher trajectory, and widened the “communication window.”

Popovkin dismissed concerns that the remains of the probe could hit a populated area on Earth after the spacecraft enters the planet’s atmosphere in the worst case scenario.

“There are 7.5 metric tons of fuel in the aluminum tanks on board. We have no doubts that they will explode [and destroy the probe] upon re-entry,” Popovkin said. “It is highly unlikely that its parts would reach Earth.”

The head of Roscosmos said the potential loss of the Mars probe would not affect the pace of Russia’s space exploration.

“It would be a disappointment, of course, but it does not mean that we will fold our scientific projects,” Popovkin said.

{...}

 

[RGClark]

Interesting suggestion in the comments section here:

Phobos-Grunt Mars probe remains silent in Earth orbit.
BY STEPHEN CLARK
SPACEFLIGHT NOW
Posted: November 11, 2011
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1111/11phobosgrunt/

The idea would be to use the X-37B currently in orbit to communicate with the satellite. It certainly could at least photograph it.


Bob Clark

 

[Urwumpe]

The idea would be to use the X-37B currently in orbit to communicate with the satellite. It certainly could at least photograph it.

That contains too many assumptions on what payload or avionics the X-37B is actually carrying on-board. It is very likely that the X-37B does not have such capabilities at all.

 

[T.Neo]

Also such a plan, if feasible, feels like it would be met with... fierce resistance by US authorities.

 

[orb]

Universe Today: Phobos-Grunt’s Mysterious Thruster Activation: A Function of Safe Mode or Just Good Luck?:

The Phobos-Grunt probe is still stuck in orbit around Earth. However, periodically the spacecraft experiences a mysterious slight boost in its orbit. Following the first episode where this occurred, commentators speculated as to the cause. The activation of the spacecraft’s thrusters – the small engines that are designed to steer the craft and make small adjustments – was an obvious answer.

Is spacecraft trying to save itself?

The spacecraft is not responding to any communications, and engineers at the Russian Space Agency Roscosmos have decided that the craft had reverted to a safe mode after the engine of the Fregat rocket stage that was to propel her from a low to a higher orbit around Earth failed to ignite. While in safe mode, the craft had oriented herself to the Sun, using the thrusters to adjust her roll, pitch, and yaw. But to change the parameters of the orbit, she’d need to accelerate, so there was speculation that the needed thrust had come from leaks and venting of gases in a direction favorable to increased orbital stability.

After a second episode during which the altitude increased again, according to Ria Novosti editor-columnist of the journal “News of Cosmonautics” Igor Lisov has reported that a source in the space industry had explained that the probe “Corrects her orbit” every now and then.

Corrects her orbit? Does this mean that the probe knows where she is?

Probably not.

With information coming from Roscosmos being so scarce, reporting on the mission that began was launched on November 9, 2011 has depended on a few official statements from the agency, augmented by speculation from various space experts. Being in safe mode, Grunt simply is waiting for instructions –instructions that controllers are having difficulty delivering, because initial communication was not supposed to take place with the probe at such a low orbit.

If Grunt’s safe mode includes a program that fires thrusters every so often to keep the craft from entering the atmosphere in the event of a malfunction just after reaching low Earth orbit, no statements from Roscosmos have mentioned it, thus far. Whatever the reason, if it continues to occur, we can expect that the predicted date of atmospheric entry will be moved back again, just as it was moved from late December/early November to mid-January after the first orbital correction episode.

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