Hurricane Harvey

[Notebook]

Looks like its gone international:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-...m-harvey-viral-photo-prompts-care-home-rescue

I see the cat in the background managed to not get wet!

N.

 

[RisingFury]

A small bit of good news this morning. The rain over night was not as bad as predicted. Water still rising, but at a slower pace.

The rescue efforts are going decently well, given the circumstances. 911 lines jammed as expected, so people are turning to social media to call for help. Lots of people with their own boats are ferrying people out. Given the size of the population and the circumstances, this could be a lot worse...

Several areas are under curfew and some are being completely evacuated because of rising water.

 

[Quick_Nick]

"800 year flood". There's no way to adequately prepare for that. I'm not sure if a system to handle that is even physically possible.

 

[Urwumpe]

"800 year flood". There's no way to adequately prepare for that. I'm not sure if a system to handle that is even physically possible.

Not really - even if you prepare your drainage system for that flood to occur, all the small details you missed can't be simulated. Cologne for example has a very elaborate Rhine flood plan, but that plan is possibly just good enough to minimize the loss of life in a real record flood, alone because of the time needed to stage all those temporary dams and additional pumps. In a real flood, the water could rise much faster than all fire fighters and emergency relief workers could build the dams.

I think the same scenario happened to Houston: What happened is bad enough, but the Hurricane also does not care for emergency plans or logistics. It simply flooded too fast to react adequately.

 

[RisingFury]

Controlled release of water from several dams and reservoirs is now taking place, which is flooding previously slightly or unflooded areas of Huston. People are being evacuated from these areas.

It's either this or the dams breaking... Authorities are saying that even areas that were dry so far can now be flooded.

Given the scale of the event, I think the rescue operations are going fairly well. The entire Texas National Guard is active, along with lots of volunteers who are moving people to safety.

"800 year flood". There's no way to adequately prepare for that. I'm not sure if a system to handle that is even physically possible.

Such numbers are completely meaningless. We have no records going back 800 years to be able to confirm this. With changing climate taken into account, you simply cannot assess the probability of such events on any given year.

The amount of rain the city got is nuts, but Huston's development has gone unchecked and flooding warnings were not taken into account. Huston has flooded before, but no lessons were learned.

 

[Urwumpe]

We have no records going back 800 years to be able to confirm this.

Not for Houston at least.

OK, this also only goes back by about 762 years, not 800. :lol:

 

[RisingFury]

Addicks reservoir is over-topping, Baker is close behind.

Not for Houston at least.

OK, this also only goes back by about 762 years, not 800. :lol:

Europe and Asia have old-timey records, but US isn't that old.

 

[Artlav]

We have no records going back 800 years to be able to confirm this.

This isn't the point. The point is to call it an event so rare that they could not have possibly prepared for it, instead of owning up to their mistakes and/or complacency.

With changing climate taken into account

Do you seriously expect the current administration to take that into account?

 

[RisingFury]

Columbia Lakes levee has been breached!

Do you seriously expect the current administration to take that into account?

Huston's construction did not start on January 21st, 2017. This is a long standing failure of local and state officials to combat flooding and urban sprawl.

 

[MaverickSawyer]

Houston's construction did not start on January 21st, 2017. This is a long standing failure of local and state officials to combat flooding and urban sprawl.

It doesn't help that the state and local governments are heavily conservative and therefore are much more likely to ignore the warnings of climatologists about the dangers of climate change, which I think is more of what Artlav's angling for here.

 

[Urwumpe]

It doesn't help that the state and local governments are heavily conservative and therefore are much more likely to ignore the warnings of climatologists about the dangers of climate change, which I think is more of what Artlav's angling for here.

I doubt it is that easy. I even think Houston does great so far considering its rather disadvantagous geology (It stands on a loam layer that prevents rain from draining into the ground). I would not even pull climate change into the discussion, because climate change only affects how often such a flooding can happen, not how strong it is. Just consider that the land area is already flooded so much that it powers the Hurricane again and produces new rain for a much longer period of time. This is not normal. This is also no new phenomena, but its the first time it hit Houston.

---------- Post added at 11:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:37 PM ----------

The dam at the Columbia Lakes has been breached, there is only one road left for leaving the region around Angleton.

 

[RisingFury]

Addicks and Baker reservoirs are now over-topping. 3000 more homes were flooded and roads and bridges are starting to collapse. Harvey is now back over the Gulf of Mexico and picking up moisture. It's expected to turn north-east and make another landfall over Louisiana, but it'll still dump another 30 cm of rain on Houston. But winds aren't expected to exceed 80 km/h.

Rain might stop in Houston on Thursday, but it won't be over yet. The soil is saturated, flood control infrastructure is damaged and it'll take another week for the water to drain. After that comes the ecological disaster: Mosquito eggs can survive a long time in dry conditions, then hatch when in contact with water, Lots of animals likely drowned and will now be rotting, sewers overflowed and chemicals leaked into the water - from home stores of detergents, to submerged cars' fuel and oil tanks, to industrial plants and waste...

 

[Andy44]

This is like Jupiter's Great Red Spot, it just doesn't stop.

 

[Artlav]

That's actually an interesting idea - what would it take to get a permanent hurricane on Earth?

Suppose one was able to cross from the Atlantic into Pacific, would it just continue growing before causing biblical floods in Asia, or it does not work that way regardless?

Wind maps are a bit confusing - on one hand there is a jet stream that goes straight to Africa over not much land, on the other hand at altitudes where you can see Harvey the winds blow from the Pacific towards the US and Mexico coasts.

 

[Frilock]

This is like Jupiter's Great Red Spot, it just doesn't stop.

Back in '08 in Florida we had something similar with Tropical Storm Fay.

It was almost a week of solid rain as the storm zig zagged from coast to coast over the peninsula.

Still, even with all that we didn't get this much rain (27.65 inches according to Wikipedia).

 

[DaveS]

That's actually an interesting idea - what would it take to get a permanent hurricane on Earth?

Suppose one was able to cross from the Atlantic into Pacific, would it just continue growing before causing biblical floods in Asia, or it does not work that way regardless?.

Hurricanes doesn't work like that. They feed of the energy of the sea water. Which is why Harvey right now is just a tropical storm instead of the Category 4 hurricane it was when it made land fall. Solid ground drains the life out hurricanes so they lose alot of that wind force whenever they they move over ground.

So a hurricane would have to cross either Africa and North America to get from one ocean to another or in the case of Pacific hurricane, Eurasia.

The problem with Harvey and earlier in 2008 TS Fay, is that they both stalled out with one foot in the water and the other still in the water. It is this combo that makes it drop the large amount of water. It's more or less using one foot to feed the other. And it is moving, just very slowly.

 

[Donamy]

The two highs are steering the low. Just bad timing.

 

[Artlav]

An odd thought i had - what is the net total of lives lost and saved by the hurricane?

It have effectively stopped all the traffic and activity in a region of about 10 million people for days, which on average saves 4 lives per day from dying in traffic accidents. The death toll of the hurricane itself is at what, 14 so far?

It might have saved more lives than it took, paradoxically enough.

Sure, it made millions of lives quite a bit more miserable, but still.

 

[Urwumpe]

Solid ground drains the life out hurricanes so they lose alot of that wind force whenever they they move over ground.

Not that simple: If about 50% of the ground is flooded, it powers the Hurricane as well. That happens with Harvey right now.

 

[RisingFury]

An odd thought i had - what is the net total of lives lost and saved by the hurricane?

It have effectively stopped all the traffic and activity in a region of about 10 million people for days, which on average saves 4 lives per day from dying in traffic accidents. The death toll of the hurricane itself is at what, 14 so far?

It might have saved more lives than it took, paradoxically enough.

Sure, it made millions of lives quite a bit more miserable, but still.

Well, you win the "Horrible thought of the day" award. That being said, the number of dead known so far is 14. There's a possibility that when the waters drain, more will be found...