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Urwumpe

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It is even worse, if you look much closer to the regional maps. Most native Russians live in the bigger cities, surrounded by ethnic Ukrainians in the rural districts. Then, you have ethnic Russian families, speaking Russian, that are absolutely pro-Ukraine. And likely also Ukrainians, who are pro-Russian.

Just looking at where the people came from in the past will be no solution, it is the problem. We need a solution for the next 50 years and not one for the past 50 years. Even a decision to give away Donezk and Luhansk oblast would be OK. But only if Ukraine as whole takes that decision - not under military threat some dictator, not by some timid diplomats from far away. But, lets be realistic there: The only reason I could see, that could make Ukraine decide to give these regions away, would be Russia accepting that the remainder of Ukraine joins NATO and EU as fast as possible - because nobody really can trust Russia in fulfilling international treaties.
 

jedidia

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I might be wrong, I haven't really looked into it that much, but most of the Yugoslav war can be summed up as 'christian old-school Serbia going to town on their muslim neighbouring country
It's a lot more complex, really. Neither Serbia nor Bosnia (nor Croatia nor Slovenia) existed as nations at the time. It was all Jugoslavia. But by the time the war came around, Almost all Jugoslavian state functions were controlled by people that identified as Serbs, and they decided that it would be a grand idea to officially rebrand the whole of Jugoslavia as "Greater Serbia", and kick out most of what could now be considered "foreigners". Foreigners being anybody not a member of the Orthodox church, obviously. Not because they were especially religious, but because how else are you going to tell people apart if there's no nationality and everybody's language is more similar than half german dialects (Not including Slovenian - Slovenian actually has significant differences).
So, yeah, you can call them christians, you're not wrong... you could also call them fascists, that would also not be wrong (refering to the serbian ideology of the time, and anybody still holding it, not Serbs in general. Just to be clear.)
 

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Well Russians have doused the whole meeting thing in cold water saying there are no concrete plans for anything like that at the moment and now they've claimed that five 'Ukrainian saboteurs' attempted an incursion into Russian territory and got killed in the process after the FSB border guards requested assistance from the army. Also the leader of DPR has just requested financial and military aid from Russia so there's that too.
There's set to be an unscheduled meeting of Russia's Security Council later today as well.
 

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Right now it seems what Putin wants is to make the current hazardous situation last as much as possible. Not really sure what is going on given having all those vehicles and troops moving and "on alert" is certainly costing a lot to the Russian state which already wasn't that rich. And an embargo over that would mean economical death for Russia and really nasty energy prices in Europe. ?

Well maybe he'll restore communism and SSSR :unsure:
 

Urwumpe

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Right now it seems what Putin wants is to make the current hazardous situation last as much as possible. Not really sure what is going on given having all those vehicles and troops moving and "on alert" is certainly costing a lot to the Russian state which already wasn't that rich. And an embargo over that would mean economical death for Russia and really nasty energy prices in Europe. ?

Well maybe he'll restore communism and SSSR :unsure:

Maybe he attempts an inverse Bel-Air.
 

N_Molson

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Maybe he attempts an inverse Bel-Air.

Which already exists, this is pretty much Pyongyang ?

Well it seems that Putin is putting on the table an "independent" Dombass-Crimea... :unsure:

Update : satellite pictures seem to show that the tanks parking lots are now mostly empty... the question is where are all those tanks ? :unsure:
 
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Urwumpe

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Update : satellite pictures seem to show that the tanks parking lots are now mostly empty... the question is where are all those tanks ? :unsure:

Here:
1280px-Berkovets_forest4.jpg
 

steph

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Looks like quite aa few 'strategic' stuff got blown up in Luhansk, including a few bridges and a power station., thus leaving many without power and/or drinking water. The usual 'the other side did it' coming from both sides. Though if they really plan on invading, I'm not sure they'd want the bridges blown up.

Refugee situation getting quite dramatic in the Rostov area (a bit of a side-effect of attacking pro-russin regions), supposedly with plans to send some of them to other parts of Russia, including Murmansk.

Putin had a big ' meeting' about recognizing the two republics' independence, with the FSB chief possibly accidentally dropping the ball by saying he fully supported attatching them to Russia, before correcting himself and saying he supports their independence.

There's a supposed false flag involving ukrainians in Rostov. Apparently two ukrainian armored units getting shot by the russians, but it doesn' makes any sense. It's literally in RUssian territory, behind the rebel republics. They'd literally have to just stroll through enemy lines, full ukrainian colours and all, towards the russian army.

Quite an interesting development is the russian jurnalistic movement with the hashtag of 'not keeping quiet', anti-war and popularizing the links and firendship that normal russians have with ukrainians. Depending on what story they're working at ( no pun intended); some may have a hard landing . This might be one of the ways that the russian propaganda might backfire. You can try antagonizing a people, but given the closeness of the Ukrainians to the Russians, a simple phonecall between relatives would be enough to call bulls**it on all the disinformation

Edit: looks like the Russian troops in Transdniester (russian enclave sandwiched between Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova) are doing live fire exercises. If they start moving, it's unclear which way they'd go. The obvious response would be Ukraine, especially if they want to landlock it, but it could also be Moldova, which has basically no army and recently voted for a pro-EU government bent on getting rid of the former communist past. Then again, Moldova has or had until recently , russian troops on its soil anyway. (a proof of how hard it is to get them to leave, even decades after the fall of the USSR).
 
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N_Molson

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Quite an interesting development is the russian jurnalistic movement with the hashtag of 'not keeping quiet', anti-war and popularizing the links and firendship that normal russians have with ukrainians.

This is how people end up with plutonium in their blood. Accidents happen, you know... :sick:
 

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Defenestration is a very popular sport in Russia these days as well.
 

N_Molson

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OK Putin just officially said that separatist Dombass and Crimea are independent.

That with all those tanks in the woods... The idea would be to extend those "red" separatist areas to the white areas (reconquered by Ukraine those last years). But ukrainian armed forces are ready for it, that's the scenario they are expecting from day one. Russia would lose too many tanks for such a "small" landgrab. Guerilla tactics are more likely.

Ukraine.png

Update : Putin is currently making a speech.
  • first part is an history lesson on the beginnings of CCCP and how "bolcheviks (Lenin) created Ukraine in a brutal fashion".
  • now he says that "sadly, the communist party leaders never, as usual, thought to the future" and that "the evil of nationalisms eventually caused the fall of SSSR".
  • he says that Ukrainian nationalists used "stalinian political tools" to rule (he refers to the political structures).
  • the current situation is the result of a failure from the Communist Party and SSSR.
  • he says that Ukraine lived a lot on SSSR debt, and kept more than it should have after the collapse. Ukraine "stole the natural gas" in the 1990's.
  • nationalists in Donetsk and Luhansk "are like neo-nazis", "not unlike what happened in northern Georgia". Those people were encouraged by a weak ukrainian government, and they grew bolder and bolder. They were funded by "oligarch's money", in Ukraine "corruption is everywhere, at all state levels".
  • Violence and "pogroms" became common in ukrainian villages, people were "burnt alive".
  • Those last years "millions of ukrainians had to seek for work in Europe, often underpaid". The economy is in a terrible state. Ukraine sacked Tsarist then Sovietic heirloom. The industrial tools are in decay, the Antonov factories were closed, steel, etc... The gas pipelines are "obsolete" and "a danger for environment".
  • "There's nothing independent" in Ukraine, weak laws let foreign countries take advantage of the corruption (USA was mentionned). "Ukraine is a colony" with "puppets as leaders".
  • Lately it is forbidden even to talk russian in stores, in schools, there's nothing like freedom of speech. "It is worse than in western countries". The Orthodox Church is persecuted. In Crimea there are abduction of russian citizens, sometimes using "islamic groups as proxys".
  • Ukrainian forces have been armed by the western countries, and "there is a suspicion that they kept a secret stockpile of tactical nukes from Soviet era, or want to acquire them through other countries". Since 2014 "USA are spending billions of dollars arming Ukraine". There are NATO troops in Ukraine using the pretext of tactical drills.
  • "Odessa, Mariupol" airports are gateways for american reinforcements.
  • Soviet statues are removed, "this is an attempt to rewrite history, a colonial history".
  • And now Ukraine openly talks about joining NATO, even when some western countries are sceptical about it. "NATO as a defensive alliance is a lie", it is a way to attack Russia.
  • In 2000, when Putin asked Bill Clinton how he would react if Russia joined NATO, "he was embarassed". The current situation has nothing to do with Russian politics, but is caused by USA foreign policy. NATO expanded in eastern Europe in "5 waves", and is now at the gates of Russia. "Tomahawks missiles" are getting deployed in Romania, as well as "SM-6".
  • The threat is growing for Russia, a "pre-emptive first strike" would make sense with the american war policy. Tactical missiles deployed in Ukraine would reach Russia's heartland, and russian cities will be at 35 minutes from Tomahawks.
  • "Russia made everythig in vain", the ukrainian regime is still the same.
  • Russia will back up the separatists.
 
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clipper

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So far all this speech is done is show why Russians must never be appeased and why most of eastern NATO member states will always look with suspicion towards western EU attempts to reach a 'compromise' with Russia.

This isn't about NATO or its expansion, this is hardcore historical revisionism denying the history and existence of an entire nation and claiming they're nothing but results of stolen Russian territory.
 

steph

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Foreigners being anybody not a member of the Orthodox church, obviously. Not because they were especially religious, but because how else are you going to tell people apart if there's no nationality and everybody's language is more similar than half german dialects (Not including Slovenian - Slovenian actually has significant differences).
So, yeah, you can call them christians, you're not wrong... you could also call them fascists, that would also not be wrong (refering to the serbian ideology of the time, and anybody still holding it, not Serbs in general. Just to be clear.)

Don't get me going about orthodoxy. I don't know if I identify as atheist or just agnostic coming from a christian background, but most of what I've seen of it is state-fueled nationalist propaganda machine. And I know that historically they're a religion and that the catholics had the Inquisition and such, but all the way up to the 1800s, for centuries, the Orthodox church had slaves. And nowadays they openly support right wing hate groups etc. If there ever were a christian religion that could go all extremist like the jihadis, it's them
This isn't about NATO or its expansion, this is hardcore historical revisionism denying the history and existence of an entire nation and claiming they're nothing but results of stolen Russian territory.

It's a bit like the ' don't negociate with terrorists thing'. Depending on how sane they and their circle of influence are, it might embolden them. In Putin's case, the west being in 'appeasing' mode for the last decade or so, he might think he can have his way with Ukraine then even attack NATO to drive them out of Europe. It doesn't mean he'll be able to, but he can try and that alone will cause many thousands of deaths that a tougher stance on Russia might have prevented.
 

N_Molson

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This isn't about NATO or its expansion, this is hardcore historical revisionism denying the history and existence of an entire nation and claiming they're nothing but results of stolen Russian territory.

Yes this is the big problem. It stinks. ?
 

Thunder Chicken

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The next new moon is March 2nd where the nights will be nice and dark. After February 28 moon rise will occur about or after dawn in Ukraine. If Russia wishes to utilize the cover of night for an attack that would be the start of the next useful window.

 

N_Molson

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Russian President Vladimir Putin Signs The Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic As Sovereign States - Russian President Vladimir Putin has now officially singed the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic as sovereign states. The papers are now officially signed, and the Russian stock market futures are now crashing. As of 26 minutes ago at the time of writing this, the futures had plummeted 21% as Putin was speaking on Ukraine during the live address.
 
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