Discussion The space launch system launch date is for the year after next

[N_Molson]

I don't think that the development of that kind of hardware is the worst part. Also it seems a good idea to set priorities : first the launcher, then the spacecraft itself, then the modules. Else you end spending money on a lot of fine ground-tested hardware that will at best end in a museum. Its also why it takes so much time : they can't develop the whole program in parallel just as it was the case for Apollo, as they simply don't have the money. And, who knows, if the geopolitical situation was to change in the 10 next years, international cooperation could still play a role : Russia has a long experience of habitation modules.

 

[barrygolden]

well I like the SLS but NASA doesn't seem to have much of a program for it. with Apollo they had a goal and a date set. Constellation had goals and some dates , that's what the Ride report said, you need stated goals and a time frame to make this happen. I don't see that here with the SLS. I hear through NASA that 2019 date that was 2018 might slip to early 2021.

---------- Post added at 10:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:17 PM ----------

I know the Gateway station is a hi priority at NASA and I really think that the Base Camp would make a great Mars Transfer vehicle. I don't think there's much chance of landing a six story building on Mars but I do see a modified Orion with a heat shield and a landing stage like the MAV from the 60's as the manned lander

 

[richfororbit]

The mission is to send a crew to orbit the planet, not land. Eventually a landing would take place after.

As for the rocket, well that is the engine that will get that crew to Mars, so it is the work horse.

 

[barrygolden]

I meant the Mars Excursion Module or " MEM " for the lander

 

[Urwumpe]

I meant the Mars Excursion Module or " MEM " for the lander

Well, maybe they should try a Mars Utility Module first?

 

[barrygolden]

A friend a JSC shared with me the current SLS plan through EM 5 the Second flight is waiting for the Europa orbiter EM 2 - EM 5 would launch and deploy the Gateway Station. During the Columbia investigation Sally Ride did a presentation that showed really good color grafts of why the Constellation program would fail do to funding of course it was after a billion dollars were spent. Maybe we need those chats now to show us if this will work or its just another Space Station Freedom.

 

[richfororbit]

The Astronaut Mrs Ride? She died back in 2012.

She produced an analysis of why the constellation program couldn't succeed you mean?

The current program is on the road. I think it needs given the chance to succeed. Definitely got a congress funding it till next midterm, as hopefully to the end of this government term, who knows beyond.

I think private space flight to Mars will happen much later.

 

[PhantomCruiser]

The CAIB report was completed in 2006

 

[DaveS]

The CAIB report was completed in 2006

I think you mean 2003, August 2003 specifically when the final report was issued. NASA themselves issued a STS-107 crew survival report in December 2008 but that one had nothing to do with the CAIB which dissolved itself once the final report had been issued.

 

[barrygolden]

I went back and looked at plans for Apollo and those guys figured out that multiple launches cost way to much money so they found a way with the Saturn 5.

Space Station Freedom was too cost 8 billion and take 10 years. After the money was spent and the 10 years were up all the US tax payer got were paint samples and computer generated pictures.

I think NASA need to go back and look at their first plan or the Gateway with a single launch, that might happen. 5 launches in 15 to 20 years I don't think that will ever fly. it will be obsolete before the last piece launches.

 

[4throck]

Agreed. That's why a large rocket makes sense. The core module(s) can go up, and you get an operational station from the first launch.

After that, you can add smaller modules on smaller rockets, depending on funds. But your station is always operational.

 

[richfororbit]

Hmm I read on the NASA site, that the launch for the first rocket launch is going to be two years from now, could be 2020 at the latest.

So a crewed flight in 2023.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-completes-review-of-first-sls-orion-deep-space-exploration-mission

So I imagine a Mars mission ten years later, or at least thirteen or fourteen, an orbit around Mars using this rocket. I don't think its too negative.

 

[Andy44]

Timeline is too long. Sorry to repeat myself, but like I said 10 years ago on this very forum (wow, long time, eh?) with regards to Constellation: As soon as there is a new president or a major turnover in Congress this thing will get shelved. Just my hunch. I may be wrong.

 

[barrygolden]

Apollo was planned for 10 years and it reached that goal. later flights were spaced out to one about every 6 months. the shuttle even though it slipped 2 years still flew but any program 20 to 30 years out will never fly

 

[richfororbit]

I think we have to give the congress the chance. More the benefit of the doubt, that they will ride this program.

Nobody can suggest that private space flight will get a crew to Mars soon, it will be twenty five years from now, I am sure. Something has got to happen here with this, otherwise, it keeps engineers employed, but it then doesn't get a mission to the planet.

The government will get there first, after that it depends on the legislatures of the future to determine if setting up an outpost will happen or not, I don't think it will happen. Could be a landing, that is certainly in the 2040's, and 50's, could even be into the early 2060's.

 

[barrygolden]

Maybe a test flight of a Plasma engine should be carried on an early flight. it would be nice to see an engine that might get us to mars in 30 days are so.

 

[GLS]

This Is How NASA Covers Up SLS Software Safety Issues

"These people have been for a long time (and still are) continuously ignoring or not properly addressing FSW Safety related observations and findings and unethically do not disclose issues to the upper management in order to show a virtual progress in order to keep their jobs. Anyone with years of experience and integrity to Safety can see through these imposters just like I did."

Scary stuff behind the scenes... wouldn't be suprised if SLS ended up doing this:
[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCnO-UYF3co"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCnO-UYF3co[/ame]

 

[Urwumpe]

Well, I can understand that its possible to have tests forced upon you that you can't perform without violating something else. But that would be another unresolved issue in the end. Generally, the letter reads plausible from a software developer side. I already had to do the same ugly decisions as he did and it required good fire-proofing afterwards.

I don't want to get too much into it, because it only represents one side of the issue. I also know that the software development of the SLS is NOTHING comparable to previous projects, so somebody should not feel too attached to the past. Still, the standards of quality are not dropping because you are developing in an agile process. You just have to automatize them way more than you did in the past and checking the automatized tests for sanity and utility is getting more important than testing manually. I would also not exclude that somebody with a veteran experience in previous waterfall style projects is not adapting easily to a world without such project plans.

 

[4throck]

On the Ariane video, it's funny to hear "normal trajectory, all normal" after the rocket exploded!

OK, the video feed may be out of sync with the sound, but still...
Seems like the "let's not raise any problems" mentality taken to the fullest extent.

I have no clue about software safety, but I wonder how the Saturn V code would rank
Well, the LEM computed did stop working during landings, and it was considered safe!

Oddly enough the shuttle was checked, rechecked, evaluated, refurbished, whatever and had serious problems...
So I don't see much more here than tabloid / social media speculation.

On SLS they can't go wrong with a capsule + LES, it's not exactly new tech.
As long as it's well built (heat-shield in place, parachutes open, LES fires, etc) it will always come down in relative safety... :lol:

 

[PhantomCruiser]

Well, as someone who works in a chilled work environment (WBN has been in deep doodoo with the NRC for quite some time), the inability to bring up safety issues (for fear of reprisal) can be very real. If the paycheck is your livelyhood you tend to keep your mouth shut. Pass the data on so the upper mucky-mucks can massage the numbers to their liking. And in all cases CYA.