You try very hard to be realistic
For what I love SpaceX is that they try to do what others say is impossible and give a hope for a true space faring humanity, and they are on track to accomplish this and to realize my dream - live in times when humans are walking on another planet.
Honestly I don't see humans walking on Mars before, let's say, 2050 or 2070. But maybe I'm too pessimistic here. I agree with the need of dreams, and in these terms must be taken the Musk "plan": a dream. In reality, you need small steps. You can want to run, but before you must learn to stand up and walk.
Musk shows to us his dreams as countless people before him. Only, this time, with good PR and CGI that give the illusion of an handy reality.
There is much in their plans that looks crazy and it may be that this will never happen, but they are trying and already made significant progress.
Surely, but the only real improvement (the reuse of F9 first stages) still must proven feasible economically.
Beside this:
F9 second stage recovery and Dragon 1 propulsive landing (another beautiful CGI): never implemented
Falcon 5: cancelled
Falcon Heavy: 4 years behind schedule and with propellant crossfeed cancelled
Dragon service: nothing more than the things already achieved with Soyuz and Progress. In some regards, NASA with Gemini in the sixties achieved some goals that have yet to be replicated today by current LEO capsules.
Speaking again of "plans": at least the conceptual Mars mission using the Constellation hardware showed some launch vehicles that, at the time, was in real development, and using current or near-term technology, not colonization ships with crews of 100+ and the stained glass of the Chartres Cathedral on the nose.
That other presentation was way more exciting to me.
You think that ITS is hilarious? I don't see other ways of creating a self-sustaining settlements on Mars in this century.
Firstly we should talk about the rationale of a big settlement on Mars in this century. For example: we have already decided that Mars is without life, or suddenly it don't matter and we can contaminate it with Earth lifeforms?
And look, that video shows absolutely
nothing about "creating a self-sustaining settlement". It shows an hatch that opens... aaand cut.
About ITS: When other companies proposes big rockets, they were costantly derided (NASA and SLS included). This is the typical reaction:
"No more need for big rockets! Let's go with fuel depots and 20-tons class launchers!!".
But If the idea comes from Musk (that also not only proposes a super heavy LV, but a super-super-super-heavy LV) it suddenly became a brilliant idea? Oh, come on. This is not fair.
I think that people need to dream and do "hilarious" things. Trying to be realistic is a dead end for humanity in my opinion.
Forgive a little provocation: with a similar approach, NASA would have built Nova 8L, tried direct ascent to the Moon, and maybe killed some crew in the process.
So, Go SpaceX, Go Blue Origin! Even if you fail, you already made my life better, by making me dream and love spaceflight again and by giving us hope.
Yeah, go USA. And, meanwhile, NASA is forced to buy other Soyuz seats because private ventures dreams about Mars... and still have problems to certify their space capsules... for LEO.
I don't want to be hated here... I'm only trying to mantain low expectations until something more concrete will be realized.