Launch News SpaceX to send privately crewed Dragon spacecraft around the Moon in 2018

[K_Jameson]

You think that ITS is hilarious?

Yeah.
A big rocket coming from nowhere
big spaceship coming from nowhere (with big, cathedral-like stained glass! :lol: )
A clip that don't show us what the hell the crew will do after the landing. Of how it will come back.
42 engines... are you kidding me? The designer must be Douglas Adams.
All of this reusable... so many times?

Musk It's not the discoverer of Mars; Mars mission was dreamed for decades, before his birth, often with less sci-fi and a more credible approach.

That video was only for gather - desperately - attention.

 

[Urwumpe]

You think that ITS is hilarious? I don't see other ways of creating a self-sustaining settlements on Mars in this century.

Well, I see alternatives there. Maybe even better alternatives.

But it sure isn't hilarious for a first order design... just still a bit far away from reality.

 

[K_Jameson]

You try very hard to be realistic
For what I love SpaceX is that they try to do what others say is impossible and give a hope for a true space faring humanity, and they are on track to accomplish this and to realize my dream - live in times when humans are walking on another planet.

Honestly I don't see humans walking on Mars before, let's say, 2050 or 2070. But maybe I'm too pessimistic here. I agree with the need of dreams, and in these terms must be taken the Musk "plan": a dream. In reality, you need small steps. You can want to run, but before you must learn to stand up and walk.
Musk shows to us his dreams as countless people before him. Only, this time, with good PR and CGI that give the illusion of an handy reality.

There is much in their plans that looks crazy and it may be that this will never happen, but they are trying and already made significant progress.

Surely, but the only real improvement (the reuse of F9 first stages) still must proven feasible economically.

Beside this:
F9 second stage recovery and Dragon 1 propulsive landing (another beautiful CGI): never implemented
Falcon 5: cancelled
Falcon Heavy: 4 years behind schedule and with propellant crossfeed cancelled
Dragon service: nothing more than the things already achieved with Soyuz and Progress. In some regards, NASA with Gemini in the sixties achieved some goals that have yet to be replicated today by current LEO capsules.

Speaking again of "plans": at least the conceptual Mars mission using the Constellation hardware showed some launch vehicles that, at the time, was in real development, and using current or near-term technology, not colonization ships with crews of 100+ and the stained glass of the Chartres Cathedral on the nose.
That other presentation was way more exciting to me.

You think that ITS is hilarious? I don't see other ways of creating a self-sustaining settlements on Mars in this century.

Firstly we should talk about the rationale of a big settlement on Mars in this century. For example: we have already decided that Mars is without life, or suddenly it don't matter and we can contaminate it with Earth lifeforms?
And look, that video shows absolutely nothing about "creating a self-sustaining settlement". It shows an hatch that opens... aaand cut.

About ITS: When other companies proposes big rockets, they were costantly derided (NASA and SLS included). This is the typical reaction: "No more need for big rockets! Let's go with fuel depots and 20-tons class launchers!!".

But If the idea comes from Musk (that also not only proposes a super heavy LV, but a super-super-super-heavy LV) it suddenly became a brilliant idea? Oh, come on. This is not fair.

I think that people need to dream and do "hilarious" things. Trying to be realistic is a dead end for humanity in my opinion.

Forgive a little provocation: with a similar approach, NASA would have built Nova 8L, tried direct ascent to the Moon, and maybe killed some crew in the process.

So, Go SpaceX, Go Blue Origin! Even if you fail, you already made my life better, by making me dream and love spaceflight again and by giving us hope.

Yeah, go USA. And, meanwhile, NASA is forced to buy other Soyuz seats because private ventures dreams about Mars... and still have problems to certify their space capsules... for LEO.

I don't want to be hated here... I'm only trying to mantain low expectations until something more concrete will be realized.

 

[barrygolden]

I wonder what Von Braum dreamed of ? Maybe when he came up against a wall while building the V 2 he took his hat and threw it over and figured away to go over the wall.
if he had been charged with war crimes as he should have been would we have walked on the moon yet ? May be big dreams leads to big deeds.
NASA at one time took big risk, see John Glenn. Had Apollo 4 blown up were would we be in the moon race today. The Eagle made of tin foil made the moon landing. STS 1 was truly a miracle. Today their motto seems take no risk and blame others when it fails.
For the last 8 years we have seen NASA centers become amusement parks, were just waiting on the kiddy rides. good riddance General Bolden.
We have sent enough money to get to Mars on commissions and reports and they all have come back and said NASA needs a firm goal and a robust program. " No bucks, No Buck Rodgers" there we go blame congress. Lets try to build 2 rockets out of used parts for the price of three rockets. " see Constellation" job well done collect pension and move to Fisher Island .
So now we have the computer generated movies of SLS. " see space Station Freedom" Lets take what parts we have and space out the flights so far that by the time we are suppose to launch this thing we can draw our pension and move to Fisher Island. Blame someone else, job well done.
Unless Trump hires Elon Musk to head NASA I doubt any one will ride the SLS in our life time. I wonder if there's any room left on Fisher Island

---------- Post added at 01:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:32 PM ----------

As a young boy I waited for the launch of Freedom 7 while watching a black and white TV. I fell in love with space and have the passion for manned flight still today. Orbiter seems to be a way to see my dreams come alive and all you guys who build this addons are my hero's.
I try to give ideas that give the SLS/MPCV a robust flight plan and you guys are working to make that come true. thanks for all you do

 

[Urwumpe]

Unless Trump hires Elon Musk to head NASA I doubt any one will ride the SLS in our life time.

Seriously: No. No. Never.

Elon Musk? Seriously? He is a startup CEO, no administrator. Completely the wrong character for the job. You need somebody rather boring for that, but with a HUGE political network. Ideally with an engineering background. Sadly, there is no such qualified person around.

The few engineers in US federal politics are sadly concentrated in the Democratic party, so no realistic chance. Also they all lack the necessary network. That is also where my knowledge of US politics starts to show huge gaps.

A rather interesting candidate could be John McCain. US politics experts might now call me nuts, especially regarding his age, but he has a pretty good background for leading a spaceflight agency with a manned spaceflight program. He is used to getting into conflict with his superiors and has a strong protective character for his peers, which is a pretty important trait for a NASA administrator. Also, he has the huge political network among the two parties to make important deals with those who decide over NASA budgets. His hot temperament might make him a bad boss for soft NASA engineers though.

So, please correct me if I missed some many interesting candidates there, I am no US citizen and usually only care about US politics when the smoke goes up on the western horizon.

 

[K_Jameson]

I wonder what Von Braum dreamed of ? Maybe when he came up against a wall while building the V 2 he took his hat and threw it over and figured away to go over the wall.
if he had been charged with war crimes as he should have been would we have walked on the moon yet ? May be big dreams leads to big deeds.
NASA at one time took big risk, see John Glenn. Had Apollo 4 blown up were would we be in the moon race today. The Eagle made of tin foil made the moon landing. STS 1 was truly a miracle. Today their motto seems take no risk and blame others when it fails.
For the last 8 years we have seen NASA centers become amusement parks, were just waiting on the kiddy rides. good riddance General Bolden.
We have sent enough money to get to Mars on commissions and reports and they all have come back and said NASA needs a firm goal and a robust program. " No bucks, No Buck Rodgers" there we go blame congress. Lets try to build 2 rockets out of used parts for the price of three rockets. " see Constellation" job well done collect pension and move to Fisher Island .
So now we have the computer generated movies of SLS. " see space Station Freedom" Lets take what parts we have and space out the flights so far that by the time we are suppose to launch this thing we can draw our pension and move to Fisher Island. Blame someone else, job well done.
Unless Trump hires Elon Musk to head NASA I doubt any one will ride the SLS in our life time. I wonder if there's any room left on Fisher Island

I must remind you that NASA, and not SpaceX, has sent a space capsule intended for men beyond low earth orbit for the first time in forty years.

You guys trust too much in a single man.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

Well, I see alternatives there. Maybe even better alternatives.

But it sure isn't hilarious for a first order design... just still a bit far away from reality.

Back in the day, engineering office ergonomics dictated that there be a large trash can situated near each drawing board. First design iterations can be hilariously dumb, but they are an important step toward the eventual product. For a while designers need to dream and make pictures and smack their foreheads with brilliant insights and less than brilliant mistakes.

I think the only problem is that SpaceX is allowing marketing to rummage through their trashcans and make flashy animations of their design iterations. Some will be inspired, some will smirk, but there is no harm done in the end.

 

[Pipcard]

I also had and still have skepticism about ITS.

But in the end, I would rather be excited about a potential expansion in space activity.

Also,

Beside this:
F9 second stage recovery and Dragon 1 propulsive landing (another beautiful CGI): never implemented

Because they wanted to focus development work on the ITS and Dragon 2 propulsive landing.

Falcon 5: cancelled

Because they found out that Falcon 9 would be able to fill that market need - apparently having an extra configuration in between would lead to extra costs in certification, ground support, manufacturing, etc.

Falcon Heavy: 4 years behind schedule and with propellant crossfeed cancelled

Because crossfeed was thought to add too much complexity to the system, making the payload gain not worth it. (but at the time I was making my fictional M-II rocket, it wasn't thought to be an issue)

 

[Urwumpe]

Back in the day, engineering office ergonomics dictated that there be a large trash can situated near each drawing board. First design iterations can be hilariously dumb, but they are an important step toward the eventual product. For a while designers need to dream and make pictures and smack their foreheads with brilliant insights and less than brilliant mistakes.

I think the only problem is that SpaceX is allowing marketing to rummage through their trashcans and make flashy animations of their design iterations. Some will be inspired, some will smirk, but there is no harm done in the end.

Well, even NASA used first order designs for marketing purposes. Such things are done, later all might laugh about it, but it turns out well.

And seriously, I hope somebody makes some good meshes for the ICTS, so we can have this space battleship in Orbiter. Who doesn't want to pilot the mass of the ISS to Mars? We have some Star Trek designs here as well, launching a Gothic cathedral shouldn't cause more harm. :lol:


Unless somebody starts adding WH40K stuff after seeing too many Gothic cathedrals launching........... :crystalball:

 

[barrygolden]

There are no US political experts just hacks. John McCain is an interesting choice. He is truly and American hero for his 6 year sacrifice as a POW trapped in HELL. As a US senator he has been a disgrace to the people who elected him by being wishy washy and weak when standing up for whats right. Maybe another aviation leader would be more suited, one who has a track record of getting things done. Elon Musk might not be that guy. He was able to create billons of dollars out of thin air with something we all use today to revolutionize the world banking system to trying to wean us from fossil fuels and there for save the ice for the Polar Bears " see Al Gore " and stand up against the US DOD and there fat cat contractors all who live on Fisher Island and collect millions in bonus's at tax payer expense.
No your right my boss is the wrong guy for the job. Maybe there is another German from the past who could step in and finish Von Braum dream of a trip to Mars. hey do yall " yeah I'm a Texan " have a Fisher Island over there ? How bout Herman Goering ? Now that's a guy who can get things done. he was a aviator, ran advanced projects, had big dreams and made things happen. He also has connections in Poland for low cost labor.
Ok I'm sorry, I see the flag. your right Elon Musk is not the guy but he does have the dream that Von Braum had and is making it happen even though NASA is funding him instead of using the money to do the great things
NASA is no going to do anything to take a risk of loss of life. If the dragon 2 or starliner crash or blow up they'll blame space x or boeing and tell us there on top of it and heads will roll.
I don't know who has the passion and the dream to get great things done right now

 

[Linguofreak]

The situation is a bit different between the two cases: regarding SLS-1, NASA has been asked to investigate the feasibility of having astronauts fly on it, but there's a certain skepticism because this would be the rocket's first flight at all.

Regarding the SpaceX flight, an official announcement has already been made, and this is not scheduled to be the first flight for Dragon2 or the F9-Heavy launche vehicle, so from this point of view it seems feasible. SpaceX also is approaching the point of being consistently able to recover first stages, another proposition that at the time encountered a lot of skepticism.

The fact that this cislunar flight shouldn't require brand new hardware, as opposed to the accomplished feat of first-stage recovery, also contributes to making this plan seems feasible to me.

What does indeed strike me as unfeasible is the timeline: F9H will need to launch a couple of times, Dragon2 too, and this is before any manned mission even only to LEO and this not with tourists as the only crew.

If I had to bet I'd say that the flight is going to happen, just not in 2018.

Another very significant thing about the SpaceX case that hasn't been mentioned on the thread yet is that, if I'm reading Wikipedia right, SpaceX didn't just come up with the idea and go looking for volunteers: they were approached by volunteers who came up with the idea for the mission. So I don't think SpaceX is being quite as foolhardy as some people seem to think. For a company in SpaceX's position I can imagine that this would be a very difficult opportunity to turn down.

 

[Urwumpe]

How bout Herman Goering ?

Well, if you want to exchange bad jokes...

A very potent rooster is send as foreign aid to Africa. Very quickly, he is done with all the hens in his district, without getting tired, he also breeds with the flamingos and pelicans, until finally getting to the storks.

One morning, a hen sees him lying upside down in the sand, immobile and lifeless. Grieving, she goes to him, but then the not-so-dead-rooster hisses: "Go away, you are ruining it with the vultures".

 

[richfororbit]

Perhaps the Space Exploration company should send the module off to the moon first, and then include a crew on the next flight.

 

[MaverickSawyer]

Seriously: No. No. Never.

Elon Musk? Seriously? He is a startup CEO, no administrator. Completely the wrong character for the job. You need somebody rather boring for that, but with a HUGE political network. Ideally with an engineering background. Sadly, there is no such qualified person around.

The few engineers in US federal politics are sadly concentrated in the Democratic party, so no realistic chance. Also they all lack the necessary network. That is also where my knowledge of US politics starts to show huge gaps.

A rather interesting candidate could be John McCain. US politics experts might now call me nuts, especially regarding his age, but he has a pretty good background for leading a spaceflight agency with a manned spaceflight program. He is used to getting into conflict with his superiors and has a strong protective character for his peers, which is a pretty important trait for a NASA administrator. Also, he has the huge political network among the two parties to make important deals with those who decide over NASA budgets. His hot temperament might make him a bad boss for soft NASA engineers though.

So, please correct me if I missed some many interesting candidates there, I am no US citizen and usually only care about US politics when the smoke goes up on the western horizon.

At the risk of treading into the Basement, McCain should be our Secretary of Defense, if not President. He'd be wasted at NASA.

 

[barrygolden]

Ok I'll bite, what is about Sen McCain that I'm missing ?

 

[vchamp]

A big rocket coming from nowhere

Falcon 9 came from nowhere and it's one of the best rockets today. SpaceX came from nowhere and look where they are now, after only 14 years.

with big, cathedral-like stained glass!

It's an architecture, not the final design. Even if it will have no big windows at all, who cares?

A clip that don't show us what the hell the crew will do after the landing.

SpaceX's goal is to create the transportation system. It's someone's else task to build a colony.

42 engines... are you kidding me?

Falcon Heavy will have 27, not much less. We'll see.. hopefully this summer.

That video was only for gather - desperately - attention.

I don't mind some PR, don't see anything bad in it, vice versa, I like that SpaceX is so open and we have access to all this information about their plans and progress.

Musk shows to us his dreams as countless people before him. Only, this time, with good PR and CGI that give the illusion of an handy reality.

He accomplished very significant goals unlike countless people before him, who could only dream. Landing orbital rockets is not an illusion.

Surely, but the only real improvement (the reuse of F9 first stages) still must proven feasible economically.

They performed full duration test fires of a landed booster somewhere around 8 times, so engines must have no problem flying multiple times. Structural endurance is something that needs to be proven but they are currently finishing the final iteration of Falcon 9, Block 5, so they should be pretty confident that no significant changes will be required. Only maintenance costs can be an obstacle for economical feasibility.

Speaking again of "plans": at least the conceptual Mars mission using the Constellation hardware showed some launch vehicles that, at the time, was in real development, and using current or near-term technology

ITS is already in development and work on this architecture started 5 years ago. Also I don't think that ITS will use any technology that is not available today.

stained glass of the Chartres Cathedral on the nose

... Yeah, we should deny ITS just because of the big nose window... /s

Firstly we should talk about the rationale of a big settlement on Mars in this century.

Some day we will have to do this. We won't start to stars from Earth. So why wait..

When other companies proposes big rockets, they were costantly derided (NASA and SLS included). This is the typical reaction: "No more need for big rockets! Let's go with fuel depots and 20-tons class launchers!!".

May be because they had other goals, like land a man on Moon before soviet union.

Yeah, go USA.

If italian companies did this, I would say Go Italia, no doubts. And I am not american, not even closely.

NASA is forced to buy other Soyuz seats because private ventures dreams about Mars... and still have problems to certify their space capsules... for LEO.

SpaceX is almost fully focused on finishing Falcon 9 and Dragon certification now. It shouldn't prevent them from dreaming about Mars. This is why this company exists after all.


Sorry for not being on topic and for the big post. I just felt that this forum is often too negative towards SpaceX... That's said, I want to thank addon authors who created Falcon and Dragon vehicles for Orbiter. However I'm a little disappointed in a lack of interest to Dragon 2 and ITS. Unfortunately I'm too busy to create this addons myself, but I would do it with great pleasure if I had a time.

 

[K_Jameson]

Falcon 9 came from nowhere and it's one of the best rockets today.

Well, except the fact it exploded two times in 14 months. To be compared with Atlas V and Ariane 5 statistics. But I haven't nothing against Falcon 9 (though I absolutely don't like the entire concept of the returning booster, but it's me). It's a good guy, only needs to be disciplined a little more.

SpaceX's goal is to create the transportation system. It's someone's else task to build a colony.

The statement "I don't see other ways of creating a self-sustaining settlements" was yours. I've only replied at this: in this regard, the video shows nothing.

Falcon Heavy will have 27, not much less. We'll see.. hopefully this summer.

The joke wasn't about the high number of engines, but about that specific number.

They performed full duration test fires of a landed booster somewhere around 8 times, so engines must have no problem flying multiple times. Structural endurance is something that needs to be proven but they are currently finishing the final iteration of Falcon 9, Block 5, so they should be pretty confident that no significant changes will be required. Only maintenance costs can be an obstacle for economical feasibility.

This is why I talked about "economics".

 

[Urwumpe]

Falcon 9 came from nowhere

SpaceX needed almost 10 years to get there. It did not come from nowhere, it come from a series of failures and a lot of investors money.

 

[MaverickSawyer]

My biggest beef with this announcement is the timeline. I have long learned to take these with a large grain of salt and a healthy dose of skepticism. I have no doubt that they'll eventually run this mission... just, not when they say they're planning to. I'd add, oh, five years, minimum, to that and consider it to be a valid target date.

 

[Urwumpe]

My biggest beef with this announcement is the timeline. I have long learned to take these with a large grain of salt and a healthy dose of skepticism. I have no doubt that they'll eventually run this mission... just, not when they say they're planning to. I'd add, oh, five years, minimum, to that and consider it to be a valid target date.

Well, I am not sure there. It is possible. Only theoretically, requires a grandmaster project manager to supervise it all... but even 2019 could be a realistic year for it.