News COVID-19 pandemic

What will happen after the Corona epidemic?

  • The population of Asia will be reduced, accelerating the sustainable development.

    Votes: 14 30.4%
  • The major civilizations will collapse.

    Votes: 12 26.1%
  • The human race will end.

    Votes: 20 43.5%

  • Total voters
    46
  • Poll closed .
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Quick_Nick

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There are even reports from Hong Kong quoting 20-30% decease in lung function after recovery.
Will wait and see if other doctors confirm this.

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Ripley

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...If he dies, does it really matter to us what he dies of? He's just as dead and gone...
To you and your family, maybe not that much :facepalm:
To the community around you, your friends and people you might unconsciously pass the virus, once you've contracted it assisting your (theoretically) corona-ill dad, it could care way more than you.

...this isn't the case with corona. If I catch it, I might sneeze, if my dad catches it, he probably dies, just like if he caught the flu. So what exactly am I missing???
You're missing some unbiased info.
 

Thorsten

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Come to think of it, the general public has enough trouble separating those two very different things...

Unfortunately I can't find such graphs too helpful either because

a) there is no 'flu' - there are very different strains of flu, ranging from the rather harmess but very contagious Swine Flu with a 0.03% mortality rate to the Avian Flu with a 60% (!) mortality rate in some strains (luckily it is not very contagious...) to the contagious and rather serious Spanish Flu with an averaged 2% mortality rate, however peaking in the 25-35% age group.

So by picking a harmless flu strain for the comparison one can make Corona look really really dangerous, by picking one of the more serious flu strains pales somewhat.

So the question should be - what flu strain is plotted?

b) As mentioned, the data of infected people may not be perfect - in fact there's serious estimates based on the initial spread pattern that the Chinese underestimated the actual number of infected people by a factor 5 (!) (which, incidentially, would bring the mortality they observe to what South Korea with extensive testing has) - so plotting 'after the fact data' which have been corrected for that effect against 'in situ data' which have not been corrected is not a sound principle either.

So the plot is made to scare people, which may be a good thing in the short run to get them to accept quarantine, but as far as I can see it is not an honest assessment of what can reasonably be inferred from the data.

In my view, there's no reason to either downplay not exaggerate the threat posed by this disease - it is really serious - but it's not something much deadlier than any flu.
 

jedidia

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Swiss gov just shut down non-essential services and club activities. No fencing for at least a month.... :cry:
 

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The PM has said everyone in the UK should avoid "non-essential" travel and contact with others to curb coronavirus - as the country's death toll hit 55.
Boris Johnson said people should work from home where possible as part of a range of stringent new measures.
Pregnant women, people over the age of 70 and those with certain health conditions should consider the advice "particularly important", he said.
People in at-risk groups will be asked within days to stay home for 12 weeks.
More than 1,500 people have tested positive for the virus in the UK - but the actual number of cases is estimated to be between 35,000 and 50,000.

Summary
UK PM Johnson: Everyone should now avoid social contact with others
Johnson: Virus "a few weeks ahead" in London compared with rest of UK
Macron orders French to stay at home - and says those who don't will be punished
Coronavirus infections outside China pass 87,000; case numbers in China stand at 80,860
Germany closes shops and other public places, after shutting borders
Stock markets plunge despite action from central banks
WHO director urges governments to test all suspected virus cases, not just serious ones

President Macron is announcing a raft of measures as he puts France on a war-footing to fight the virus.
Here are the key details:
All non-essential movement to be banned from Tuesday midday for 15 days; residents must stay at home
Punishments for those flouting the regulations
Army to be used to help transport the sick to hospital
Military hospital to be used in Alsace, near German border
Borders to be closed in agreement with other European Union countries
Second round of local elections postponed
No business, regardless of size, will be allowed to fail

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51917562
 
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RisingFury

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Slovenia "overreacted" to the outbreak a few days ago. We imported a lot of our sick from Italy and it didn't immediately start spreading. Once it did, we decided to immediately ban gatherings over 100 people and closed our schools.

We have more places to close, though. If it was up to me, I'd close all places meant for socializing. All bars, clubs,...

I don't know if it's just a statistical bleep, but for the last few days, the number of new cases has been declining.
 

Sunhillow

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Slovenia "overreacted" to the outbreak a few days ago.
....
I don't know if it's just a statistical bleep, but for the last few days, the number of new cases has been declining.
Please don't forget: the incubation period is ca. 2 weeks. As you see in other countries, an overreaction is far better than reaction based on actual numbers.
 

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Ok, I'm going to be blunt, I trust neither the cdc nor the who over this insanity. Why? Their data doesn't add up.
Fact: For most people it manifests as a bad cold and nothing more
Fact: In many people there may be no symptoms period
Fact: We're told this is serious because it has a much higher mortality rate than the flu
Fact: The vast majority of deaths are people with compromised immune systems that would likely succumb to the flu or a bad cold anyways

The last point is the one that's most disputable: people with weak immune systems or otherwise poor health are the ones that are severely affected by it, but the degree of existing ill health necessary to seriously endanger a person is quite a bit less than with a normal cold or flu.

The big problem with Covid is this: younger people are little enough affected that we probably could just power through this with business as usual, as the demographics that are dying don't overlap a lot with the demographics that are working, but most people aren't calloused enough to say "screw you grandma, you're on your own" in this sort of situation.

But since the virus is so quick to spread, and the symptoms in so much of the population are mild, the measures needed to contain the virus enough to not massacre the elderly are fairly drastic, and that will result in a fair amount of economic damage.

An interesting side note is that the really deadly flu varieties, not the seasonal stuff but the 1918 flu type of thing, can be as deadly to those with strong immune systems as those with weak: they trigger such a strong immune reaction that it does serious damage to the body. So with the 1918 flu, on top of all the young men that were cut down by WWI, you had a bunch that were killed by the flu towards the end of everything. But Covid doesn't do this, the death rate is heavily skewed to the elderly.
 

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I guess this means Eurovision Song Contest is definitely off then...?
 

RisingFury

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Please don't forget: the incubation period is ca. 2 weeks. As you see in other countries, an overreaction is far better than reaction based on actual numbers.

The incubation period is 2 to 14 days, with the average being 5. But yes, overreaction is best. I'm glad we're reacting. I wish we closed more places.

While I may not be at high risk of death, a lot of my family members are older. They certainly are. This thing is probably at least 10 times deadlier than the flu and much more virulent.
 

Linguofreak

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Please don't forget: the incubation period is ca. 2 weeks. As you see in other countries, an overreaction is far better than reaction based on actual numbers.

Just a heads up:
Actual = eigentlich
Current = aktuell

I have a feeling you meant the latter?
 

insanity

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Fact: For most people it manifests as a bad cold and nothing more
Fact: In many people there may be no symptoms period
Fact: We're told this is serious because it has a much higher mortality rate than the flu
Fact: The vast majority of deaths are people with compromised immune systems that would likely succumb to the flu or a bad cold anyways


What you're missing here is that a fraction of a very large number is still a large number. Our rate-limiting factor is that we have only a number of ventilators and only so many hospital beds and healthcare workers. So even if for most people, this presents somewhere between asymptomatic to mild it still can present worse for a lot of people (healthy and otherwise). Things like viral load, underlying comorbidity, and immune response all play a role.


Anyone who is telling you to not take this seriously is telling you to take a serious gamble with your life and the lives of those around you. This is an event that requires every single one of us to make sacrifices to our lives to ensure that this ends.
 

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I guess this means Eurovision Song Contest is definitely off then...?
Sadly that would have been the only place where no one wold look out of place, dressed up in air-tight suits and wearing masks...
 

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That's quite sad, would have been nice to bid the EBU(European Broadcasting Union) a fond farewell from a founder member.
Maybe next year...
 

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Is this a good idea?

he first human trial of a vaccine to protect against pandemic coronavirus is starting in the US later on Monday, according to reports.
A group of 45 healthy volunteers will have the jab, at the Kaiser Permanente research facility, in Seattle.
The vaccine cannot cause Covid-19 but contains a harmless genetic code copied from the virus that causes the disease.
Experts say it will still take many months to know if this vaccine, or others also in research, will work.
Scientists around the world are fast-tracking research.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51906604
 

jangofett287

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Unless something catastrophic happens to the planets geography, I doubt we're leaving the EBU any time soon. The EBU is not related to the EU.
 

jedidia

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As far as I understand it, the vaccine aims at forming antibodies against the protein that is responsible for the virus' high infection rate, not the virus itself, so testing should be save unless there's any completely unforeseen sideeffects. It seems to have been tested on mice without such, I guess at some point you just have to have some human subjects.

It would still be months untll the vaccine could be cleared for the public, though. Until any vaccine could be cleared.
 

Linguofreak

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Is this a good idea?

I don't think it's possible to really say, without a degree that I don't have, and more information than is in the BBC article. I don't see anything that, in my non-medically-trained opinion raises alarm bells, though.
 
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