Question Mars One? Has anyone gave a donation?

[jroly]

Let's look at the original timeline. Apparently last year they were going to launch 2.5 tonnes of food to Mars.

 

[richfororbit]

Original timeline, well 2023 was the first crew mission.

I never took any interest in Mars One until late 2015. I was against private or organisations from sending personnel or making profit. I saw space flight as a purely government en devour. But as Branson said, governments never had much interest in putting anyone into orbit. Which is true.

I thought to myself, well this could be a good idea by sending a crew for a permanent mission to live there. But who ever does, I think ultimately space exploration is really a short term agenda due to the lack of money to be made.

And if when it does become frequent for average people, it'd be in two centuries time, in the mean time have sporadic missions by personnel, government funded to some locations.

 

[Urwumpe]

But who ever does, I think ultimately space exploration is really a short term agenda due to the lack of money to be made.

Profits aren't everything that can motivate a human. Remember though, that everything costs money in this world and TANSTAAFL.

I disagree there - it is a short term agenda due to bad planning. If you look how much money goes around the world, a Mars mission is easily possible.



The key question is: How do you make enough of this money flow towards Mars, invest into Mars, even if profits might not come back in decades. And this only makes sense if you reduce the risk of the investment. Either by financial tricks and backups. Or by reducing technological risk.

Thus, you can't go straight to Mars. You need to do steps that are risky enough to have profits (if there are no risks, there are no profits in proper capitalism. If you have profits without risk, be scared, not happy) in sight, but never too risky. For example propellant depots in increasingly challenging orbits. Or automatic greenhouses for space. Or microgravity surgery. There are many fields, that are not yet Mars - but all have risks that need to be won.

 

[Col_Klonk]

I do like the Mars cofee mug, it is about £13.93, $20.
Mr Zubrin is an advisor for ...

Are you NUTZZzzzz :lol:

 

[richfororbit]

Profits aren't everything that can motivate a human. Remember though, that everything costs money in this world and TANSTAAFL.

I disagree there - it is a short term agenda due to bad planning. If you look how much money goes around the world, a Mars mission is easily possible.



The key question is: How do you make enough of this money flow towards Mars, invest into Mars, even if profits might not come back in decades. And this only makes sense if you reduce the risk of the investment. Either by financial tricks and backups. Or by reducing technological risk.

Thus, you can't go straight to Mars. You need to do steps that are risky enough to have profits (if there are no risks, there are no profits in proper capitalism. If you have profits without risk, be scared, not happy) in sight, but never too risky. For example propellant depots in increasingly challenging orbits. Or automatic greenhouses for space. Or microgravity surgery. There are many fields, that are not yet Mars - but all have risks that need to be won.

Without short term interest in making money, nobody will bother with orbital flight missions.

History has shown that, we can't use the Earth to compare those types of endeavors.

 

[Urwumpe]

Without short term interest in making money, nobody will bother with orbital flight missions.

History has shown that, we can't use the Earth to compare those types of endeavors.

If only short-term investments would matter in this world, 99% of the economy would fall apart. A lot of it depends on low-risk, low-interest investments as stabilization. A wind turbine in an average on-shore location for example needs about 9 years right now to start making profits. Shorter for the few remaining good locations. A ship needs about 6-8 years for that in the best case.

And sorry, history has shown by example, that all human activity is limited to Earth except few short escape attempts. Including the fiction called economy.

EDIT: Just to show you how long-term investments can be without being extremely profitable: Germany successfully sells 30 year bonds with 1% interest rate. And many do. Its the safest way to park your money.

 

[Artlav]

Just to show you how long-term investments can be without being extremely profitable: Germany successfully sells 30 year bonds with 1% interest rate. And many do. Its the safest way to park your money.

Huh?
That's 34% growth over 30 years.
Given the average inflation rate of 2% that was over the last 30 years, you would end up with about 71% of your money by the end.

Is that a type of scam, or am i missing something?

 

[jroly]

Artlav I agree bonds over the long term are a poor investment choice. It really is a ponzi scheme because many governments now a days keep increasing their debt levels and the current bond holders are paid by the government going further into debt by issuing new bonds.

I read an interesting article at the Mises Institute.
https://mises.org/blog/what-mises-would-say-about-austrias-new-70-year-bond

 

[Urwumpe]

Huh?
That's 34% growth over 30 years.
Given the average inflation rate of 2% that was over the last 30 years, you would end up with about 71% of your money by the end.

Is that a type of scam, or am i missing something?

Yes, but about the extreme, see here:

http://www.npr.org/2016/07/21/486854394/who-buys-bonds-with-a-negative-interest-rate

It can really make sense.

 

[richfororbit]

Yes, Earth bound meaning business occurs here, so no living on the Moon or Mars. Only some kind of real need for those locations could somehow make it a worthwhile risk.

 

[Urwumpe]

I read an interesting article at the Mises Institute.
https://mises.org/blog/what-mises-would-say-about-austrias-new-70-year-bond

Not really interesting, the self-citations actually make it read like a badly constructed comedy. What the author tries to avoid is to having to consider "pacta sunt servanda".

---------- Post added at 10:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:10 PM ----------

Yes, Earth bound meaning business occurs here, so no living on the Moon or Mars. Only some kind of real need for those locations could somehow make it a worthwhile risk.

Mostly it means that with all experience about economics having taken place here, it makes no sense to assume it would become different in space.

 

[richfororbit]

Yeah, obviously. That is what I had meant on the previous page.

 

[Urwumpe]

Yeah, obviously. That is what I had meant on the previous page.

Well, we have different perspectives or interpretations of it. For you, its a negative outlook, you feel like the short-term insanity of the stock markets is all that drives the economy.

I see it from the perspective that most of the economy operates in much longer cycles than microseconds. That strategies are followed, plans are made, risks mitigated, etc. And that it is even already possible to cash in profits before colonizing Mars. If you can't sell your services to Mars colonists, you need to find other customers. And the further your customers will travel with you, the further more you can expand.

 

[richfororbit]

Sure, all good and well.

But its very unlikely a society will workout on Mars or the Moon like it does here. It would be centuries from now.

 

[Urwumpe]

Sure, all good and well.

But its very unlikely a society will workout on Mars or the Moon like it does here. It would be centuries from now.

Can you even imagine what a century is?

Hint: Look at your turf, 100 years ago.

I can tell that where my house now stands, was 100 years ago the most important mail carriage road in the district. The road is now completely gone.

This was Wolfsburg 150 years ago (sorry, had no good picture from 1917 here, war, you know)

This was Wolfsburg, about 50 years ago:

This is Wolfsburg today:

A few decades mean a lot of change, from technology to society. Even without technological revolutions, things improve vastly.

How long do you think did it take until America had its first European city after Columbus? A journey to America took only slightly longer than a trip to Mars could take (Columbus: 67 days. Mars: 39 days) and was equally risky. And any development there was initially a massive economic undertaking (Building a ship consumed a large share of the wood, that a small country had)

The oldest permament settlement by Europeans in America had been founded 1496, BTW. Just 4 years after Columbus first discovered it. But the first settlement had already been founded with 1300 men in 1493.

 

[paddy]

1300 men in 1493 how many in 1500?
How many men on the Santa Maria died on the way there.
I really do accept that heading off to "Eric-land" was a big a deal than as heading to Mars is now but no way will we accept the same levels of losses.

 

[Urwumpe]

1300 men in 1493 how many in 1500?
How many men on the Santa Maria died on the way there.
I really do accept that heading off to "Eric-land" was a big a deal than as heading to Mars is now but no way will we accept the same levels of losses.

1. Can't tell exactly yet, but it should be possible to tell even that number. Between 1500 und 1650, 450,000 people immigrated from Spain to Hispaniola.

2. None. But he left 39 members of the crew there. When he returned, 11 had been dead, killed by members of the crew after some bloody fights over gold and native women.

 

[paddy]

We lost it because we had a mad king, with that many men head start..... how come they lost the place at all !!!!

But did not know those numbers at all, I stand corrected Sir.

 

[richfororbit]

I still think the space subject just can't be compared to here. Unless that Mask guy can do something, may be it may change my mind. But I think as I do put it on here nearly a year ago, just one mission to somewhere is the economics there is.:uhh:

 

[Urwumpe]

I still think the space subject just can't be compared to here. Unless that Mask guy can do something, may be it may change my mind. But I think as I do put it on here nearly a year ago, just one mission to somewhere is the economics there is.:uhh:

"Never tell people how to do things. Tell them what to do, and they will surprise you with their ingenuity." - George S. Patton