North Korea conducts nuclear test?

[SiberianTiger]

I wonder what the U.S. will do about this. Launching mass numbers of nukes at them will not help, but it seems like we are option less.

Thank you sir, but please don't. We wouldn't be happy to see Kim's toast dust falling out in and around our Vladivostok.

 

[MJR]

Thank you sir, but please don't. We wouldn't be happy to see Kim's toast dust falling out in and around our Vladivostok.

In my personal opinion, I don't like any of this. I am sure you guys feel mutual feelings about this.

 

[simonpro]

You'll probably do exactl ythe same thing you did about the soviets: Not a lot.

which is entirely the right course of action, rushing around shooting weapons at people is an incredibly stupid idea if your enemy has a demonstrated nuclear capability.

 

[Artlav]

Well, it holds USA&Co for now, but what if NK fires first?

Will a NK nuclear strike really cause a nuclear counter-strike?
Or, will those who lead our countries have enough sense to deal with it in another way?

 

[RisingFury]

No. But it would probably lead to North Korea becoming a dump for all non-nuclear things that go boom.

 

[Urwumpe]

Well, it holds USA&Co for now, but what if NK fires first?

Will a NK nuclear strike really cause a nuclear counter-strike?


Or, will those who lead our countries have enough sense to deal with it in another way?

Don't forget the automatisms of the world. If the US soil is attacked, the NATO will have to respond with the USA. This will not be a small skirmish then, like the Kosovo conflict, but the full machinery will start to run before any US politician could shout stop. The other NATO members will automatically turn into a pre-war state, assuming it is handled everywhere else similar to Germany: In such a situation, we would have the "V-Fall" ("Verteidigungsfall"/defense case), and the military would react instinctively. Reservists will be activated, mothballed equipment will be readied for activation, all bases will be in alert. If needed, the whole country could be ready to start fighting with the rest of the NATO in hours, and reach full mobilization in about 10 days.

There is no automatism saying, that nuclear strikes have to be responded nuclear. But the autopilot of the world would at least mean that the USA get ready to respond, and with them, the rest of the world's nuclear nations.

But considering that NK has only enough material for maximal 12 nuclear fission warheads (which is peanuts), a nuclear response is not automatically necessary. Harder would be estimating the strength of the NK military. Officially, NK has 1.2 million soldiers - armed to the teeth is a good description for the country. If they would be all in good health, moral and equipment, a serious opponent, even for the USA. Also the air defense network of NK is pretty dense, the air supremacy of the USA would be at least limited.

Depending on how much of it is true, if the NATO decides to answer with war, a series of nuclear strikes against key positions of the NK military would be thinkable, to move the odds further towards the NATO. Nobody would like to see hundred thousands of dead NATO soldiers. But if the political situation with the other countries (especially China) would be too hot to handle, it is likely that the nuclear option will not be taken, and a full blown war starting out from Japan and Korea would be the case.

 

[Eagle]

Nothing will happen unless the DPRK does something profoundly stupid, like try to invade RK.

Ill is just trying to bully for a concession and demonstrate his wares for the arms market.

 

[Andy44]

You'll probably do exactl ythe same thing you did about the soviets: Not a lot.

which is entirely the right course of action, rushing around shooting weapons at people is an incredibly stupid idea if your enemy has a demonstrated nuclear capability.

Spot on, except that your analysis holds even when your enemy is not nuclear-armed, as well. Even when you win a war easily there are always consequences to suffer for being aggressive or belligerent.

Well, it holds USA&Co for now, but what if NK fires first?

Will a NK nuclear strike really cause a nuclear counter-strike?
Or, will those who lead our countries have enough sense to deal with it in another way?

Urwumpe sounds correct, but I am of the opinion that if the American public catches wind that a nuke was actually fired towards us, even if the missile failed, it would be almost a dead certainty that the president would order a counterstrike, using at least one nuke to demonstrate resolve. Woe to the poor citizens of Pyongyang. That's the political angle.

The strategic angle would be the pressure from the Pentagon to eliminate all NK nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities ASAP before they can shoot any more at us; and this would include nuclear strikes to ensure the targets' destruction. The Pentagon runs various wargame scenarios for all sorts of situations, stuff you never dreamed about, so you can be sure that there is a plan for what to do with NK if they suddenly attack the US out of the blue. The president may demure on using nukes, of course, but I doubt it.

Also, since the Korean War never officially ended, and US troops have been dug in at the 38th parallel ever since, there is obviously a war plan in the event NK makes a move.

 

[Chipstone306]

Their more modern weapons delivery systems are pretty accurate. Not as good as western ones but pretty good nonetheless.
I find it interesting how so many people are cracking jokes about this. a state that effectively treats it citizens as prisoners, a state that refuses to take part in the diplomatic process has proven to the world that it has an effective nuclear deterrant and a lot of people don't seem to realise just what a headache that is.

And really when you factor in nuclear weapons...you dont have to have perfect aim . The fear of one going off does just as much psychological damage as a direct hit let alone the fallout.

 

[SiberianTiger]

North Korea Tests Lift Lid on Japan’s Nuclear ‘Taboo’

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aj8rDljD4nO8&refer=worldwide

“The threat is elevated and Japan should seek to arm itself with nuclear weapons,” former Japanese air force chief Toshio Tamogami said in one of two recent interviews.

---------- Post added at 18:41 ---------- Previous post was at 12:10 ----------

It is reported that North Korea test fired another rocket off its Eastern coast today. It is believed to be an anti-aircraft rocket of a type not known before; according to the report, it traveled 160 km.

 

[Urwumpe]

It is reported that North Korea test fired another rocket off its Eastern coast today. It is believed to be an anti-aircraft rocket of a type not known before; according to the report, it traveled 160 km.

Remember, it is North Korea. A country of 23 million citizens, 1.2 million soldiers, an unknown amount of police and domestic intelligence agents and a family of crazy dictators (Ok, his youngest son seems to be more scary, he studied in Switzerland and seems to be the first Kim who has developed discipline). whose scientists are gathered in two big projects: nuclear weapons and ICBMs. two projects which are already tough for bigger countries.

There will be no room for much more other developments - this rocket will be very likely either of Chinese or Iranian origin and at best modified. The range sounds much like a tactical BM.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Remember, it is North Korea. A country of 23 million citizens, 1.2 million soldiers,

Jeez, we are already outnumbered. I guess we have more Generals in the army than they do, though.

 

[Notebook]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8074527.stm

N.

 

[SiberianTiger]

I wish I could read the comment for this picture... Can anybody translate from Chinese, please?

 

[kklim]

It just says that it is a NK space plane model...

 

[Andy44]

Hmm...now that's an idea: why doesn't the US give NK the space shuttle program, hardware and all. NK will waste so much money on it they will collapse, just like the USSR did after Buran!

 

[SiberianTiger]

Hmm...now that's an idea: why doesn't the US give NK the space shuttle program, hardware and all. NK will waste so much money on it they will collapse, just like the USSR did after Buran!

Actually, "after" does not necessarily mean "because of". Typically, military expenses soak up much more funds than any space programme. And even having them high wasn't the only reason for the USSR's collapse. Don't also forget that North Korea and the USSR have always been totally different countries... Drawing parallels won't help to predict anything here.

 

[BHawthorne]

Military and space budgets infuses money into the economy via manufacturing sector. It actually stimulates industrial growth, not decline.

 

[Urwumpe]

Military and space budgets infuses money into the economy via manufacturing sector. It actually stimulates industrial growth, not decline.

Exactly. The real reason behind the decline of the USSR had been the other sectors of the economy, if there should be economic reasons at all. While military and spaceflight industry had been top, consumer industry was almost not existing.

 

[MJR]

Jeez, we are already outnumbered. I guess we have more Generals in the army than they do, though.

That is not true though. The North Koreans have a poor army. They feel big because they are threatening us with a nuclear war, but they wouldn't dare to get near the U.S with an invasion. They would get obliterated. A war with them would not last long. For instance, the Korean war was three years I think. Without China's help they would have been taken out. That is what I afraid for if war were to happen between us and North Korea. The Chinese will feel like we are becoming too powerful and will try a devastating move. Believe me, we do not want the east.