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Notebook
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I draw your attention to paragraph(h).
Off to start my Anderson Shelter.
Off to start my Anderson Shelter.
jedidia
shoemaker without legs
Well, my parents have a nuclear shelter in their cellar... It's going to get a bit cramped since the family has grown by 2... Not that I'm expecting any use of nukes. Unless Russia is invaded directly, nukes are off the table, and I don't think anybody's planning for that.
I've heard some assumptions that Putin might not make a move before the olympic winter games are over, though. No reason to piss of China if you don't need to...
Still... I still hold out hope that it's not going to happen. Not a lot. But god damn it, there's no telling how big this thing blows if it blows.
I've heard some assumptions that Putin might not make a move before the olympic winter games are over, though. No reason to piss of China if you don't need to...
Still... I still hold out hope that it's not going to happen. Not a lot. But god damn it, there's no telling how big this thing blows if it blows.
Linguofreak
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What about if NATO territory is invaded directly? This is something I hadn't considered when thinking about such conflicts earlier in life: The nuclear-armed NATO states are in a bit of a bind if Russia should make a penetration into Europe that can't be contained by conventional forces: either surrender everything east of France to a new Warsaw Pact, or bust out the nukes and give Russia the propaganda coup of NATO having made a first strike.
You could argue that that won't happen, because NATO has better this, that, or the other, but the Allies weren't planning on France being overrun in WWII either. On top of that, European states have largely underfunded their militaries on the theory that the US will come to their aid in any crisis, but the prospect of US troops on Russia's borders is largely what has brought about this crisis, or at least what Putin is using as an excuse, so the US can't deploy too many troops to Europe before Putin actually attacks NATO without either setting off Putin's paranoia, or giving him the excuse to act like his paranoia has been set off (not to mention that even aside from that, a domestic constitutional crisis, or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, could leave the US unable to attend to Europe). And changing the balance of military funding between NATO members takes years, whereas I could imagine the current crisis developing into a general strike westward, if Putin is so inclined, within weeks to months, maybe even days, of an invasion of Ukraine.
I do think the more likely course is that Putin will invade Ukraine, and the West will sanction Russia, and once Ukraine is overrun things will calm down for a while, but if he has success in Ukraine, Putin will almost certainly, whether in a week or in five years, start building up forces on the Polish border, and make the same demands he's making now about NATO returning to its Cold War membership. And then we get to decide whether to throw Eastern Europe under the bus again or risk direct confrontation with Russia.
When it comes down to it, Ukraine is Czechoslovakia, Crimea and Donbass are the Sudetenland, and Minsk is Munich. Fall Grün is now ready to be set in motion, and it's now probably too late to save Ukraine, and it's hard to imagine any course of events going forward that will do anything but embolden Putin. And here's the terrifying bit: the only thing that curbed Hitler's aggression was Soviet troops outside the Führerbunker: he was self-destructively belligerent to the last. If we need boots on the ground in the Kremlin to discourage Putin, things will get nasty.
jedidia
shoemaker without legs
Technically possible, but Putin would have to be utterly nuts to push his luck that hard. While I don't think highly of Putins morality, and he seems to think economics are optional, I do consider him a competent statesman, decent strategist and alltogether very sane. I don't expect him to do something crazy like that, just as I don't expect NATO to violate russian territorry apart from missile and air strikes at military targets close to the border.
Linguofreak
Well-known member
He seems saner than Hitler to me, yes, but at the same time, I was raised with the idea that bullying one's neighbors like that is proof that one is not altogether sane.
Much like Trump, there's a degree to which he seems sane and coolheaded and cunning, but also a note of craziness there that just keeps setting off alarm bells. And I very much wonder to what degree our judgment that Hitler was "obviously" bat@$&% crazy is a product of hindsight.
Of course, one thing that makes such judgements hard is that the existence of such a thing as sane human is far from obvious to me.
jedidia
shoemaker without legs
Admittedly, a lot...
Urwumpe
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Also, please note that people considered Hitler to be quite sane and a capable statesman as well (Especially if you have Mussolini as comparison). The insane Hitler came later, when he attacked the Soviet Union AS INTENDED. During the Blitz on England, he was still considered as a dangerous smart foe. After learning how he decided and wasted resources, we all know he must have been crazy.
I am sure, Putin COULD attack NATO main land, especially the baltic states, sell it as "protecting Russian minorities" and expect that NATO will give up because NATO appears to be in a poor state. Politically, he has enough sabotagers in our countries to hinder any resolute reaction. If the US republicans decide that this isn't their war...who could really stop Putin?
Linguofreak
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I've kinda lost touch with the GOP since Trump. The GOP I grew up with wouldn't have taken such an attitude, but apparently it is being expressed. My opinion is that it was a bad idea to add Eastern Europe to NATO and have the US remain in it at the same time, and that Putin has a point about feeling strategically threatened by Ukrainian membership in NATO, but Hitler had "a point" about Germany being mistreated at Versailles. But with Hitler, once he was making demands, it was madness (not to mention dishonorable) to try to appease him by feeding Eastern Europe to him bit by bit to avoid war, or to decide that his piecemeal annexation of Eastern Europe "wasn't our war", and the same applies to Putin in the present crisis. If he's willing to listen to reason, and if we have the sense to present the option to him, what needs to happen is that NATO needs to become mostly or entirely a European defense pact and US troops need to be withdrawn to the British Isles, or from Europe entirely. But if we're to do that without selling our souls, European militaries need to be larger, and it needs to be clear to Putin that trying to take Eastern Europe will be costly whether or not the US is involved. But a European buildup and US drawdown will take time, probably a decade, at least, if we're not going to sell Eastern Europe downriver, and Putin doesn't strike me as willing to wait that long. If he means to have war unless NATO withdraws to its Cold War territories within, say 5 years, and unless he is alllowed to annex or convert into a new Warsaw pact the entirety of Eastern Europe, then there will be war, and as in 1939, all we can do by trying to stop it is to dishonor ourselves by abandoning our allies and to make our position when war does come all the more perilous.
Notebook
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New Zealand plays Barry Manilow to repel parliament protesters
Protesters opposed to Covid-19 vaccine mandates remain camped outside parliament.
www.bbc.co.uk
Putin best take care, it could be ABBA next.
N_Molson
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I don't see that happen at all, honestly. Military isn't very popular in Europe, and in democratic countries it means that governments can't spend too much in defense.
In France, which is the most militarized european country (2.5% of GDP goes to defence), there is still limited popular support towards the army, and conscription has been suspended from 1997 (me and my generation never served in the army). The cultural background is quite different from the US one there.
Where we badly failed is that European Union should have been a defensive alliance. And Putin would probably accept Ukraine as a part of EU, because his "big devil" is of course USA through NATO.
Also, when France sells Rafale fighters which are certainly more capable and operational than the F-35, it could be nice to favor the "local" option...
Linguofreak
Well-known member
And there's the contradiction: the EU can't work as a defensive alliance if European countries don't spend significantly more on their militaries. If you don't want your foreign policy constrained by the need to keep the US around for defense, if you want to avoid crises like the present one, you have to be willing to fund your own militaries.
N_Molson
Addon Developer
Can't really be done in France. The issues with ageing nuclear power plants show that money is needed there too, and services like education and health are not going so well lately.
And its not only France, UK, Spain or Italy have their problems too...
MaxBuzz
Well-known member
a US Virginia-class submarine was discovered in the waters of Russia it ignored the demands to surface, after which the special means of a water hammer were used (the sonar turns on in an active position, on the submarine it feels like they are knocking on the submarine with a sledgehammer)
tass.ru
В Минобороны заявили, что в территориальных водах РФ обнаружили подлодку ВМС США - ТАСС
В ведомстве сообщили, что подводная лодка типа Virginia проигнорировала требование покинуть территориальные воды РФ и ушла после применения "соответствующих средств"
tass.ru
Urwumpe
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a US Virginia-class submarine was discovered in the waters of Russia it ignored the demands to surface, after which the special means of a water hammer were used (the sonar turns on in an active position, on the submarine it feels like they are knocking on the submarine with a sledgehammer)
View attachment 27911
В Минобороны заявили, что в территориальных водах РФ обнаружили подлодку ВМС США - ТАСС
В ведомстве сообщили, что подводная лодка типа Virginia проигнорировала требование покинуть территориальные воды РФ и ушла после применения "соответствующих средств"
Sure it was Russian waters and not japanese waters....
Kuril Islands dispute - Wikipedia
jedidia
shoemaker without legs
Well, I think I know who that is directed towards...
Urwumpe
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Well, Switzerland isn't member of the EU, but clearly an integral part of it... or lets call it in manager-speak "stakeholder". ?
Switzerland knows where our money is.
N_Molson
Addon Developer
Not only that, but Putin and Biden certainly both have accounts there. Maybe not under those names. "Smith" and "Smitseyev" maybe... ? ?
Tomorrow morning would be a good time to start a global thermonuclear war. Can't do that the week-end.
