I would say, Putin just triggered the second fall of the USSR.
He'll find out why...
He resurrected NATO too, maybe even European Union. That's something. Sometimes a good kick helps.
I would say, Putin just triggered the second fall of the USSR.
He'll find out why...
He resurrected NATO too, maybe even European Union. That's something. Sometimes a good kick helps.
president of Ukraine said that we will not give anything to anyone (there will be an attack on the republics from Ukraine)
Tanks And Military Vehicles Spotted On The Outskirts Of Donetsk - Tanks and military vehicles were reportedly spotted on the outskirts of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine by a Reuters reporter, according to Reuters.
The reporter allegedly saw around five tanks on the edge of the city of Dontesk, and two more tanks in 'another part of the town'. They said they did not spot any insignia on the tanks but that they were spotted just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed treaties declaring Donetsk and Luhansk independence.
That's a quote of German Journalist Peter Scholl-Latour from a TV report called something like "Russia in a pinch grip", 16 years ago...
Yeah, maybe. But it doesn't really matter. His TV report just shows that the current situation was actually predictable, when one tries to see it with the eyes of Putin and his supporters. I was just surprised it took so long until force once again determines power relations (which also contradicts the old and very simple saying of "violence is no solution" - it somehow always was in history).Didn't really improve the image of him. Long dead, still people drag him out, when they need somebody reinforcing colonial prejudices of the Arab world.
let's hope NATO will hold out for some more time and NATO will not collapse. war inside NATO is completely unnecessary nowHe resurrected NATO too, maybe even European Union. That's something. Sometimes a good kick helps.
Yeah, maybe. But it doesn't really matter. His TV report just shows that the current situation was actually predictable, when one tries to see it with the eyes of Putin and his supporters. I was just surprised it took so long until force once again determines power relations (which also contradicts the old and very simple saying of "violence is no solution" - it somehow always was in history).
let's hope NATO will hold out for some more time and NATO will not collapse. war inside NATO is completely unnecessary now
And the small incident of Turkey shooting down russian jets. But I think it happened more often than people think. Fighters in the Korean and Vietnam war getting flown by Russian 'instructors' etc. In a way, I'm amazed this is for now limited to just the two 'independent' regions. ( for now). It may be that he realized how costly a 'big war' would be, and sanctions would hurt Russia even more. And he may have realized that he can 'free' those regions and still get Nordstream 2 flowing etc.Its not like we didn't already have war inside NATO during the peak of the first cold war (Cyprus 1974). And nothing collapsed. It just caused too much paperwork.
Well, his concerns regarding Russian reactions just turned into stone-cold reality. And the same also applies to the failing engagement of the Western world in Afghanistan by the way (although not hard to predict). That TV report was from 2006, so 16 years ago. And I don't think he assumed that Russia has only one option. He assumed that Russia will only chose that one obvious option, based on the worldview of Putin and parts of the Russian society. There is always "shoulda coulda woulda". But things are what they are at the end of the day. Of course Putin could act different. Just like humans principally could act different to live in peace. But "man is not like that" (Scholl-Latour ).Except that he got things wrong all along. He bought the idea of this being simply a reaction to the west and Russia having no other choice. But thats wrong. Russia had a lot of choices. They simply decided to fight for satellites states around them to improve the wealth of Russia at the cost of the others. That worked great for the Russians during the Soviet Era and led to the rapid decline of the USSR. Especially the baltic states show the difference. In the USSR, they had been exploited. Outside they prospered. In the EU they thrived, while the NATO membership prevented any Russian interference there. There was no finlandization, countries enslaving themselves to not provoke the big neighbour.
Also its pretty late to "predict" a rise of nationalism in 2016. It was already out of control in 2013, after Putin established the old symbols again.
The problem is now: We have little choices how to react. We COULD interfere militarily in what will come, on invitation of Ukraine. But seriously: Most, if not all NATO members would prefer another option there. It would be expensive and risky, and we would be fighting on terms that favor Russia. More realistic would be supporting partisans, which Putin will label terrorists and which will involve Neonazi groups - no good future for Ukraine as democracy. There could be a decision in the UN security council, but I would not bet on it. So, what is left are economic sanctions. And there the question would still be: Diplomatic with the option to return to peaceful relations or a massive chain reaction, that would not just devastate Russia, but actually bring many countries in economic trouble? Also, with the latter option, military options would still be an option.
I don't know. The Ukrainians and the one Russian that I know are all pro-west to the bone, but of course, they're not local russians. As for Putin, it might be a sort of 'cascade effect' of him staying in power so long, because if you piss off enough moderates (or enough the 'heavy weights' in russian politics become so heavy that they start falling from the balcony) , all you have left to rely on are the nationlist hardliners. Putin's just the bad guy spewing threats on live TV , but behind him may be a bunch of generals with dreams of seeing actual combat before they retire and a bunch of oligarchs who'd love to get their hands on Ukrainian industry and resources.I don't have a solution. And I'm not even qualified and also not assigned to find one, and not paid to wrack my brain. All I can see are two sides of a medal, and that certain things are not very hard to foresee. Talking to Russian people that live in Germany, it turns out they simply have a very different view on political and social stuff than "we" have...
Mhhh... but is it that much different to the Western world? Putin is dreaming of a Russian empire, of course. Strategists in Brussels and Washington are dreaming of a Western empire, of course. I often hear these words that "we" have to compete in a powerful union against Russia and China. No one seems to be satisfied with a small d**k in this department. And at the end of the day oligarchy also drives the Western world.I don't know. The Ukrainians and the one Russian that I know are all pro-west to the bone, but of course, they're not local russians. As for Putin, it might be a sort of 'cascade effect' of him staying in power so long, because if you piss off enough moderates (or enough the 'heavy weights' in russian politics become so heavy that they start falling from the balcony) , all you have left to rely on are the nationlist hardliners. Putin's just the bad guy spewing threats on live TV , but behind him may be a bunch of generals with dreams of seeing actual combat before they retire and a bunch of oligarchs who'd love to get their hands on Ukrainian industry and resources.
I don't know. Yeltsin was probably more drunk than sober. I think we underestimated Putin and overestimated ourselves.Still we pretended that Putin is an improvement after Yeltsin. We had been so wrong.
I don't know. Yeltsin was probably more drunk than sober. I think we underestimated Putin and overestimated ourselves.