Humor Random Comments Thread

[steph]

I don't know. I think its opposite. We used overestimate Putin as great statesment and good strategian. But in reality, he stands for stagnation in Russia, a slow creeping decay in an advancing world. He has maneuvered Russia into a situation, in which he does not even have a successor for him. It can't be Putin-Medvedev-Putin-Medvedev until the universe freezes over.

Or he goes full Saburo Arasaka and downloads his 'engram' into a clone/offspirng . Wouldn't 'immortal dictator' be a nice hallmark for the 21st century? It's bad enough when they die. Though I wouldn't worry too much about that. Either Lavrov , Medvedev, or some other Lubyanka dude , maybe an oligarch, would pick up the 'torch' .Guys like these sort of start crawling out of the the woodwork whenever democratic safeguards don't exist.

And yes, the real tragedy is how much Russia misses out by getting trapped under another dictatorship. Imagine how amazing it would be if it were a normal democratic country. Perhaps denuclearization would be off the table, but otherwise...normal relationships with neighbours, maybe even a 'normal' alliance with the EU or even inclusion. It would be a win-win for everyone except the schmucls that hold the power nowadays

 

[clipper]

as the youth would say: oof

 

[TheShuttleExperience]

And yes, the real tragedy is how much Russia misses out by getting trapped under another dictatorship. Imagine how amazing it would be if it were a normal democratic country. Perhaps denuclearization would be off the table, but otherwise...normal relationships with neighbours, maybe even a 'normal' alliance with the EU or even inclusion. It would be a win-win for everyone except the schmucls that hold the power nowadays

I'm not sure if things would work that simple and if the Russian society is ready for, well, whatever kind of democracy one might establish. Also, denuclearization could mean the return of world wars. It's like pacifism, which would only work in an entirely pacifistic world.

 

[TheShuttleExperience]

as the youth would say: oof

View attachment 28003

Posted by the U.S. Embassy Kyiv... certainly helps de-escalating ?

 

[N_Molson]

as the youth would say: oof

That's part of the problem, the people we know as "russians" today have their medieval history, roots in Kiev. That's where anything important (politics, religion) happened back then. The slavic civilization has its roots there.

Posted by the U.S. Embassy Kyiv... certainly helps de-escalating

The lesson of yesterday Putin's speech is that we have to stop thinking that way. He might take his time, do things in a more or less covert fashion, but he isn't going to back down. Macron and Schöltz efforts in that way have been turned into ridicule, if not humiliation. War is coming, the current question is the scale of it. There will be no de-escalation at this point and US diplomacy understood that.

We used overestimate Putin as great statesment and good strategian.

I for myself thought he was somewhat rational. Yesterday's speech shattered my last illusions about that. He lives in a different reality (which is how you usually define madness), and this is very dangerous, because he has the key of 10,000 nuclear warheads.

 

[Urwumpe]

as the youth would say: oof

View attachment 28003

I'd like to report a murder.

 

[Urwumpe]

The lesson of yesterday Putin's speech is that we have to stop thinking that way. He might take his time, do things in a more or less covert fashion, but he isn't going to back down. Macron and Scholz efforts in that way have been turned into ridicule, if not humiliation. War is coming, the current question is the scale of it. There will be no de-escalation at this point and US diplomacy understood that.

(Not every German name requires Metal Umlauts)

Yeah, I think this will strongly backfire for Russia. Germany had resorted to some sort of "good cop - bad cop" approach, with Baerbock really letting an old veteran like Lavrov appear badly prepared for what came, while Scholz attempted the classic more friendly approach there. At the current pace of events, the current German veto against sending weapons to Ukraine (Even if Estonia just wanted to send surplus former NVA weapons to Ukraine) will have only a very short half-life.

The German government already effectively cancelled the almost finished North Stream 2 gas pipeline, after defending this rather counter-productive project for years, even against pressure from within the EU. Good for USA and UAE, rather untimely for Germany, but further isolates Russia from the western economies. Next in the line would be North Stream 1....

 

[Urwumpe]

Now Putin has received the permission to deploy Russian troops outside Russian territory. Since he already declared Ukraine to be Russian territory, does that now mean Poland?

 

[N_Molson]

The German government already effectively cancelled the almost finished North Stream 2 gas pipeline, after defending this rather counter-productive project for years, even against pressure from within the EU. Good for USA and UAE, rather untimely for Germany, but further isolates Russia from the western economies. Next in the line would be North Stream 1....

It is likely the energy prices will boom, in a much worse way than we anticipated. Some analysts say that 5€ for a liter of diesel isn't completely out of scope (1.8€ before the crisis, which was an historically high). It is probably the price to pay, and it will of course impact the way people live. I think that nuclear industry and transition to electric cars will suddenly make a lot more sense, and that's probably better for the planet. Its likely the end of the fossil-fuel-industrial era.

 

[N_Molson]

Update : Luhansk (thermal) power station was badly hit by an artillery strike, and is on fire. The whole region suffers from blackouts.

Biden is going to make a speech.

 

[Urwumpe]

Update : Luhansk (thermal) power station was badly hit by an artillery strike, and is on fire. The whole region suffers from blackouts.

The big one in Shchastia? That one exploded already 2014 and was only partially operational since. It supplied 98% of the electricity in the region before the Russian war.

 

[N_Molson]

Yes, that one. It is unclear what was hit, likely the transformers. From the video I'd say at least one is burning.

It seems they are currently targeting all key infrastructures (including cyber), which is usually the prequisite of a ground invasion.

 

[MaxBuzz]

Mali celebrates the withdrawal of French troops

 

[steph]

Hungary has joined the chat, putting troops on Ukraine's border. Humanitarian reasons. Though I don't know/think if it's anything more than a show. They'd basically be attacking the Hungarian minority areas. Then again, that's what we've said about Russia too

 

[N_Molson]

Mali celebrates the withdrawal of French troops

...that will redeploy in neighbouring countries, because the terrorist threat is still there and letting them in peace will inexorably lead to terror attacks in Europe, possibly even Russia.

 

[Urwumpe]

Mali celebrates the withdrawal of French troops

And the war criminals of Wagner come. At least that keeps them too busy to also mess much into the Ukraine....

 

[clipper]

And the war criminals of Wagner come. At least that keeps them too busy to also mess much into the Ukraine....

Not like Wagner is capable of engaging with a near-peer adversary anyway, as demonstrated at the Battle of Khasham in 2018

How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria (Published 2018)

Interviews and newly obtained documents provide the Pentagon’s first public on-the-ground accounting of one of the bloodiest battles the military has faced in Syria since deploying to fight ISIS.

www.nytimes.com

Archived link in case of paywall: https://archive.is/dyjgi

 

[N_Molson]

Short speech from Biden, he stated "this is the beginning of an invasion of Ukraine by Russia", and that the severity of US sanctions will be proportional to the extent of that invasion.

 

[steph]

Speaking of Wagner, some of them nearly got baited by Ukraine in 2020 in a sting operation. Not the best and brightest, especially since they don't require them to be ex-military. Possibly 'expendables' with few options, drawn by the good pay.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-...sting-operation-to-snare-russian-mercenaries/

That Hungarian mobilisation is giving me the chills. They'd be attacking from the south as well, and I wouldn't exclude a land grab from them as well, Nato be damned. They jusr signed a 15 years contract with Gazprom, and a convenient postponement of April's elections (which look a bit shaky for Orban, for the first time in a while) would be a state of emergency or war. Not sure if they could covertly host russian troops or not. Perhaps they're going for maximum effect, to 'make an example out of Ukraine'. Perhaps not now, but closer to April when western Ukraine would be full of people fleeing. Also, that would mean cutting off the eastern flank of Nato, troops and all

 

[Urwumpe]

Not like Wagner is capable of engaging with a near-peer adversary anyway, as demonstrated at the Battle of Khasham in 2018

How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria (Published 2018)

Interviews and newly obtained documents provide the Pentagon’s first public on-the-ground accounting of one of the bloodiest battles the military has faced in Syria since deploying to fight ISIS.

www.nytimes.com

Archived link in case of paywall: https://archive.is/dyjgi

A well-executed trap. Not sure how 40 German soldiers would have fared in such a situation of having to play the anvil. On one hand, it is something we always train for, but on the other hand I doubt we could coordinate our units that well. Its surprising that nobody in Russia noticed that they were baited - either Wagner really has to operate without constant secret information from the Kremlin, or the strategic reconnaissance of the Kremlin is in a bad shape. Possibly somebody had been too focussed on the small force to notice the rest of the units and overestimated their ability to approach undetected.