Question The Earth is scheduled for demolition

[Andy44]

Unless you're hiring Sardaukars,

Wow, now there's a memory jog.

 

[JamesG]

There's a problem with this reasoning and it is: how do you motivate the security forces to do their job?.

Besides being besides the point, appeals to their humanity? Setting units to watch/guard against each other? Allowing them to make contributions to the genetic stasis pool? Thats a leadership/political problem, not a technical, space one.

 

[Ghostrider]

Besides being besides the point, appeals to their humanity? Setting units to watch/guard against each other? Allowing them to make contributions to the genetic stasis pool? Thats a leadership/political problem, not a technical, space one.

I think it's one of the main points, instead: you're asking people to go against fellow humans with nothing as a reward. It may work with some fanatics but those critters are a minority (or are seriously sociopathic) or we'd be in deep trouble.

People are (rightfully) motivated by gains (material or not) they can enjoy (or that their loved ones can enjoy). Not by gains that some unborn and possibly never-born stranger that shares some genetic material with them may enjoy some time in the future.

Appeal to their humanity? Good luck with that. You're asking them to stay away from their families and be ready to kill other human beings for the sake of the aforementioned Son of Genetic Goo.

Unless Charles Xavier is on your team, it's going to be HARD with all capital letters.

 

[vonneuman]

You are assuming that the government would tell people about the impending doom. Not to sound like a conspiracy nut, with all the talk of mass panic maybe it is not the best idea to make that hunk-of-rock-coming-to-kill-us-all public knowledge. What governments should do is give a blank check to their space agencies, in three years who is going to care that they spent two thirds of the government's budget on the space program. The idea is to see how much of the project they can get done before the public finds out about the rock-of-death. When the news finally gets out, well it is time for more drastic means of motivation. You tell the workers that they are going with you. If that does not work, use the military. Court marshal anyone any one who refuses. Marshal law is a good idea at this point. If the military still gives you trouble even with the threat of court marshal, tell them that their families will be held countable for their actions.
This method is what we would call "morally gray. It is not the ideal solution but it may need to be done

 

[Sky Captain]

Problem is there are far too many astronomers out there to keep them all quiet. Such incoming extrasolar impactor most likely would be discovered by a nongovernmental group of astronomers or even by amateur astronomers who would then pass the information to all other astronomers out there to verify their observation. Also at first glance it will be impossible to tell whether the object will collide or not. It will take weeks of careful observation to be sure impact is certain and by that time everybody who follow the news will know there is an object from interstellar space headng into inner solar system. Since such large object from interstellar space would be groundbreaking news in astronomy it would be observed and followed by everyone who has big enough telescope.

 

[JamesG]

I think it's one of the main points, instead: you're asking people to go against fellow humans with nothing as a reward.

I'm asking you to not worry about that. Its a separate issue worthy of its own thread (ie: How do you control an "end of the world" situation).

What I am asking is what are the technical requirements of putting 10K human beings off-world with a reasonable chance (75%?) of long term survival in under 5 years?

 

[vonneuman]

I'm asking you to not worry about that. Its a separate issue worthy of its own thread (ie: How do you control an "end of the world" situation).

What I am asking is what are the technical requirements of putting 10K human beings off-world with a reasonable chance (75%?) of long term survival in under 5 years?

How to control the work force is a major part of the issue. Motivation is key when it comes to space flight. The only reason the USSR went to space in the first place is because they were afraid of what the US would do if they got there first. The same reason for why the US went to the moon.
When the USSR fell the US stopped its space program because there was none else who could threaten them from space. And now that China wants to go to the moon all of a sudden the US is interested in going back to the moon.
What I am trying to say is that motivation is one of the most important aspects of any endeavor, including space flight.
therefore, it is something that you have to look closely at when deciding if something is possible or not.

 

[JamesG]

No, that political decision has already been made and the control and motivation are in place, by whatever means that are outside of the scope of my question.

Otherwise we simply degenerate into squabbling monkeys as the hammer falls, and thus this topic is pointless.

 

[Ghostrider]

What I am asking is what are the technical requirements of putting 10K human beings off-world with a reasonable chance (75%?) of long term survival in under 5 years?

Why stop at 10K and put all your eggs in one basket? I'd take a clue from J.T. McIntosh's "One in Three Hundred". Build as many spaceships as you can and load as many people as you can, then launch as fast as you can. Probability will take its toll both ways - some will win, some will lose, some were born to sing the blues - and you'll end up with a sizeable population on where you're headed. I'd say Mars - it's got gravity, one hint of an atmosphere and your colonists (survivors) will have a lot of work to do for generations settling on it. Of course you'll have to send an advance expedition to build a shadow of a working colony - with the same criteria: build multiple rugged ships and launch as many as you can. Some will make it there and nobody will crucify you over the losses given the alternative. And you don't have to get the people back.

The more chances you give to people, the less problems you have. I know, it's quantity over quality but hey, sometimes it works.

 

[lockingtoggle]

Can anything be done?

Project Orion?

 

[eveningsky339]

Now everyone just stop right there.

I guess that would mean no Orbiter 2012?

One can only imagine how humanity would degrade in that period. Who, with any more than 3 years of income, would bother to work? As the days approached closer and closer to D-Day, the Earth would devolve into total chaos, mass hysteria, panic, and grief. Good luck with your beer party- good luck finding any beer!

I'm surprised that the social consequences hasn't been further considered. If we all found out we had three years to live, utter anarchy would ensure in a very short period of time, perhaps even days. Nobody would give a rip about money, debt, jobs, law, anything. It would all cease to matter. Gangs/tribes would probably form in short order and begin going around killing and raping for the fun of it.

Before we even begin to consider how to evacuate and sustain outside of our planet, how in the hey are we going to control this social chaos?

I would propose selecting an elite few (the criteria would be, unfortunately, subjective, as would the "choosers") to be "in charge." Government agencies construct concentration camps and enforce rigid discipline, with any sign of disobedience being punishable by death. Populations of "genetically" clean persons are to be rounded up and moved to these camps, and after some time of hard labor and strict punishment, the populations should be informed of this impending disaster.

Guards, camp managers, etc will be rewarded with a guaranteed spot on the evacuation vehicle, whatever it may be.

Harsh and perhaps cruel, yes... But it may work.

 

[Ark]

10,000 people offworld is pretty damn optimistic. IMO the smarter way would be very few humans and a lot of equipment. Take a huge variety of genetic material with you and create more humans in line with your ability to support more people. It seems physically impossible to have enough people offworld for a suitably diverse gene pool, genetic material to be grown into humans gives you a lot more genetic diversity for your launch buck.

 

[kevinvr]

The obvoius answer is .. learn to speak Chinese.
Soon as they find out about it.. which will be long before anyone else, they will send their readymade space colony to mars and start earth evacuation.
Second choice is ..... learn to speak Japanese.
Soon as they find out which will be long before anyone else they will send a robotic colonization team to Io and start earth evacuation 2 months later.
Third Choice is... learn Russian.
Soon as they find out which will be before anyone else they will send 600,000 soyuz rockets (converted underground ICBM's) full of people and supplies to Europa and live there happily ever after... Siberian educators will assist in teaching extreme survival 101 to all new arrivals.
Fourth choice, dig a hole 3 miles deep... fill it with food for 200 years (preferably canned goods), cover it with lead and go live there with your family.

 

[Ghostrider]

I would propose selecting an elite few (the criteria would be, unfortunately, subjective, as would the "choosers") to be "in charge." Government agencies construct concentration camps and enforce rigid discipline, with any sign of disobedience being punishable by death. Populations of "genetically" clean persons are to be rounded up and moved to these camps, and after some time of hard labor and strict punishment, the populations should be informed of this impending disaster.

Guards, camp managers, etc will be rewarded with a guaranteed spot on the evacuation vehicle, whatever it may be.

Harsh and perhaps cruel, yes... But it may work.

And at this point I'd say the human race would be not worth saving at all.

 

[andysim]

I would be happy we didnt blow ourselves up. Mother nature did. That at least is a plus.

 

[Ghostrider]

I would be happy we didnt blow ourselves up. Mother nature did. That at least is a plus.

In the end Mother Nature has always the biggest guns.

 

[eveningsky339]

And at this point I'd say the human race would be not worth saving at all.

Fair enough... But other than withholding information about the impending doom and concocting another reason for the giant rockets and Martian colonial equipment, one would be hard pressed to find a way to control mass-chaos.

Furthermore, I think it's obvious as to who is most qualified to run these little camps of mine.

 

[vonneuman]

No, that political decision has already been made and the control and motivation are in place, by whatever means that are outside of the scope of my question.

Otherwise we simply degenerate into squabbling monkeys as the hammer falls, and thus this topic is pointless.

I know what you are trying to say here. Humans are capable of amazing feats when it is properly motivated. IMO the end of the world is a pretty darn good motivator. All that aside, three years, I really don't see that happening at today's level of technology.

 

[Andy44]

I know what you are trying to say here. Humans are capable of amazing feats when it is properly motivated. IMO the end of the world is a pretty darn good motivator. All that aside, three years, I really don't see that happening at today's level of technology.

Perhaps the emperor can find new ways to motivate them.

 

[Jake]

This whole "save what you can from the humankind" thing would make a damn good series of scenarios for orbiter. You can have multipla missions, transporting materials/modules to orbit and/or to the moon surface, to build the facilities, you could have a strict time limit on them, hell, you could have multiple series of missions, for more factions (one would establish on the moon, another would build a series of stations at Lagrange points, a third would opt for going to Mars etc).