News WSJ: Europe Ends Independent Pursuit of Manned Space Travel

T.Neo

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An optimist is not more often wrong than a pessimist, but he lives happier.

:rofl:

That's a good quote.

Also, I can't really imagine getting out of the bed at all, believing that all is futile and nothing will change -

I do it all the time. What's so bad about it? ;)

I know that today is not like yesterday was and I can really believe with certainty that tomorrow won't be like today. Isn't that great? :thumbup:

No. Because if history is anything to go by, tomorrow will likely be worse than today. :dry:

After decades of spaceflight being a total failure compared to the original vision, and many overenthusiastic people coming and going, with their own wildly optimistic ideas, and failing into obscurity... how can someone really think otherwise of space?
 

Urwumpe

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No. Because if history is anything to go by, tomorrow will likely be worse than today. :dry:

Yesterdays yesterday, we had no electricity. Do you want to be without it again? 100 years ago, Germany was ruled by a emperor, who had more than just a few screws loose, women had not been allowed to vote and nobility was legalized. 85 years ago, we had the war against the rest of the world because somebody shot a single person with royal blood and killed a few other less important ones. 90 years ago, we had a democracy, 80 years ago, we already wanted a new emperor because the politicians got fed up with the citizens. 50 years ago, Germany had just joined the NATO and was quickly getting a new Army. just 25 years ago, the first German hacking club was founded and Challenger exploded. 10 years ago, we had the beginning of the war against terror, after ignoring terrorism for too long.
 

T.Neo

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Two possibilities: you hang out with the Emo crowd, or you're Shinji Ikari.

What's a Shinji Ikari? What's an Emo?

:lol:

I'm just a space enthusiast. Shouldn't that explain things enough?

Maybe I am a space unenthusiast... :shifty:

Yesterdays yesterday, we had no electricity. Do you want to be without it again? 100 years ago, Germany was ruled by a emperor, who had more than just a few screws loose, women had not been allowed to vote and nobility was legalized. 85 years ago, we had the war against the rest of the world because somebody shot a single person with royal blood and killed a few other less important ones. 90 years ago, we had a democracy, 80 years ago, we already wanted a new emperor because the politicians got fed up with the citizens. 50 years ago, Germany had just joined the NATO and was quickly getting a new Army. just 25 years ago, the first German hacking club was founded and Challenger exploded. 10 years ago, we had the beginning of the war against terror, after ignoring terrorism for too long.

Maybe Germany is a more optimistic place than South Africa. :dry:
 

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What's a Shinji Ikari? What's an Emo?

Shinji Ikari is an introverted and highly pessimistic 14-year old kid who happens to be an EVA pilot. Through the EVA, he can generate an AT (Absolute Terror) field in order to beat up Angels. He gets hurt a lot.

An "Emo" is a humanoid concentrate of negative emotions, completely generated within the entity itself and with absolutely no origin in the outside world. The "Emo" entities produce an AT (Antipathy Total) field that would make even Angels want to beat them up. They hurt themselves a lot.

Big difference: Asuka Langley Soryu would never throw herself at an Emo, as completely disturbed as she is.

Maybe Germany is a more optimistic place than South Africa.

They've got Oktoberfest, of course they're optimistic. And it takes one hell of an optimist to smile while eating sauerkraut.
 
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They've got Oktoberfest, of course they're optimistic. And it takes one hell of an optimist to smile while eating sauerkraut.

Sauerkraut is still pretty easy to eat while smiling, since sour makes happy. The Eisbein is the worse weapon of mass digestion.
 

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You know its sad when a GROUP of nations is being shown up by a single US based company.

Then again in my opinion this is just the spread of Apathy that has happened all over the place. As long as they can catch their Football in 3D HD ultra whatever. They don't care that even at china's EPICLY slow pace. Asia will reach the moon far before any other region.
 

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Asia will reach the moon far before any other region.

Well, they are 4 decades too late already, by now ;) If they will fly to the Moon in future, they might be ~6 decades too late. And they would experience the same thing: foot prints, a big show of "look what we can do", and then politicians will stop funding.

But I doubt we will see humans traveling beyond LEO in the first half of this century. The latest European irrationality is one another indication for this. NASA is far off as well. Russia also. I can't hear that empty words of "we have to go beyond" anymore. There is just talk, for decades. Also China does talk. And they don't plan to fly to the Moon before 2024 anyway. And even this seems more than optimistic.
 

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I'm tired of the whole space enthusiast paradigm of "I'm interested in it, thus it is universally useful".

Manned spaceflight doesn't make the Earth go round, unless you try to tweak reality to make it so. It makes nice news, yes... but soon people become bored with it and take it for granted.

And yes, while it may come with a whole range of useful spin-offs, it is a pretty inefficient R&D machine, spending a lot of money on things that have no intrinsic use to most people- the development of a rocket engine may see several advancements that 'spin off' into other fields, but the millions spent on building the engines that get bolted onto launch vehicles go towards those engines, not towards developing new technology.

Of course you can also say "manned spaceflight is necessary to catalyse this need for R&D", but this also just sounds like "I want my rockets". There is a lot of R&D that goes on in this world without manned spaceflight programs. And since manned spaceflight programs have the goal of manned spaceflight, rather than R&D of useful concepts, means that they're obviously going to be inefficient at that R&D in some way.

It could also be that manned spaceflight programs in the world have fell upon apathy or a mentality of "let's do the same thing again". That's more of a reasoning for manned spaceflight than against it.

"Manned spaceflight will become magically useful in the future" is a dead argument, since we're in the "future" and the usefulness suggested by so many in times past has not occured. The advantages, where they have come, have been far less directly linked. And the most directly linked advantage is not immediately visible ('satellite' is more a term to describe a fancy dish mounted on your house that gives you TV) and neither built nor serviced by humans in space.

Manned spaceflight is a good thing, and there are lots of ways to justify it... but you can't justify everything to everyone, and you certainly can't justify it by "it is magically good for you", nor can you automatically dismiss it as nonsense a la Proxmire.



If a manned mission to Mars finds an interesting new species of rock, and I say it is a waste of money, would I then not be able to pick up a rock in my own garden? :lol:

"manned spaceflight is necessary to catalyse this need for R&D" actually sounds like a great argument for manned spaceflight. Not only would it catalyze technological development, but economic spending as well, specifically in highly technical fields, which would increase the job demands and encourage higher education, which would help technological and economic development even further.


"I want my rockets" is a perfectly acceptable reason. Some of the largest industries in the U.S. and in the world are sports' competitions where the vast majority of the population are only spectators. Not to mention all the gaming markets and such.


But really, IMO if I had to address my U.S. Congress about it I'd start with the emotional argument, show how that leads into the economic argument, mention the progress of civilization, then finish it with the emotional argument again.


Spaceflight is an accomplishment of mankind. Throughout all of history, humans have been bickering with eachother, arguing and fighting over imaginary lines over the Earth, and various lusts and wants. Because humans think in terms of "us" and "them", "they" are always the enemy, it's always someone. But, for the first time in human history, even in the middle of a space race, in 1969, for a few precious moments, all of mankind, everyone as an "us", looked in awe as man set his first steps on a new world. It was the first time humans had ever stepped off the dust mote we were born on, and set foot on a new world. For a few precious moments, all of mankind, was "us", the only "them" was the vast unknown of space. For awhile that utopian dream of all mankind being united in spirit was realized, "One small step of man, one giant leap... For mankind.". This is the raw accomplishment of human exploration, in the tradition of exploration of this nation [USA], which was founded in a New World.

This awe-inspiring level of achievement gives a dream and a hope to the people of not just the United States, but to all the people of Earth, a common objective to work towards together, in growth and expansion towards the stars. This dream gives a strong encouragement to people who are in education, encouraging them to do all that is necessary to pursue the level of learning and education that is required to work with cutting-edge technology, and to blaze the path ahead in new fields, and expand the limits of materials and engineering.

It's more than just a glamorized dream, it has substance, reality. We can clearly see that the entire population was inspired by the progress of mankind during the Apollo Era, by the enrollment in higher education.
enrollment-us-higher-education_20071001.gif

And college-educated workers:
25economix-leonhardt-chart1-sub-blog480.jpg


In a time where the economy, and higher education supply and demand are all dropping, and people are losing jobs, this nation, and this world needs a dream, a hope and an objective to work towards. In dark times of high unemployment rates, massive national debt, entire nations going bankrupt, failing economy and defaulting loans, this world needs an objective to work towards, to inspire younger generations to work hard, to inspire the entire world with a common goal, and promote the general welfare of the people. This is all for a measly zero-zero-zero-point-five percent of annual spending. Less than half of one percent. If two national holidays were declared - George Washington day and National Bank Holiday, then the savings could double NASA's annual budget, and take us to Mars in just five years - half the time of the Apollo era.
We're not even talking pennies on a dollar, we're talking pents on the dollar, for this, the growth of mankind.

Throughout history, civilizations either grow, or they stagnate and fall. We are beginning to stagnate. Jobs and production are moving to other countries, the economy is dropping, we need to grow again. We need spending in highly technical fields for people who work hard, to make product, and cause the entire economy to pick up again, by creating jobs and product, which is closely related to many other highly technical jobs and product, such as materials science, chemistry, biology, nuclear science, medicine, aerospace engineering, aeronautical engineering, all these things will all directly benefit.

This nation needs to move forward, this world needs to move forward. And to move forward we need a direction to go, an objective to work towards. To get the entire world involved, it must be a common goal of all the people of Earth. To excite and inspire, it needs to be awesome, and majestic, like the roar and the flight of the shuttle into orbit, or like the exploration and colonization of alien worlds, where man has never gone before. This nation and this world needs this objective, and this dream, to move forward in the most noble endeavor that a species can ever perform - to grow. To improve. To develop. We need manned space exploration. We need to push our boundaries, stop holding still, and start growing. We need to return to the Moon, permanently, and we need to set foot on Mars. The choice is direct and simple - stagnation and failure - or exploration, and growth.




Mmm. My rant towards an imagined Congress meeting. Robert Zubrin had the shot once. Wish he would've gone a less technical route... Most people aren't that interested in technical stuff, especially not politicians. But emotions, every human being has.
 

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"manned spaceflight is necessary to catalyse this need for R&D" actually sounds like a great argument for manned spaceflight. Not only would it catalyze technological development, but economic spending as well, specifically in highly technical fields, which would increase the job demands and encourage higher education, which would help technological and economic development even further.

No it isn't, because it isn't needed to catalyse the R&D.

Getting space enthusiasts to believe this is pretty difficult though, of course.

"I want my rockets" is a perfectly acceptable reason. Some of the largest industries in the U.S. and in the world are sports' competitions where the vast majority of the population are only spectators. Not to mention all the gaming markets and such.

No, it isn't. Just because a small and obscure bunch of people likes an idea doesn't mean everyone should fork out money for it.

Spaceflight is an accomplishment of mankind.

Accomplishment in an unlivable hyperdesert?

Accomplishment maybe, but so is building a ship in a bottle. It isn't a really efficient means of outreach now, is it?

But, for the first time in human history, even in the middle of a space race, in 1969, for a few precious moments, all of mankind, everyone as an "us", looked in awe as man set his first steps on a new world.

Tell that to the guys in the Soviet space program.

Also, the only reason spaceflight was so richly catalysed in that era was exactly the "them and us" mentality.

As a person from the US, I'd imagine you cannot really grasp the international impact of US spaceflight history first-hand. I can, and while I agree with your point, that doesn't mean everyone does.

"One small step of man, one giant leap... For mankind."

What about womankind? :lol:

This awe-inspiring level of achievement gives a dream and a hope to the people of not just the United States, but to all the people of Earth, a common objective to work towards together, in growth and expansion towards the stars.

The stars? You mean those systems out there that are also a collection of unlivable hyperdeserts?

I really wouldn't keep bringing this point up again and again and again, unless the Earth was the richest environment for human habitation we know of in the entire universe. And probably the richest environment for human habitation for quite a way away.

It's more than just a glamorized dream, it has substance, reality.

Exploration beyond Earth orbit has unfortunately been a glamorized dream for the last 4 decades or so, for any space enthusiast in the modern era.

We can clearly see that the entire population was inspired by the progress of mankind during the Apollo Era, by the enrollment in higher education.

Why does it increase in 1960, and not 1969?

Ok, granted... maybe it is Sputnik and soforth, but there were also other forces going on during that time.

And college-educated workers:

Tell your Apollo success story to the discrepancy between supply and demand that appeared after 1990. :dry:

In a time where the economy, and higher education supply and demand are all dropping, and people are losing jobs, this nation, and this world needs a dream, a hope and an objective to work towards. In dark times of high unemployment rates, massive national debt, entire nations going bankrupt, failing economy and defaulting loans, this world needs an objective to work towards, to inspire younger generations to work hard, to inspire the entire world with a common goal, and promote the general welfare of the people. This is all for a measly zero-zero-zero-point-five percent of annual spending. Less than half of one percent. If two national holidays were declared - George Washington day and National Bank Holiday, then the savings could double NASA's annual budget, and take us to Mars in just five years - half the time of the Apollo era.
We're not even talking pennies on a dollar, we're talking pents on the dollar, for this, the growth of mankind.

Let's see... instituting new holidays to create savings, to spend on NASA and a mission to Mars?

How about trying to get rid of the huge US national debt?

Or fix various public services?

Or improve education?

There are so many 'real-world' applications for these things. The ideal of inspiring children to educate themselves is one thing, but the reality of actually educating them is another.

for this, the growth of mankind.

Into unlivable hyperdeserts. :dry:

Throughout history, civilizations either grow, or they stagnate and fall. We are beginning to stagnate. Jobs and production are moving to other countries, the economy is dropping, we need to grow again. We need spending in highly technical fields for people who work hard, to make product, and cause the entire economy to pick up again, by creating jobs and product, which is closely related to many other highly technical jobs and product, such as materials science, chemistry, biology, nuclear science, medicine, aerospace engineering, aeronautical engineering, all these things will all directly benefit.

That is an American problem, not a world problem. In fact, it is an oppurtunity for a lot of places, and also an oppurtunity that is being exploited by a lot of places.

Also, Earth is not a cave. There are plenty of applications for demanding technology that is used to help people right here on Earth.

This nation needs to move forward, this world needs to move forward. And to move forward we need a direction to go, an objective to work towards. To get the entire world involved, it must be a common goal of all the people of Earth. To excite and inspire, it needs to be awesome, and majestic, like the roar and the flight of the shuttle into orbit, or like the exploration and colonization of alien worlds, where man has never gone before. This nation and this world needs this objective, and this dream, to move forward in the most noble endeavor that a species can ever perform - to grow. To improve. To develop. We need manned space exploration. We need to push our boundaries, stop holding still, and start growing. We need to return to the Moon, permanently, and we need to set foot on Mars. The choice is direct and simple - stagnation and failure - or exploration, and growth.

Why is it always "growth"? What is growth worth, actually?

Do you know how many organisms grow? That does not make them special. What makes us special is our ability to do so many other things.

Our goal should be to enrich our civilisation and our global community, not to grow aimlessly. We need to develop. Now, that does not necessarily exclude space exploration... nor does it have space exploration as a requirement. Sorry... but space exploration is not a magical goal that will solve all of humanity's problems.

You say we need to establish a permanent presence on the Moon, but it is even more difficult to justify settlement here than it is on Mars. The Moon is a wasteland.

Already efficient space exploration goes against providing oodles and oodles of government jobs. Congress supports a monstrosity launch vehicle that will bring billions of dollars to Big Aerospace and support the Shuttle legacy 'standing army' workforce.

As an example, SpaceX has a pretty striking track record, with their fixed-cost contracts with NASA, and small workforce optimised for performance rather than political pork.

The Senate Launch System, on the other hand, will only reach its "fully evolved" (and way too large anyway, but that's beside the point) version in the 2030s, will only fly once a year, and will cost a billion dollars per launch. After billions of dollars worth of development... and all this, if it isn't cancelled.

In short, if you want to do meaningful space exploration, you actually have to step away from being a government welfare institution with 'space' slapped on the front...

My rant towards an imagined Congress meeting. Robert Zubrin had the shot once. Wish he would've gone a less technical route... Most people aren't that interested in technical stuff, especially not politicians. But emotions, every human being has.

Ah yes, Robert Zubrin, who wants to get to Mars at any cost possible...

And who makes velocity go away with Magical Aerobraking:

ZubrinFairy.jpg


:p

Yeah, I submitted to the emotional fun factor of spaceflight too. But you really have to realise the reality, that has been shouting in our face since the space age began. The vision of people like von Braun hasn't come to pass, for good reason.

And the world has moved on. We, the spaceflight enthusiasts, have not. We're still stuck in the 1950s, imagining the future.
 
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Urwumpe

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TNeo: It is a catalyst - spaceflight means a lot of high performance and high risk research that is not done in the free market economy, but later happily marketed once the risk is done. The same technology that you used for measuring the combustion of rocket engines is now used for doing the same in car engines - for a fraction of the price and with lots of extreme data to verify the models.

Again: Spaceflight is not about what you want to have in your household next year (or even in three years). It is about what you will have in your household in 50 years. Not everything can be used at home, but most has effects on your life later.

If you would decide to cease using any technology based on research done in the spaceflight programs worldwide, I would predict you that stone age isn't far away. Not because spaceflight started in the stone age, but simply the people who knew how to do such technology as it existed before spaceflight are no longer around or no longer able to do that for the prices that you could afford. There is no previous technology left - there is no technology left.
 

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TNeo: It is a catalyst - spaceflight means a lot of high performance and high risk research that is not done in the free market economy, but later happily marketed once the risk is done. The same technology that you used for measuring the combustion of rocket engines is now used for doing the same in car engines - for a fraction of the price and with lots of extreme data to verify the models.

A lot of high risk research is done as part of government programs and not part of the free market economy, that has nothing to do with spaceflight.

That research and development is one thing... all the other costs are another thing. If you could pursue research without bothering with spaceflight, you would have a pretty bad spaceflight program, but better return on your investment from a 'civillian' point of view.

Again: Spaceflight is not about what you want to have in your household next year (or even in three years). It is about what you will have in your household in 50 years. Not everything can be used at home, but most has effects on your life later.

I thought, spaceflight was about space flight.

If nobody cares about the spacefight excersise, why don't we just turn it into a theoretical excersise?

Because the space enthusiasts want their rockets, of course... :shifty:

If you would decide to cease using any technology based on research done in the spaceflight programs worldwide, I would predict you that stone age isn't far away. Not because spaceflight started in the stone age, but simply the people who knew how to do such technology as it existed before spaceflight are no longer around or no longer able to do that for the prices that you could afford. There is no previous technology left - there is no technology left.

Yeah, I'm not convinced. Nor am I suggesting the cessation of spaceflight activities or that spaceflight is intrinsically a bad thing, of course.

What other R&D programs cost billions of dollars to develop engine monitoring techniques? What R&D programs cost billions of dollars to create penetrating oil?

Do you really need to effectively spend billions of dollars, to invent freeze-drying? Or the cordless vacuumn?

From the spaceflight point of view, all of these things are useful 'bonuses'. From the practical point of view, they are products of an extremely inefficient R&D engine, where the inefficiency is all the things that are useful to the spaceflight cause.
 

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I thought, spaceflight was about space flight.

As we have already established, you think spaceflight for the sake of spaceflight is bad. So lets look at the earthly gains by spaceflight - which is first of all getting data.

If you don't like spaceflight and think it is all a waste of time...why do you waste your time with it?
 

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As we have already established, you think spaceflight for the sake of spaceflight is bad. So lets look at the earthly gains by spaceflight - which is first of all getting data.

I don't think it's bad, just that it is very difficult to justify from a practical perspective, especially considering its cost.

Getting data on what? Unlivable hyperdeserts? You may learn some things from space, but not all... surely the conditions on the Moon, cannot really be applied to any application on Earth.

If you don't like spaceflight and think it is all a waste of time...why do you waste your time with it?

Cause rockets is cool! :lol:

And because while it may be pretty useless currently, that doesn't mean that it is universally useless... there are things that are useful about it, maybe there are other useful things about it that haven't been discovered or quantified yet. But there's a big difference between "hm, let's see what we can do here" and "We Must Leave Earth Now It Is Our Destiny To Expand Into Space And Spaceflight Runs The Whole World It Is Essential".

I think the sort of... fervour that is created around spaceflight is about as bad as the people who just dismiss it out of ignorance.

You look at the cost of the LHC for example, which is I think a bit under $5 billion. ISS cost estimates go between $30 billion and $300 billion, and Apollo cost something like $170 billion, adjusting for inflation.

In terms of scientific research, spaceflight is exorbitantly expensive. One step toward better justifying it would just be a reduction of cost. Imagine if the ISS could have cost only $10 billion? You would have far fewer people complaining, and obviously a better return for that taxpayer money...
 

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I don't think it's bad, just that it is very difficult to justify from a practical perspective, especially considering its cost.

To quote a wise man: "The taxes can't be too high in a country where still millions can afford the latest Dieter Bohlen book."

What is the matter with the costs? The most expensive ESA program so far is the Herschel space telescope with one billion Euro. Do you think this space telescope is a waste of money and better spend for something else, even though the 1 billion Euro spread over all member countries of ESA is a pretty fair deal, since this telescope permits doing lots of astronomical and astrophysical research.

A manned telescope would sure not make sense, but what about areological studies? Rovers are still not smart enough. They will likely never be smart enough. Every single rock requires hours of planning, and all experiments have to be done in-situ on the place that the rock is located. And before you get the data, you can't tell if the rock you are now investigating is worth it.

Humans could do that much better - a single astronaut could cover the terrain of all unmanned Mars Rovers in less than a week, and do better experiments on the rock samples as any rover could that has only automated laboratories.

I consider unmanned missions not as superior to manned missions, but just as a cheaper alternative with lots of limitations and restrictions. A Fiat 500 is no Ferrari, but it still gets you from A to B as long as you don't expect the Fiat 500 to drive at 300 km/h.
 

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The Herschel space telescope is not a manned spaceflight program. ;)

How much would a mission to Mars cost? It would certainly be not in the billions, but in the hundreds of billions. To look at some rocks? It is pretty interesting to those of us who are perplexed by the geographic and even possible astrobiological history of Mars, but does it benefit people back on Earth? Is looking at a bunch of rocks really that important?

What other magnitude of things could you do for 100 billion Euro? Civil, even scientific projects?

Manned missions might be vastly better in terms of scientific return (and even scientific return per Dollar/Euro/Rouble/Yuan/Peso), but are they really worth it at that cost?

I am not asking the Mars scientist, frustrated at the limitations of the robotic missions he has been planning for years, or the eager space enthusiast, or the Zubrin analogue. I'm asking your average person on the street, the worker, the housewife. Do they actually care about Mars? How does Mars help them?
 

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I'm asking your average person on the street, the worker, the housewife. Do they actually care about Mars? How does Mars help them?

The average person on the street probably can't even remember the laws of thermodynamics. If you tell them how GPS really works (most believe the satellites track you in realtime) you're rewarded with a blank stare. They don't know how MRI works. They don't care how it works, mostly. So, they don't freakin' know what helps them or not.
But take away any technology they don't understand or care to learn about, and they'll scream bloody murder. I love democracy, but democracy should also imply widespread education and it simply isn't there. You can't ask the man in the street for decisions in research spending, or you can say goodbye to all the tech we take for granted now - including a good lot of medical tech.
 

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Except it isn't about technology or democracy. It's about the gain vs. cost of a scientific mission to Mars.

It isn't about the techological spinoffs; these are spinoffs, and for every dollar spent on researching these spinoffs, many more are spent on training, mission hardware, etc- stuff required to go to Mars, but not really required to do that research.

Isn't there something wrong with manned spaceflight, if it is costing us hundreds of billions? Many research facilities on Earth cost far less to construct and operate.

What research is occuring on the ISS right now? Has any of it looked promising to help anyone, in the next 50 years?
 
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