Well, its complicated. On one hand, it is pretty clear, that popular support for Lukachenka is on its lowest value ever. Sure much lower than the inofficial 30% from a poll leaked in 2016. He also starts to loose control over a certain amount of the political system. But otherwise, the system that kept him in office for now 25 years still seems to exist.
Its important to note that the protests are aiming only on removing Lukachenka and his dictatorship - no Russian flags, no EU flags, no calls for certain alliances. The sign of the revolution is the flag of Belarus from 1991 to 1995, before Lukachenka switched back to a design similar to the Soviet era flag from 1951 to 1991. The protests also have been extremely peaceful and loud so far, like a happy party or had been compared to the German Love Parade of the 1990s.
And it looks a lot like Putin is stupid enough to send military forces to Belarus today. That could be pretty inflammatory for the whole region, if they do anything Ukraine-like again. It is doubtful that Putin will permit any kind of new leadership in Belarus, that does not play by his rules - even if Lukachenka was officially no fan of Moscow and did name both Russia and NATO as threats to his country, he always depended on Russian favor to stay in power.
I really hope nobody does anything stupid.