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N_Molson

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France now asks french citizens to leave Ukraine.
 

clipper

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The foreign minister of China just said in Munich, that territorial integrity and sovereignty of countries has to be respected, and Ukraine is no exception.
Indeed he did, but it's important to note that China has been blaming NATO and the US almost exclusively in the last few weeks for 'interference' in Ukraine:

Because of the repeated incitements by the US and NATO, it is possible a large-scale civil war may break out in Ukraine, Li said.

Ukraine affairs should be left to the Ukrainians, but the external forces, especially the US and the NATO, have interfered in Ukraine's internal affairs, said Li.

Instead of treating Ukraine as a country worthy of respect, the US has exploited the country as a pawn in its geopolitical competition with Russia. This is the root cause of the tragedy in Ukraine, experts noted.


Straight out of CCP's Global Times report on this speech:

I don't expect China to outright support any Russian use of force but I highly doubt they'd do more than express some of that good ole concern when all is said and done, and that's good enough for Russia.
 

clipper

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I assume you mean CPC, because the SSR is long gone...
most resources in the English language go with the informal CCP rather than the official CPC
 

N_Molson

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Macron had Putin on the phone this morning, and it seems that Putin said "it was necessary to favor the diplomatic way". What game is he playing ?

Because right now, despite some mortar skirmishes, which probably were from the pro-Russian separatist and not the regular Red Army (they would use "more serious stuff" like MLRS obviously), there's nothing like an "invasion". For now. :unsure:
 

jedidia

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53,000 refugees from Ukraine have already arrived in Russia
To be honest, if I was russian living in the ukraine, I would probably pack up as well, even if nothing had been done to me. If that thing blows, I certainly wouldn't want to be there.
 

N_Molson

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Russian tanks are burning a lot of gasoil, and keep maneuvering (or patrolling) along the border :

bc86cf2_81bb6b1ebe624aeaa1aea0d62a348bc5-81bb6b1ebe624aeaa1aea0d62a348bc5-0.jpg
 

jedidia

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Well, at least the soldiers get something to do... nothing worse than having to sit idle not knowing if you're going to be sent to your death the next day...
 

Urwumpe

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Well, at least the soldiers get something to do... nothing worse than having to sit idle not knowing if you're going to be sent to your death the next day...

Or worse: Just sitting around in the wilderness far from home and be bored to death.

Boredom can cost you the readiness of one or two tanks per week...
 

Urwumpe

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Seems to be fairly effective, considering that most internet leaks of recent russian activities come from civilians, not Russian soldiers, like usual...
 

N_Molson

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That and obviously you don't want soldiers that are supposed to be "on the edge" texting to their loved one while sitting in the tank turret ?
 

Urwumpe

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That and obviously you don't want soldiers that are supposed to be "on the edge" texting to their loved one while sitting in the tank turret ?
Would be more funny if Russian and Ukrainian tank crews would be fighting each other or WITH each other on world of tanks...
 

N_Molson

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Would be more funny if Russian and Ukrainian tank crews would be fighting each other or WITH each other on world of tanks...

Some probably do !

Seems that Macron managed to organize a meeting between the two real antagonists : Putin and Biden. I'd say that's the way to go.
 

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The foreign minister of China just said in Munich, that territorial integrity and sovereignty of countries has to be respected, and Ukraine is no exception. I would say, this statement alone cooled things down a lot - Russia can't rely on China backing any military action up. Considering the "One china" politics of China, this of course raises some more questions, I NEVER really expected China to say things that clear.
Actually as an ethnic chinese with family still in mainland (even in the "Party"), this makes absolute sense, China will always argue for territorial integrity, especially since it contains massive minority within its fringe regions that they consider as part of their indivisible "core". So in international relations they would also argue for territorial integrity for nations with massive minority population on their fringe regions.

the One China Policy actually precludes you to support the claim that there is One China indivisible with all its territories, and if you recognize PRC that means it includes you recognizing Taiwan as part of China. Or if it's the other way around, if you recognize ROC (Republic of China currently headquartered in Taipei), it means you also recognize its claims to the whole mainland, parts of Russia (Tuvan republic or sth), and the whole country of Mongolia. Which is why you can only have formal relations with one but not with both.
 

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Meanwhile an E-8C shows up for the first time above Kyiv (at least on public trackers):
two US reconnaissance aircraft were affected by electronic warfare and abruptly aborted their missions (RC-135W and Boeing E-8C)
 

Urwumpe

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FORTE11, a Global Hawk from Sicily, is still flying over Ukraine, especially the region around Kharkiv.
 

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Actually as an ethnic chinese with family still in mainland (even in the "Party"), this makes absolute sense, China will always argue for territorial integrity, especially since it contains massive minority within its fringe regions that they consider as part of their indivisible "core". So in international relations they would also argue for territorial integrity for nations with massive minority population on their fringe regions.
It's a bit more nuanced in the Balkans and Ukraine, although I totally get the 'old state' policy of claiming it's 'their' land, and unfortunately Ukraine does it too. Most of the time those people just want more freedom in their regional choices, regardless of who 'the state' is. And, if it gets so bad that they want a state of their own or 'the state' doesn't allow them to exist, the question that arises is why is that the state's land. I should know, I come from a country where the state basically plugged its ears and pretended a minority doesn't exist. (actually, it's more like two or several, but the second one is universally hated so nobody cares, and the others are usually too few to get noticed).

Ukraine has regions where literally ethnic russians are the majority and the Ukrainians are the 'massive minority', yet that is Ukrainian land. It goes deeper, most of the russians there were brought half a century ago under Stalin, to 'colonize' and replace the ethnic ukrainians who teleported to the arctic. That also brings the question of what 'defines' a country. Its land? Its people? Infrastructure? A mix of all of the above? One could say that ideally this could have been defused partly even by giving greater autonomy and acceptance. Partly as in Putin might have invaded anyway because in all his 'reign' there's an acute lack of diplomacy and several cases of using wars and bloodshed to 'solve' popularity issues. And that's also something you see in the Balkans. Big state goes to war against small neighbouring state because they're easy and 'different', so it makes portraying them as enemy. I might be wrong, I haven't really looked into it that much, but most of the Yugoslav war can be summed up as 'christian old-school Serbia going to town on their muslim neighbouring country'. And that might have even been due to generals and leaders with grandiose dreams that found themselves irrelevant in the 90's and felt the need to kick stuff up.

Edit: Not to say that the russians there are 'guilty' of being in Ukraine. That in itself is no fault of their own, as the 'beauty' of dictatorships is that the average Joe doesn't get to have a say. And then some of the younger ones were born and lived in Ukraine all their life. For all intents and purposes, they're locals. Now, they can either try with autonomy (good luck with that in the current situation), but the opposite would basically mean telling them to f**k off to Russia cuz they're on Ukrainian soil (and, believe me, land claims and properties of the 'dislocated' are still very much a thing in former USSR countries, even now, so there may be Ukrainians eager to reposses grandpa's land that he had before he took the train to the Urals).But that , in itself, would still amount to 'deporting' the locals, so in a way, they'd be no better than Stalin.
 
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